Iran Watch

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America’s fight for independence continues to inspire other people around the world 250 years after the Declaration of Independence. 

Exiled Persian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi posted a statement on X on July 9 in which he compared the courage of his fellow Persians who stood up to tyranny in spite of horrendous massacres earlier this year to the indomitable spirit that won the American Revolution and World War II. It is remarkable to note that just after the celebration of America’s 250th birthday, the Founding Fathers are not only still setting an example for American patriots but also for all freedom lovers in many diverse and ancient lands on the other side of the globe.

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The United States and Iran traded some of their heaviest fire since last month’s ceasefire agreement, but the latest round of fighting has exposed just how badly Tehran is struggling to match American firepower.

U.S. forces have landed most of the blows in the latest volley, pounding roughly 170 targets over two days while Iran’s retaliatory strikes on U.S.-linked bases in the Middle East were limited and largely intercepted by air defenses.

The U.S. military said its strikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure tied to Tehran’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

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BEIRUT: A United States military delegation has met with Lebanon’s army in Beirut to discuss the implementation of Israel’s withdrawal from one of the “pilot zones” in occupied territory, a Lebanese military official told AFP on Saturday (Jul 11).

Under a framework agreement reached on Jun 26, Israel will gradually withdraw from areas of southern Lebanon where it has sent troops as part of its military campaign against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia movement that has long battled Israel.

As part of the agreement, the long-disempowered Lebanese military will take full control of two small areas dubbed pilot zones.

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An Iranian news agency infamous for its close connection with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — the regime’s terrorist military and brute squad — has published a direct threat once again against President Donald Trump

Fars interestingly did not apparently post the threat on its English language X channel, at least as of Saturday morning. It did, however, makes the threat its pinned post on its Persian language channel.

The message is allegedly from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, presuming that the son of the late mass murderer Ali Khamenei is actually still alive. The statement does express the official regime position. Grok’s translation of the Persian says, “We pledge to take revenge for the pure blood of the martyred Leader and all the martyrs of these two wars from the criminal and disgraced killers.”

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Oil prices rose on Tuesday morning following a report of an Iranian attack on commercial ships in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The reported attacks in the waterway, which typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic, reaffirm the fragility of the U.S. and Iran’s interim peace agreement, as they negotiate a permanent end to their war.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery traded 1.5% higher at $73.09 per barrel, extending earlier gains.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery advanced 1.5% to $69.56, after closing at its lowest level since Feb. 27 in the previous session.

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President Donald Trump said Monday the United States would either reach a deal with Iran or “finish the job,” renewing his threat of military action as Tehran projects defiance following the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Indirect US-Iran talks ended last week without any public sign of headway toward a lasting peace.”We’re either going to make a deal or we’re going to finish the job. OK. And it won’t be tough to finish the job. I’d rather make a deal, because I don’t want to affect 91 million people,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

“We can knock down their bridges in one hour, we can knock out their energy supply…. They don’t have any money now. We haven’t given them any money.”Trump spoke after Khamenei’s weekend funeral where, rather than looking weakened by the war, Iranians appeared to be united and determined to shape what comes next.Iranians call for revengeIranians called for revenge Monday during the funeral procession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and voiced their opposition to negotiations with those behind the supreme leader’s death.

“We don’t want a deal. We want Trump’s head!” they chanted, referring to the US president.His death as a “martyr” has whipped up fervour among Iranians, according to mourner Gholamreza Khanbabai, who was also present in 1989 for the funeral of Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic republic.“If I had to compare this ceremony to that one, I’d say… the crowd seems more enthusiastic this time,” said Khanbabai.

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An “unknown projectile” struck and caused a fire on an oil tanker off the coast of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, British maritime security agency UKMTO said.

The incident occurred near one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, despite a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran and ongoing efforts to secure a lasting peace agreement.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said the incident took place eight nautical miles east of Limah, Oman.

Read moreWhy is France betting on Oman amid the Hormuz crisis?

“A tanker has reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound,” UKMTO said in a post on X.

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We’ve told you about Calla Walsh, the former staffer for Elizabeth Warren, and her radical views on Islam (she loves it) and America (she hates it). 

Turns out Walsh attended the funeral for Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei, the brutal Islamist dictator who killed tens of thousands of Iranian protesters and oppressed women for years. That doesn’t seem to matter to Leftists like Walsh, however, because her desire to destroy America outweighs all concerns.

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Iran is likely to face challenges in clearing its oil inventories even after restrictions on its exports are lifted, as its biggest customer tweaks its energy strategy while oil from other suppliers floods the market, according to analysts.

