Iran Watch

President Trump says leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak Thursday, as Washington pushes to ease hostilities after the rivals’ first direct talks in decades on Tuesday.

“Trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon,” Mr. Trump said late Wednesday on his Truth Social platform, apparently referring to the meeting held in Washington the day before – the first direct negotiations between senior officials from the two countries since 1993 — and to Thursday’s planned discussion.

He didn’t identify Thursday’s participants or give details but said, “It has been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will happen tomorrow. Nice!”

Israeli Army Radio, also known as GLZ Radio, said Thursday that, “Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel confirmed in an interview that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.”

… The U.S. ‘blockade’ of Iranian ports around the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) is under a week old.  When the U.S. naval blockade was announced, some worried it would make things worse by further enraging Iran or the rogue Iranian military, who may then attack ship traffic, ports, or people.  Thankfully, it’s been relatively calm. However we may be just one drone strike, one stray Iranian missile, or one nasty Hormuz mine blast from an escalation.  An assault directly on an American warship would send oil prices soaring.  It’s a scary and tentative time.

That said…

We know the Strait matters massively to more than just oil.  I’ve been very clear on concerns about shortages of fertilizer, jet fuel, other refined products and even helium for semiconductor manufacturing.  Even if the Strait returns to pre-war shipping levels soon – by the way, something absolutely no one is counting on – it could take months to get back to any state of normal for energy and related supply chains.

Diplomats worked through back channels on Tuesday to arrange a new round of peace talks between the United States and Iran after Washington enacted its blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened to strike targets across the war-weary region.

US President Donald Trump said a second round of talks could happen “over the next two days,” telling the New York Post the negotiations could be held again in Pakistan’s capital.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres concurred, saying it’s “highly probable” that talks will restart. He cited a meeting he had with Pakistan’s deputy prime minister, Ishaq Dar.

“There is no military solution to this crisis. Peace agreements require persistent engagement and political will. Serious negotiations must resume,” he said.

U.S. warships confronted six merchant vessels seen departing an Iranian port, forcing them all to turn back, in the opening hours of the Trump administration’s bid to counter Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, military officials said Tuesday.