Middle East Watch

Tehran is a Different Beast Now– warontherocks.com
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The Tehran that the world knew is gone. It died in the fires with former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war in February. His son and new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — wherever he is and in whatever physical condition — witnessed his father, wife, and other close family members die in the same airstrike that wounded him. The White House believed that the conflict would last only a few weeks, but the Islamic Republic has proven less fragile than anticipated by the United States and Israel, who now must deal with surviving Iranian leaders who experienced similar trauma and loss in early strikes. Washington has struggled to appreciate how its devastating attacks altered Tehran’s mindset: The White House instead still expresses confusion at “crazy” Iranian behavior that won’t return to prewar expectations.

I argue here that the “crazy” Iranian behavior confounding Washington in part reflects a subtle but important shift in Iran’s mindset. The U.S.-led attack was end-of-days fodder for true believers inside the upper echelons of the Islamic Republic, who listened to years of paranoid predictions about just such an apocalyptic attack at weekly Friday prayers. The surviving members of Iran’s inner circle — the New Tehran — are now acting based on an altered set of strategic principles. Despite the tactical brilliance of the U.S. military, the White House cannot find an endgame and risks turning a crisis into a catastrophe if it cannot adjust to Tehran’s new reality.

As a former CIA analyst, my job for many years was to set aside my personal views and instead see the world as Iranian leaders do. My goal was to get inside the heads of Tehran’s hardliners, who have very different perspectives than Western analysts. Such an exercise can be uncomfortable to do with violent authoritarians hostile to the United States — especially when the exercise challenges one’s core assumptions and values — but it provides helpful clarity when an adversary’s behavior defies expectations. Of course, Iranian leaders do not regularly broadcast their private deliberations — and their public statements can be misleading bravado and propaganda. So divining Iran’s true leadership decision-making is often more art than science. Yet, it is still possible to deduce much of their unspoken internal logic by analyzing regime actions and viewing the world through Tehran’s ideological lens.

At least 13 dead and 37 injured after truck smashed into tourist bus in horror crash in Egypt– www.thesun.co.uk
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AT least 13 people have been killed and 37 others wounded when a truck crashed with a tourist truck in Egypt.

The tragedy happened earlier today on the Cairo-Assiut Western Desert Road, which links the capital to the south.

Trump Signs New Order Targeting Russia And Iran– trendingpoliticsnews.com
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President Donald Trump has signed a sweeping new executive order establishing massive tariffs and sanctions targeting Russia and countries that help Moscow evade American restrictions, marking another major development in Washington’s efforts to confront foreign adversaries.

The order, signed Friday, October 16, implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, legislation Trump signed into law on September 18.

The measure establishes a framework for imposing tariffs of up to 500 percent on Russian imports while threatening additional penalties against countries purchasing Russian energy or helping Moscow circumvent existing sanctions.

However, the president also exercised his authority to temporarily waive the new penalties, leaving the administration with the ability to activate them at a later date.

Under the executive order, goods imported directly from Russia would face an additional 500 percent tariff. Countries identified among the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas could also face 100 percent tariffs on their goods if they knowingly make new purchases of Russian energy beginning October 18.

Israel’s far right find fertile ground among first-time voters– www.bbc.co.uk
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More than half a million first-time voters will cast their ballots in this election, which many Israelis see as existential for Israel’s future security and identity.

Polls suggest it will be a tight race, and the new young voters could help decide the result.

More than 16% are planning to support far-right parties – either Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power or the Religious Zionism party of his far-right ally Bezalel Smotrich – according to a poll for one of Israel’s most popular newspapers, Yedioth Ahronoth.

And almost three-quarters see themselves as “right or centre-right”, according to another survey for Israel’s leading Channel 12 television network.

“Itamar Ben Gvir gives me a sense of security,” said 20-year-old Mordechai, one of the young fans accompanying the politician to Ramle.

“Like everyone in history, from Trump to Moses, there are slips of the tongue that are a bit less good. So what? 90% of the things by Itamar are amazing.”

Israel’s military detains at least 40 ultra-Orthodox Jewish men accused of trying to evade draft– www.cbsnews.com
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Tel Aviv — At least 40 ultra-Orthodox Jewish men were arrested upon arriving Tuesday morning at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport on suspicion of attempting to evade the country’s military draft, the Israel Defense Forces said.

“The aforementioned individuals, who passed through the border crossing at Ben Gurion Airport, are subject to mandatory military service and will be tried in accordance with the law,” the IDF said in a statement.

