04b Theory and Analysis

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Monday on CNN’s “OutFront,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) claimed President Donald Trump’s actions in Iran were the “height of incompetence.”

Host Erin Burnett said, “I got to start with this new reporting coming out of Axios, that U.S. intelligence has raised serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make the nuclear concessions. And that Director Ratcliffe of the CIA, that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have all expressed concerns about the agreement. What’s your reaction to that?”

Kelly said, “I’m not surprised to hear that. I haven’t verified that. I haven’t seen the intelligence you’re talking about. But, you know, as I listen to, you know, how you describe this, agreement, this one and a half page MoU that is going to be signed and then 60 days of negotiation. I mean, the word that comes to mind to me is incompetence.”

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President Donald Trump’s explanation for the latest escalation “doesn’t make sense,” Larry Johnson has told RT

The US and Israel carried out their latest strikes on Iran and Lebanon in a deliberate effort to sabotage the ongoing peace talks, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson has told RT.

On Wednesday local time, the US struck Qeshm Island and targets in southern Iran in response to the crash of a US AH-64 Apache attack helicopter off the coast of Oman – an incident US President Donald Trump blamed on Iran. Tehran, however, has refused to confirm that it was responsible for the crash.

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As A.I. systems become more agentic and take on more autonomy in daily life, they will increasingly interact with one another rather than with humans, according to Amanda Askell, Anthropic’s resident philosopher. “Human input is going to be rarer and rarer. That’s the thing that we need to prepare models for,” Askell said at the Bloomberg Tech Summit in San Francisco last week. Askell’s non-technical role reflects a growing trend among leading A.I. labs to incorporate humanities expertise. But she also sees a future in which A.I. may be able to do her job better than she can. “What [A.I. models] are good at is these deeply human skills,” she said. “Eventually, Claude is going to be a much better philosopher than I am, and probably be much better at every aspect of my job than I am.”

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On April 15, technology podcaster Dwarkesh Patel published a two-hour interview with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. For roughly forty minutes, Patel asked one question six different ways. The question was this: If American-made compute trains AI models with the serious cyber-offensive capabilities Anthropic’s Mythos Preview demonstrated — and that compute is sold to a strategic adversary — what responsibility does the seller bear?

Huang’s answers hovered a safe distance away from the question. AI is a “five-layer cake,” he told Patel, and ceding any layer to China would be industrial suicide. The Chinese, he argued, already have enough compute to do whatever they intend to do, so marginal sales do not change the strategic balance. By the end, Patel was visibly worn down. Huang accused him of arguing from extremes and of thinking in absolutes.

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Anti-data center activists typically cite concerns about water usage, pollution, or the cost of building the data centers themselves.

Many individuals are sincere in their activism. But public opinion on data centers is likely being shaped by foreign actors, according to a report from the Bitcoin Policy Institute. (RELATED: CHRIS JOHNSON: AI Data Centers Can Win Over Skeptics. But It Must Learn From Fracking) 

BPI’s head of research Sam Lyman explained Wednesday that China uses social media as a “gain of function for their propaganda” on The Hill’s “Rising.”

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A federal grand jury in Montgomery, Alabama, recently handed down an 11-count indictment against the Southern Poverty Law Center for wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. According to the Department of Justice, the SPLC secretly moved more than $3 million in donor money between 2014 and 2023 to individuals affiliated with the Ku Klux Klan and other violent extremist groups. To hide the trail, prosecutors say, the payments were routed through fictitious entities such as “Fox Photography.”

According to the indictment, a 55-year-old organization that built a brand on hunting hate has actually been bankrolling it. The temptation for conservative Christians will be to read that as simple vindication, and to a degree, it is. But that reading is too small. The SPLC did not collapse into alleged fraud because it found some exotic evil; it collapsed because it surrendered to an ordinary one. Fear is easier to sell than hope, and an enemy keeps the donations coming. This indictment is as much a mirror as a verdict, and the Church should be the first to look into it.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping may not need to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan to put the island, the U.S. and the global tech economy in crisis, according to national security experts.

Some advisers to President Donald Trump reportedly fear Xi could move against Taiwan within the next five years following Trump’s recent summit with the Chinese leader, Axios reported. One Trump adviser told the outlet the summit signaled a “much higher likelihood” that Taiwan could be “on the table” during that window, warning that the highly vulnerable U.S. semiconductor supply chain would not be ready for such a crisis.

National security experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that this is simply not the reality on the ground.

