Trump World
The markets are obsessed with the Strait of Hormuz. Why it matters less than you think– www.cnbc.com
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… The U.S. ‘blockade’ of Iranian ports around the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) is under a week old. When the U.S. naval blockade was announced, some worried it would make things worse by further enraging Iran or the rogue Iranian military, who may then attack ship traffic, ports, or people. Thankfully, it’s been relatively calm. However we may be just one drone strike, one stray Iranian missile, or one nasty Hormuz mine blast from an escalation. An assault directly on an American warship would send oil prices soaring. It’s a scary and tentative time.
That said…
MY TAKE → The Strait of Hormuz is not as important to global energy as it was just a few weeks ago. Here’s why. Over the past few years, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have very smartly built back-up pipelines. Those pipelines – a whopping 7 million barrels per day capacity in Saudi and about 1.5 million per day flowing across the UAE have – have cut the flow of shipborne oil out of the Hormuz by half.
We know the Strait matters massively to more than just oil. I’ve been very clear on concerns about shortages of fertilizer, jet fuel, other refined products and even helium for semiconductor manufacturing. Even if the Strait returns to pre-war shipping levels soon – by the way, something absolutely no one is counting on – it could take months to get back to any state of normal for energy and related supply chains.
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As the United States Navy enforces a full blockade of Iranian ports and conducts minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz, the lessons of 1987 and 1988 are once again proving their worth. I know, because I participated in the Pentagon basement war games that shaped Operation Praying Mantis in 1988, which became America’s largest Navy surface engagement since World War II.
In March 1987, as Iran attacked shipping in the Persian Gulf during the Tanker War, Kuwait sought U.S. protection for its oil tankers. President Ronald Reagan ordered them reflagged under Operation Earnest Will.
Before the first convoy sailed, two-week-long war games tested responses to Iranian provocations. I served on the Green team as a young Reagan appointee, modeling a robust, military-centric reaction. The Blue team pursued a restrained, “proportional response” approach favored by the foreign policy “Blob.”
The outcomes were clear: The Green team’s decisive posture resulted in roughly 50 American dead, wounded, or captured. The Blue team’s tentative path allowed Iran to control escalation, producing some 1,500 American casualties.
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Diplomats worked through back channels on Tuesday to arrange a new round of peace talks between the United States and Iran after Washington enacted its blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened to strike targets across the war-weary region.
US President Donald Trump said a second round of talks could happen “over the next two days,” telling the New York Post the negotiations could be held again in Pakistan’s capital.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres concurred, saying it’s “highly probable” that talks will restart. He cited a meeting he had with Pakistan’s deputy prime minister, Ishaq Dar.
“There is no military solution to this crisis. Peace agreements require persistent engagement and political will. Serious negotiations must resume,” he said.
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U.S. warships confronted six merchant vessels seen departing an Iranian port, forcing them all to turn back, in the opening hours of the Trump administration’s bid to counter Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, military officials said Tuesday.
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- Iran war already taking a toll on the global economy, IMF says in new forecast The Washington Post
- Middle East War Will Slow Global Economic Growth, I.M.F. Warns The New York Times
- Citing fallout from the Iran war, IMF cuts the outlook for global growth, expects higher inflation San Francisco Chronicle
- Joint Statement on 13 April by the Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank Group IEA – International Energy Agency
- IMF warns global economy at risk of recession if Iran war persists BBC
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The strong warning reitrates that China has an energy agreement with Iran and therefore its ships will not be intercepted.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry said: “Chinese ships continue to move in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
“We have trade and energy agreements with Iran, which we will respect and abide by.
“We expect others not to interfere in our affairs.
“Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and has opened it to us.”
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A Chinese-owned oil and chemical tanker slipped through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, becoming the first vessel to make the crossing since President Trump’s blockade on Iranian ports began Monday and raising fresh questions about how hard Tehran and its trading partners are willing to test U.S. pressure.
Fox News reported the tanker, Rich Starry, successfully transited the strait after being turned back on Monday. The ship made it through on its second attempt, the outlet said.
The Trump administration’s blockade is aimed at choking off traffic to and from Iranian ports, not shutting down the entire waterway. Fox News said the Rich Starry was traveling from the United Arab Emirates, not heading to or departing from Iran, and was therefore allowed to pass.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Sanctioned Chinese-linked tanker crosses Strait of Hormuz despite US naval blockade. pic.twitter.com/kMG1g8TfuL
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) April 14, 2026
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Tracking data appears to show a number of Iran-linked ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the hours after the U.S. blockade of the waterway began on Monday.
The U.S. military said its blockade would apply to “all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports,” but that it would “not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”
One ship that crossed the strait after the blockade began on Monday – the Christianna – had previously been stopped at the Iranian port of Bandar Imam Khomeini, data shows.
Another ship, the Ladonna, had been at Bandar Imam Khomeini for a week before turning on its transponder Tuesday and journeying into the Persian Gulf.
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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced on Tuesday that she has suspended her country’s defense cooperation agreement with Israel over the conflicts throughout the Middle East.
Meloni said at an event in the northern city of Verona that her government “has decided to suspend the automatic renewal of the defense agreement with Israel in consideration of the current situation.”
Her announcement came about a week after the Israeli military fired warning shots at an Italian peacekeeping convoy outside Beirut, Lebanon. No one was injured in the incident, which Meloni called “completely unacceptable,” while Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani summoned the Israeli ambassador to Rome for a third time since 2024.