The mass-arrest by military police was unusual in its scale, and it came amid a national reckoning over whether the ultra-Orthodox should have to serve in the military like the rest of Israel’s Jewish citizens.

The ultra-Orthodox have traditionally been exempt from military service, but in 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that in the absence of any law legalizing the exemption, the military must start drafting them.

Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel and the subsequent multi-front war, the issue of equality of service has been thrust to the forefront of political debate ahead of Israel’s looming national elections on Oct. 27.

Many Israelis who serve in the military, particularly in the reserves, have complained of having to take on an unfair amount of the security burden for the state.

Trump Officials May Soon Unleash Blacklisted Tankers to Cut Record Shipping Costs– www.westernjournal.com
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The Trump administration is reportedly weighing whether to let blacklisted tankers haul legal oil as record shipping costs squeeze American crude sales overseas.

The administration is discussing relief for so-called shadow fleet ships — which have carried oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela — to bring down record freight rates, a U.S. official told Reuters Wednesday. The discussions come days after the Treasury Department said its Oct. 8 sanctions round “effectively neutralizes the vast majority of Iran’s remaining shadow fleet network.”

The talks focus on allowing crude and fuel not under U.S. sanctions to travel on blacklisted ships, with companies needing the Treasury Department’s approval to use them, according to the official. Russian and Iranian oil would remain off-limits, the outlet reported.

The Energy Department, the White House and the offices of Democratic New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment. The Treasury Department did not comment on the record.

European diplomats say they were attacked by Israeli settlers in the West Bank; Israel urges caution before drawing conclusions– www.cbsnews.com
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A police investigation is underway after European diplomats said they were assaulted by Israeli settlers while visiting the occupied West Bank on Saturday, authorities said. Meanwhile, the prime minister’s office urged caution before “drawing conclusions,” and the reports come  “amid concerns about a coordinated campaign to smear Israel.”

Israeli police said they launched the investigation following footage circulating online, which appears to show several diplomats being attacked near the village of Taybeh. The statement said efforts were underway to locate the victims and identify the suspects “with the aim of bringing them to justice.”

“The Israel Police condemns violence of any kind and will pursue these investigations to their full extent, ensuring that everyone involved in such incidents is brought to justice,” the statement said.

Israeli drone attacks kill six Palestinians across Gaza despite ‘ceasefire’ | Israel-Palestine conflict News– www.aljazeera.com
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Israeli drone attacks killed at least six Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Saturday, according to Palestinian medical and emergency workers, as deadly raids continue despite a year-old “ceasefire”.

The attacks were in northern, central and southern Gaza, with one of the latest reported deaths near Jabalia refugee camp.

A Palestinian man was killed and several others wounded when an Israeli drone struck a group of civilians near al-Faluja cemetery, west of Jabalia, reported the Palestinian Wafa news agency, citing medical sources.

One Palestinian was killed and several injured when an Israeli drone struck the al-Mawasi area of Rafah, Wafa said.

Earlier, two people were killed and others wounded in an attack in the Tuffah neighbourhood of northeast Gaza City, according to staff at al-Shifa Hospital. Witnesses told Al Jazeera that the people hit were returning from the burial of an earlier attack victim.

President Trump has made it clear that Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Volodymyr Zelensky, is not the man to end the Ukraine War. He has pulled back verbal, and even material support, including scaling back intelligence support for Ukraine. The final straw for Trump came with Zelensky refusing to stop bombing Russian diesel refineries.

To Trump’s recent insistence Ukraine stop bombing Russian diesel refineries, Zelensky responded “The block is out. We’re done.” At home, Zelensky faces numerous allegations of corruption as more and more Ukrainians grow weary of fighting for a country that has no free elections.

Zelensky defies Trump, says Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian oil refineries– rmx.news
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Ukraine is ending a brief pause on attacks against Russian oil refineries and will resume the strikes, despite warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump.

“The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” Zelensky told the Financial Times in an interview published Thursday.

Ukraine had refrained from striking Russian energy facilities for three days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced what he called an “energy ceasefire,” Zelensky said. During that period, Russian forces continued attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian areas. Zelensky said more than 100 civilians were killed in Russian strikes over the past week.

Trump had pressed Ukraine to halt the refinery attacks, which he linked to rising diesel and fuel prices. He also moved to ease restrictions on Russian diesel imports. Moscow never confirmed it had agreed to any reciprocal pause on energy strikes.

Ukraine has for months used long-range drones to target Russian refineries in an effort to reduce revenue and fuel supplies supporting Moscow’s war effort. Western and Ukrainian assessments have reported significant damage to Russia’s refining capacity.

