04b Theory and Analysis

While liberal America is justifiably triumphant about Tuesday night’s election results, a lot of professionals are quietly worried about extremism infecting the party. Certainly, electing a mayor of New York who’s an unfortunate hellbroth of communism, Islamism, and “defund the police,” is not someone you want defining your party nationally.

And then there’s the problem of Jay Jones, the Attorney General-elect of Virginia, who won handily despite being caught sending text messages wishing death on a Republican colleagues’ kids — and this wasn’t some flippant message. After he did this, he called up his colleague on the phone to further argue his point about needing to watch kids die in order to make political progress. He also appears to have deceived the state and faked community service hours as part of a punishment for being caught driving 116 mph.

Despite this, no notable national Democrat called for Jones to withdraw from the race. Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger refused withdraw her endorsement of Jones, and Virginia Senator and former vice-presidential candidate Tim Kaine also continued to support him.

There’s a familiar air of disillusionment the morning following any election; some cheer, others curse, and many retreat into silence.

But what happened this week wasn’t shocking, and anybody who thought otherwise wasn’t paying attention to the map, the math, or the mood of the country.

Two deep-blue states and one purple state leaned where they always lean. All three painted in predictable hues — Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, along with California tightening its grip on redistricting — while Texas passed every constitutional amendment in the methodical order listed on the docket.

There was nothing revolutionary or accidental; it was just yet another reminder that America rarely turns on a dime.

That’s the thing about republics: they bend slowly. They don’t change course because of one election night’s chatter, which is precisely what many Americans have forgotten.

If you missed last night, a few blue state politicians won some elections in a few blue states and now the big blue sky is falling. The 2026 midterms are a fait accompli! President Donald Trump is a lame duck!

I pity my friends who live in the commonwealth across the river who have enjoyed the past four years with Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin sitting in Richmond, but this is not so.

The conservative chattering class will lament loudly and profusely about Tuesday’s results, not only because it is good for business, but because it’s their elections. Virginia, New Jersey, New York City—these are the places they call home, and they expect too much of the citizens of Sodom and Gomorrah. Which I only feel comfortable saying because I’m from California, a modern-day Capernaum.

Certainly, the temptation to get swept up in the punishment about to be exacted on these places is strong. In New York City, Democrat Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s policies will destroy what’s left of the city’s independent working class. In Virginia, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger is poised to set the schoolmarms loose on parents who don’t want their girls changing in locker rooms with boys. In New Jersey, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, if her absentee voting record in Congress is any indication, will do little to relieve citizens of the Garden State from the green policies pushing up energy prices.

Weep, if you must, but it’s best not to turn back.

As I previously wrote for The Daily Signal:

On Tuesday night, the temptation for professional and casual election observers alike will be to assume that if more candidates win with D’s next to their names than R’s, Democrats are in the driver’s seat for the midterms, and vice versa….

The truth is that the party identification of Tuesday night’s winners are oftentimes bad predictors of how the chips will fall in the midterms.