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The wind picks up dust from the unpaved road one afternoon in December as Jack van Honk turns into a ramshackle neighborhood in Lambert’s Bay, on the west coast of South Africa. A stocky woman in a red patterned sundress steps out of a small home painted palest sea green, her ochre-dirt yard crowded with potted plants, many medicinal. She smiles broadly, deep wrinkles creasing a face that is cherubic and yet careworn beyond her 47 years. “Doctor! I missed you,” she beams, her husky voice barely more than a hoarse whisper.

Maria carries a rare genetic mutation that is almost unknown outside of southern Africa. Its effects have been to calcify a part of the brain called the basolateral amygdala, and to thicken and scar the vocal cords. A friend of Maria with the same condition lives several hours inland, and sometimes they meet when van Honk brings them to Cape Town for brain scans and other tests. “It helps to know I’m not alone,” Maria says.

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China has launched a national programme that will assign every humanoid robot manufactured in the country a unique digital identity code, effectively a citizen ID, but for bipedal machines (those that can balance and walk/run on two legs).

The initiative, called the Humanoid Full Lifecycle Management Service Platform, was announced on Friday. It is led by the Humanoid Robotics and Embodied Intelligence Standardization committee, which is under China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (via South China Morning Post).

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Dante’s famous 14th century epic poem, “Inferno,” which is the first part of the Italian writer’s “Divine Comedy,” represents the first time a giant impact of a massive object falling from the heavens was envisaged, according to an expert in the specialized field of geomythology.

In the poem, the massive object in question is the Devil himself, Lucifer, who fell onto the Earth after being expelled from heaven. Yet, according to Timothy Burberry of Marshall University in West Virginia , this fall and subsequent impact is described by Dante in very similar terms to an asteroid impact.

Burberry is a professor of English and an expert in geomythology, a field which involves searching old folk tales, myths and stories for evidence of real geological events. Written between 1308 and 1321, Dante’s “Inferno” depicts the main character — Dante himself — being guided through Hell by the spirit of the ancient Roman poet Virgil.

In what is considered one of the greatest works in the history of European literature, Dante and Virgil travel to the Underworld, where they are taken across the River Styx to Hell by the ferryman Charon — in fact, two of Pluto‘s moons, Charon and Styx, are named after these details.

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Charged with federal crimes for allegedly making false statements to banks and making wire transfers in the names of companies that didn’t exist, the Southern Poverty Law Center hired Hunter Biden’s lawyer (among many others) and signaled an Orange Man Bad defense: Mean Donald Trump is having us prosecuted as a partisan attack, because we’re politically left and he’s politically right.

Previewing the strategy with an opening salvo on April 28, the SPLC’s small army of lawyers filed a 27-page brief (and do remember that page count) demanding that the courts protect their client against the DOJ’s cruel public lies on scary Fox News. The SPLC posted the whole brief on its website, and you can read it here. It claims that Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has falsely claimed that the SPLC never told law enforcement about things learned from its informant program, when they actually did. Screenshot of the opening statement, after a long table of contents and table of authorities that took up five whole pages:

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By now, it’s probably hard to find anyone in the United States with a political pulse who hasn’t heard about last week’s indictment of former FBI director James Comey. It asserts that Comey threatened “to take the life of, and to inflict bodily harm upon” Donald Trump by posting “a photograph on the internet social media site Instagram which depicted seashells arranged in a pattern making out ‘86 47.’”

Trump, the nation’s 47th president, contends that “86” is a “mob term for kill him.” More benignly, restaurant workers use it to refer to running out of an item or getting rid of a dish from a menu. There’s even a restaurant in Palm Desert, California, called Kitchen 86. As professor Mary Anne Franks remarked, the “86 47” shell arrangement is “a very ambiguous statement at best.”

True threats of violence aren’t constitutionally protected. The US Supreme Court defines them as “statements where the speaker means to communicate a serious expression of an intent to commit an act of unlawful violence to a particular individual or group of individuals.” The Court has explained that “[t]he ‘true’ in [true threats] distinguishes what is at issue from jests, ‘hyperbole,’ or other statements that when taken in context do not convey a real possibility that violence will follow.”

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As climate change intensifies, scientists are becoming increasingly concerned about how animals will cope with a more unpredictable world. One way to gain insight is by studying how animals have already responded to natural climate fluctuations. But for long-lived, social animals like humans and other primates, gathering this kind of evidence takes time.

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Just before midnight on Nov. 24, 2025, New Castle County police officers conducting a routine property check in Wilmington’s Canby Park spotted a white Toyota Tacoma parked after hours. What initially appeared to be a standard traffic stop uncovered a detailed terror plot. The suspect — a University of Delaware student — was found in possession of a converted machine gun, more than 100 rounds of ammunition, body armor, and a handwritten notebook mapping out a planned attack on the campus police department, including entry points, escape routes, and the name of a specific officer. When FBI agents interviewed him, he stated that achieving martyrdom was “one of the greatest things you can do.” The acting U.S. Attorney called it “a quintessential example” of law enforcement collaboration that stopped a catastrophe.