The Houthis of Yemen are wreaking havoc on the Red Sea area, and major cities of Saudi Arabia as well. The latest Houthi missile assault struck the Yemeni presidential palace, killing five.

Saudi Arabia’s deputy foreign minister claimed, “Iran continues to arm, train and support the Houthi militia in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. We think that the escalation by the Houthis at this latest stage of the conflict is encouraged by Iran.”

Houthi missile attack on Yemeni presidential palace kills five, minister says– www.bbc.co.uk
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The Houthis have been launching missiles and drones at airports, oil and gas facilities, and military bases in Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the strikes on the territory that they control in western Yemen, including the capital Sanaa.

On Saturday, a Houthi missile strike killed 13 people at Riyadh’s international airport, which was the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade.

Houthis Building Missiles With Chinese Parts, Can Target Saudi, Israel: Report– www.ndtv.com
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Iran-backed Houthis are working towards building advanced ballistic missiles that could strike targets across Saudi Arabia and Israel, using components shipped from China, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

The weapons under development appear to be modelled on Iran’s Kheibar Shekan, a precision-guided ballistic missile capable of manoeuvring to evade air defence systems, according to an investigation by Conflict Armament Research (CAR), a group that tracks weapons and their supply chains in conflict zones.

A missile based on the Iranian design could travel up to 1,200 miles, potentially bringing all of Saudi Arabia and Israel within striking distance.

The development comes as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have intensified in recent weeks, adding to tensions over a Riyadh-led blockade. The attacks, alongside Iran’s continued strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, have contributed to rising oil prices and caused US President Donald Trump to accuse the Houthis of behaving “very badly” in a post on his Social Truth platform.

Ship attack reports near Hormuz reach record high as oil exports slow– www.bbc.co.uk
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So-called assisted transits were a key factor in helping drive oil flows from the Middle East back towards pre-war levels in September. This does not include Iranian exports which have completely stalled as a result of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.

Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, said Iran has “evolved its strategy” in response to this loosening of its control over the strait and has been carrying out “near daily or multiple attacks every single day”.

“The aim here is to stop the ships going through and to deter others,” he added.

The IRGC’s navy has said strikes would not be “limited to the Strait of Hormuz” and later announced a “new deployment formation” across the region, according to state media.

Martin Kelly told BBC Verify that Iran is widening its attacks and targeting ships near the coast of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman.

A tanker was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar on Thursday 8 October, more than 500km (310 miles) from the strait, resulting in multiple reported casualties, according to Vanguard.

 

President Trump Considers Dropping “Mother of All Bombs” On Iran– wltreport.com
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Under guidance from President Trump, the U.S. military is reportedly considering dropping a massive bomb often called the “Mother of All Bombs” on Iran.

Specifically, the Pentagon is weighing plans to use the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb if the military resumes strikes on Iran.

It’s the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal.

Take a look:

At least 28 pupils and teacher killed after horror school roof collapse in Pakistan– www.mirror.co.uk
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A teacher and at least 28 pupils have been killed after the roof of a private school in Pakistan collapsed – with more feared trapped under rubble as a massive search and rescue mission is underway.

At least 40 children have also been taken to hospital after being injured in the incident in the country’s Peshawar city. Some are believed to be in critical condition.

All the children killed or injured were aged between seven and 13 years old, with the roof happening during lessons. Local news outlets report that the incident took place at a private school in Dir Colony. The owner of the school has been arrested and an investigation has been launched.

The school reportedly had three classrooms across its three storeys. The ground floor classroom had 45 children, the first floor one 40 and the second floor one 30.

Iran’s brutal rebels are strangling Middle East – UK must put boots on ground to break Red Sea siege, ex-Nato boss warns– www.thesun.co.uk
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BRITAIN should put boots on the ground in the Middle East to defeat Iran’s bloodthirsty Houthi rebels before global trade collapses, a former Nato commander has warned.

Escalating missile and drone attacks by the Iran-backed terror group have left the gulf kingdom reeling and oil prices surging across the world.

Houthi supporters hold up weapons during a protest against Saudi Arabia Credit: EPA
Smoke and flames rise from King Khalid Airport after the missile barrage that killed three Credit: Reuters

Sir Richard Shirreff told The Sun: “This is Europe’s issue, Nato’s issue and we cannot bury our heads in the sand.

“It’s a very complex problem. You need a properly thought through joint operation – land, sea, air, space, special forces, logistics.”