China, the world’s top crude importer, has not been particularly enthusiastic about purchasing Iranian oil, despite traditionally being the main buyer of the country’s energy. “In fact, the Chinese do not show any enthusiasm to buy much oil from anybody,” Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus at FGE NexantECA, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.

China’s crude imports have dwindled since the Iran war started in late February, depressing oil demand. In May, they plunged 29% from a year earlier to 7.82 million barrels per day, the lowest level since February 2018, according to Wind Information.

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A cargo vessel in the Red Sea has reported coming under attack, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre, a British maritime security alert service, said Sunday, amid a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

The body said it received a report of the incident 30 nautical miles (56 km) southwest of the port city of Al Hudaydah in Yemen.

“A cargo vessel has triggered a distress alert stating that they are under attack by unknown assailants,” the UKMTO said in a post on X, adding that authorities are investigating the incident.

It urged vessels to “transit with caution”.

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Iranian state media outlets reported Wednesday, July 1, that two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed in the western city of Paveh in Kermanshah Province.

The incident occurred on the evening of June 30, near the border with Iraq’s Kurdistan region. State television described the event as “a terrorist and cowardly act.”

It added that “exact details of this incident and the measures being taken to identify those responsible are under review.” Two additional IRGC members were wounded in the shooting at the victims’ homes.

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The massive funeral event in Iran over the weekend for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei included calls for murdering President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from both members of the crowd and official speakers at the events.

The UK Guardian noted that the first official day of the elaborately staged funeral on Saturday was a bit smaller, more subdued, and less “militant” than the angry crowds swarming the street on Sunday.

The crowd was treated to such inducements as a government-authorized presentation from poet Mohammad Rasouli, who mixed his poetry with a call for Trump’s murder.

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It’s Ground Hog day again but this movie isn’t funny.

Oil prices edged higher in early trading Wednesday as investors reacted to Iran’s decision not to hold direct talks with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Tuesday in Qatar. Brent crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.69%, to $73.45 a barrel by 12:08 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 63 cents, or 0.91%, to $70.13 a barrel, Reuters reported. Iranian officials and Qatari mediators said the U.S. delegation would meet with intermediaries rather than hold direct talks with Iranian officials, the outlet said (Fox News).

Iranian clerics call for Trump’s assassination: ‘Religious duty’ to kill US president and Israeli PM ‘must not be neglected’, says Tehran’s Assembly of Experts

What is the Iranian plan or strategy?

Institute for the Study of War: Iranian officials are simultaneously employing diplomatic outreach and military coercion to pressure regional states to support a new “regional security mechanism,” likely to advance Iran’s long-standing objective of expelling the United States from the Middle East (ISW).

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An agreement signed four days ago between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, which links Israel pulling its forces out of southern Lebanon with Hezbollah being disarmed, could effectively keep Israeli troops in the neighboring nation indefinitely, analysts say, and that could make a final peace deal between the U.S. and Iran harder to achieve.

Hezbollah has thus far refused to lay down its weapons, and the Lebanese government has proven unable to make the well-armed Iranian-backed group do so.

“This is ‌not an agreement, it is an imposed settlement,” a senior Lebanese politician, who declined to be named, told the Reuters news agency. The lawmaker was quoted as saying Lebanon’s army is simply incapable of forcing Hezbollah to disarm.

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The poll also found a boost to Trump’s approval ratings in the wake of the deal.

A new poll has revealed that the majority of voters in the United States support the peace deal to end the Iran war that was reached earlier in the month under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

Among likely voters, the Big Data Poll found that 62 percent support the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the two nations. Among Trump voters, that support was 77 percent, while 50 percent of Kamala Harris voters supported the deal.

The poll also found a boost to Trump’s approval ratings in the wake of the deal. In total, 44.4 percent of likely voters said they somewhat or strongly approve of the job Trump’s doing as president. This is up from May, when 40.7 percent of likely voters said the same.

Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said, “The war was never popular and voters have been frustrated over what they perceive to be a lack of focus on domestic issues. But this is the first month since the start of the Iran War the picture was a little rosier for the President and Republicans. That said, these results and the transcripts of interviews conducted make it very clear that the fate of the Republican majorities in November is almost certainly tied to a lasting peace with Iran.”

The poll was conducted between June 26 and 28 of 2,971 registered voters and 2,604 likely voters nationwide, and has a margin of error of 1.8 percent for registered voters and 1.7 percent for likely voters.