Public safety professionals have spent two decades training to detect threats like the one in Delaware, yet it was a chance traffic stop that ultimately exposed it. But the threats arriving now are far subtler. State-sponsored reconnaissance, espionage, and pre-operational surveillance do not announce themselves with machine guns and manifestos — picture a graduate student flying a drone over a shipyard, a photographer lingering near a port crane, or a series of probing visits to a water treatment facility. If our patrol officers are catching terrorism by accident, they are almost certainly missing foreign adversary surveillance entirely.

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Start with what might be called the epistemic layer—how we come to know things. People are increasingly relying on AI to know what is true, what is happening, and whom to trust. Search is already substantially AI-mediated. The next generation of AI assistants will synthesize information, frame it, and present it with authority. For a growing number of people, asking an AI will become the default way to form views on a candidate, a policy, or a public figure. Whoever controls what these models say therefore has increasing influence over what people believe.

Technology has always shaped the way citizens interact with information. But a new problem will soon arise in the form of personal AI agents, which can change not only how people receive information but how they act on it. These systems will conduct research, draft communications, highlight causes, and lobby on a user’s behalf. They will inform decisions such as how to vote on a ballot measure, which organizations are worth supporting, or how to respond to a government notice. They will, in a meaningful sense, begin to mediate the relationship between individuals and the institutions that govern them.

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America’s war on student smartphones is intensifying. Roughly two-thirds of US states have moved to restrict phone use in schools. The educational logic is straightforward enough. If these devices distract our kids, lock the gadgets away and learning will naturally improve—a strong prima facie case, to be sure. Yet new nationwide evidence suggests the story is more complicated than this basic common parental and teacher intuition.

A fresh NBER working paper by Stanford University’s Hunt Allcott and co-authors, “The Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches,” examines one of the most stringent approaches—lockable phone pouches that physically prevent access during the school day. Using a dataset spanning thousands of schools, the researchers take advantage of a kind of natural experiment by comparing outcomes before and after adoption against similar schools that didn’t adopt the policy.

If the goal is to keep kids off their phones while at school, mission accomplished. On those terms, the policy works. Phone use plunges with pouches—fewer GPS pings on campus and far less in-class use, according to teachers.

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“The half-life of humanity is currently around 35 years,” said Nobel laureate in physics David Gross as he concluded an evening lecture at the German Physical Society’s conference in Erlangen in March. Put another way, the physicist believes that in a little more than three decades, there is a 50 percent chance that our species will be extinct.

The alarming statement followed Gross’s estimation that the risk of a nuclear war was increasing from 1 percent per year to about 2 percent annually. After the lecture, the audience was visibly pensive. The current world situation and the award-winning speaker’s warnings hung over attendees like a dark cloud.

“I’m still hoping game theory will come to the rescue,” another physicist later told me at the conference. The rules of logic—provided everyone follows them—would prohibit a nuclear first strike, this reasoning goes.

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For years, the way large language models handle inference has been stuck inside a box — literally. The high-bandwidth RDMA networks that make modern LLM serving work have confined both prefill and decode to the same datacenter, sometimes even the same rack. A team of researchers at Moonshot AI and Tsinghua University is making the case that this constraint is about to break down — and that the right architecture can already exploit that shift.

The research team introduces Prefill-as-a-Service (PrfaaS), a cross-datacenter serving architecture that selectively offloads long-context prefill to standalone, compute-dense prefill clusters and transfers the resulting KVCache over commodity Ethernet to local PD clusters for decode. The result, in a case study using an internal 1T-parameter hybrid model, is 54% higher serving throughput than a homogeneous PD baseline and 32% higher than a naive heterogeneous setup — while consuming only a fraction of available cross-datacenter bandwidth. The research team note that when compared at equal hardware cost, the throughput gain is approximately 15%, reflecting that the full 54% advantage comes partly from pairing higher-compute H200 GPUs for prefill with H20 GPUs for decode.

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Day after day, new Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and her fellow Democrats demonstrate how much of their agenda is simply about securing power.

Spanberger signed a bill Monday that added the Commonwealth of Virginia to the National Popular Vote Compact, which is a misguided and downright unconstitutional attempt to get around the Electoral College in presidential elections.

The compact, which has now enlisted 18 states and the District of Columbia, would make the state’s Electoral College votes be whatever the national popular vote is, potentially nullifying democracy in the name of democracy.

I’d like to note that this move is awful for several reasons, the first one being that the National Popular Vote idea is a toxic one that undermines America’s federal, constitutional system.