Another tanker catches fire near Hormuz after two cargo ships sunk in attacks– www.euronews.com
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By&nbspEuronews Persian

Published on

An oil tanker caught fire in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday after entering what Iran’s navy described as a prohibited zone with its tracking systems disabled, Iranian state-run media reported, the second such incident in the area in 24 hours.

Iran’s navy said monitoring teams patrolling the eastern sector of the Strait of Hormuz detected the tanker ablaze in the restricted area, according to a statement cited by the Mehr news agency.

The name, flag and crew condition of the vessel were not immediately known, nor was the cause of the fire.

On Wednesday, Iranian domestic media reported a fire on another tanker near the Strait of Hormuz after it also switched off its tracking equipment.

The incidents follow the sinking of two commercial vessels in the same waters in recent days. The container ship GFS Pride sank on Wednesday after catching fire. All 21 crew members were rescued.

How Iran made the Houthis into such a problem for the U.S. and its allies– www.cbsnews.com
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Yemen’s Houthi rebels have morphed over the last decade from being a little-known group in northwest Yemen, to Iran’s most potent ally in the region and a central opponent of the United States and its allies across the Middle East.

While Iran’s other proxy forces have been depleted in recent years, the Houthis have taken center stage in the Middle East, offering yet another example of how a smaller, guerrilla-style force that’s dug in on the ground can cause asymmetric damage through hard-to-repel aerial attacks.

In support of their Iranian benefactors, the Houthis launched initial attacks on Israel not long after the U.S. joined the Jewish state in strikes across Iran on Feb. 28, sparking the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s richest nations and a key American ally, is now bearing the brunt of the Houthis’ attacks, which have killed at least 20 people at Saudi airports over the last week. Along with other allied groups, the militants have also attacked Saudi oil infrastructure, helping drive up global energy prices by threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which, like the Strait of Hormuz, is a key maritime chokepoint for oil and gas shipments.

Trump says Houthis are ‘purposefully trying to drive up oil prices’ to help Iran– www.washingtonexaminer.com
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President Donald Trump blasted the Houthis on Tuesday, suggesting that the recent slate of attacks against Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure are aimed at intentionally raising global oil prices.

Over the past week, Houthi rebels operating out of Yemen launched deadly attacks against Saudi Arabian oil refineries, pipelines, and the main airport in Riyadh.

Trump claims he isn’t thinking about Israeli elections– www.washingtonexaminer.com
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President Donald Trump said he has not focused much on whether he will endorse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his reelection bid.

“We haven’t even thought about it,” Trump told reporters Tuesday morning before traveling to Alaska. Immediately after, Trump teased that he could wade into the election in the future.

President Trump Fires Warning Shot to Houthis After Latest Attacks on Saudi Airport * The Gateway Pundit * by Cristina Laila– www.thegatewaypundit.com
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President Trump on Tuesday fired a warning to the Houthis after the terrorists fired missiles at Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport.

Twelve people died and hundreds were injured after the latest Houthi missile attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.

The airport shut down operations on Saturday as officials assessed the damage.

The US Government warned citizens to avoid Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport.

One US citizen died in the airport attack, officials said.

Full statement from Trump:

The Houthis are behaving very badly. I thought they learned their lesson a year ago when we bombed the HELL out of them and, at their request, stopped.

They’ve been silent for a long time, but now they’ve emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, which is a Failing Nation, with No Navy, No Airforce, the World’s Worst Economy, and 301% Inflation, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections — NOT NICE.

Somebody should explain to them that I’m not running in the Elections, I’ve already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE, but I’ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Live Updates: Houthis threaten U.S. with “swift and painful” response if it joins Saudi Arabia’s strikes on Iran-backed group– www.cbsnews.com
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The foreign ministers of the U.S., the U.K., Australia, Canada and 23 other countries, many in Europe, have released a joint statement condemning hostile activities by Iran on foreign soil.

The statement came on the heels of British Prime Minister Andy Burnham saying a recent security incident at England’s RAF Fairford air base, which was until recently home to U.S. long-range bombers, was “almost certainly directed” by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

The countries said Monday that they “condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities against us and our partners.”

Linking the RAF Fairford incident to other recent attacks in Europe “targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists, and U.S. interests,” the countries said: “Any attempt by Iran to threaten, silence, intimidate, harass, harm, or coerce people on our territories through proxies or any other means is unacceptable.”

“Anyone who conducts hostile activities on behalf of Iran, or any other state, should know that we will take action to identify, investigate, disrupt, and prosecute these acts.”