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Oil prices were slightly higher on Tuesday as energy market participants closely monitored the potential for fresh talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with August delivery were last seen up 0.2% at $73.32 per barrel, erasing earlier losses. The contract, however, is on track to end June roughly $19 lower, or 20% lower than the closing session on May 29. Brent crude futures with September delivery, meanwhile, rose 0.5% at $74.29.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery traded 0.5% higher at $71.08, putting the contract on course for a $16 drop, or 19% fall, from last month’s closing.

The moves come as oil traders monitor the prospect of U.S.-Iran talks in Doha on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said talks between the two countries would take place in Qatar’s capital on Tuesday, claiming via social media that Tehran had “requested a meeting” following an exchange of strikes over the weekend.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Monday reportedly denied that talks were scheduled over the coming days. They added that an Iranian technical delegation’s visit to Qatar this week was not related to U.S. officials visiting the country.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is facing a new round of violence in the country’s Kurdish-majority west, raising questions about whether a long-simmering Kurdish insurgency is entering a more active phase as fragile talks between Iran and Washington continue, experts say.

The flare-up matters beyond Iran’s borderlands because Kurdish opposition groups were recently viewed as a potential pressure point against Iran during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — and now some Kurdish voices fear they could be left exposed as Washington and Tehran return to fragile diplomacy.

In recent days, Iranian security forces have been killed in several reported attacks and clashes across western and northwestern Iran. Four Iranian security personnel reportedly were killed and several others injured in two separate armed attacks Tuesday, reported The Jerusalem Post, in an analysis by Seth J. Frantzman, citing Iraq’s Shafaq News.

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US envoys met with Qatari mediators on Tuesday in Doha to discuss negotiations with Iran, the Gulf state said, after Tehran and Washington agreed a memorandum of understanding this month to halt the Middle East war.

Iran said a team would go to Doha but contradicted US President Donald Trump‘s claim that direct talks would take place.

Qatar also said no high-level meetings or direct talks between the longtime foes were planned.

Here is what we know about the discussions.

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Oil tankers and cargo vessels are anchored off the coast of Oman after being stranded for days as congestion at Port Sultan Qaboos has prevented them from docking on June 23, 2026 in Muscat, Oman.

Elke Scholiers | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Iran has exported more than 40 million barrels of crude oil since the U.S. removed its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and is now selling oil at prices roughly 20% higher than before the war, parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday.

The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to end nearly four months of war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and set ​up 60 days of negotiations to work out a permanent peace deal. The two sides briefly traded strikes over the weekend after Iran attacked two transiting vessels.

The ceasefire prompted a surge in crude shipments through the vital waterway where traffic had largely ground to a halt during the conflict, sending oil prices sharply lower.

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Representatives from the two sides met in Switzerland last weekend for talks to end the war, which resulted in the US partially lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

The number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has risen significantly since the MOU was signed, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

Its latest data suggests 284 vessels have made the transit from 18 June, the day after the deal was signed, although that is is still well below the pre-conflict average of some 138 crossings each day.

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President Donald Trump was involved in a tense shouting match with Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and other critics in the chamber during a closed-door meeting on Wednesday, according to a report from the New York Post.

The gathering was intended to cover legislative priorities such as the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, which addresses voter identification and citizenship requirements. However, discussion shifted to the ongoing U.S. military involvement in Iran and a Senate vote held the previous day on a war powers resolution.

The conflict with Iran started on February 28, 2026, under Operation Epic Fury, which involved strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership targets. The operation was initially projected to last approximately four weeks, but more than four months had passed by late June without all original objectives being met.

Senators in attendance noted that lawmakers had not received comprehensive briefings on a memorandum of understanding signed between the Trump administration and Iranian representatives in the week prior to the meeting.

On June 23, the Senate approved a war powers resolution calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran. The measure was largely symbolic and lacked binding legal effect. It passed with support from four Republican senators joining Democrats: Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Sen. Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania was absent due to a prior commitment with Trump.

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised President Trump on Wednesday for degrading Iran’s nuclear capability, saying Tehran had been “basically getting its hands on” one. He also credited Trump personally for helping set that program back, remaining the true leader of the free world, and working to ensure Iran is unable to threaten Europe and other allies.

Rutte has been working hard to keep NATO unified since the Iran war, especially after tensions flared over Europe’s reluctance to back U.S. combat operations to open the Strait of Hormuz. Whether his praise is sincere or simply diplomatic damage control, the result is the same: even Trump’s critics have to acknowledge that the war’s bare minimum achievement was a meaningful degradation of Iran’s nuclear capacity.