The 2003 Memorandum of Understanding was ratified by Italy in 2005 and is renewed automatically every five years.
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A further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession, spiralling inflation and a sharp backlash in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
Against an increasingly volatile backdrop, the Washington-based fund said the economic damage from the Middle East conflict was steadily rising as it cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact from the war so far.
In its half-yearly update, the IMF said the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year, even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026.
However, under a worst-case “severe scenario,” involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, it said the world would face “a close call for a global recession” for only the fifth time since 1980.
Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets after crunch weekend talks between the US and Iran ended in stalemate and as a US blockade on the strait of Hormuz began. On Tuesday, Brent crude eased 0.9% to $98.5 a barrel on hopes of further peace talks.
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British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has formed a “special” new Cabinet committee to deal with the Iran conflict. Its efforts behind closed doors will coordinate the national response to the growing Middle East crisis through a series of talks, meetings, and earnest consultations.
Position papers can consequently be expected to arrive at 10 Downing Street along with further sub-committees a possibility all in lieu of immediate action.
The move came as Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron announced they will be co-hosting a Middle East summit in Paris on Friday to talk about a diplomatic solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
The Independent reports the Westminster group – the Middle East Response Committee – already had its first meeting Tuesday focused on efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route vital for global oil and gas supplies.
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For decades, Washington Post art critic Philip Kennicott has served up cartoonish anti-American hot takes, so it wasn’t a surprise when he admitted in Friday’s print edition he and others supposedly weren’t able to enjoy the Artemis II mission because of Donald Trump being in office and his “language of genocide and apocalypse” towards Iran.
This, Kennicott argued, has “eclipsed” any “allure” of space, “the striking images” sent back, and the “bravery and telegenic decency of the astronauts.”
The print headline denoted a serious case of Trump Derangement Syndrome: “Artemis II’s view of a dark horizon; President Trump’s menacing rhetoric toward Iran eclipses the new wonders of the Space Age.” Over online, the headlines warned of “dark rhetoric eclipsing” NASA’s “new wonders.”
Kennicott started with the 1969 moon landing and even that wasn’t something he was keen on acknowledging as a monumentally positive and thrilling human achievement. The reason? He didn’t use the words jingoism or nationalism, but he called it “propaganda” as part of the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
Additionally, he claimed “[t]he euphoria of the first moon landing was directly connected to our ambivalence about the science that made it possible” because such early days of rocket technology also brought about the power to destroy humanity via “hurl[ing] hydrogen bombs across the planet.”
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Back in January, President Trump dropped a one-liner worthy of the usually inimitable Willie Brown, the former mayor of San Francisco, who said of his long-ago romance with then-District Attorney Kamala Harris: “She loved me, I loved me. It was the perfect relationship.” Trump’s version, offered in an interview with NBC News, was about the…
Iran war threatens to push 2.5 mn people in India into poverty: UNDP report | Economy & Policy News– www.business-standard.com
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The conflict and military escalation in West Asia threatens to push 2.5 million people in India into poverty and the country is projected to experience some loss in its human development progress, according to estimates and projections by the United Nations.
The United Nations Development Programme, in a report titled ‘Military Escalation In The Middle East: Human Development Impacts Across Asia And The Pacific’ noted that the conflict is “widening human development pressures across Asia and the Pacific through higher fuel, freight, and input costs, the shock is diminishing household purchasing power, raising food insecurity, straining public budgets, and weakening livelihoods.”
The preliminary assessment, issued Tuesday, estimates that globally 8.8 million people are at risk of falling into poverty and the West Asia military escalation could cost Asia-Pacific up to $299 billion.
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The United States military issued a warning Monday that it will be enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports on the Gulf of Oman — east of the Strait of Hormuz — as ceasefire negotiations with Iran broke down over the weekend, U.S. Central Command said in a notice to seafarers.
The notice said the blockade would begin at 10 a.m. eastern, following a proclamation from U.S. President Donald Trump. The Gulf of Oman is a strategic body of water in the Arabian Sea, which lies just east of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has been blocking to most international shipping traffic for weeks.
“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” the U.S. military notice said.
US stands alone as Iran, China join key UN bodies over objections– www.foxnews.com
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Western democracies, including the UK, France, Canada and Australia, are facing backlash after allowing Iran and other authoritarian regimes to secure seats on influential United Nations (U.N.) bodies, with the United States standing alone in opposition.
The controversy stems from decisions by the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), a 54-member body that plays a central role in shaping U.N. policy and staffing key committees.
Critics warn the outcome could allow governments accused of human rights abuses to influence global policy and control which civil society groups are granted access to the United Nations.
Spain pushes China to assume global leadership role during Iran war– www.washingtonexaminer.com
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Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Monday pushed China to embrace a larger role on the world stage as Europe increasingly turns to Beijing amid growing tensions with the United States.
Sanchez’s speech at Beijing’s Tsinghua University follows recent moves from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and others to tighten ties with China after the Trump administration redefined its relationship with Europe, leading many allies to question Washington’s commitment to long-standing alliances.
On the day before he is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Sanchez pushed back against the notion that Europe holds little value and called on China to help fill what he described as a new power vacuum left by the U.S.
“Europe may seem small on a map. But its weight is decisive, and its unity is a guarantee of stability and prosperity in the world, a world that cannot be understood without China,” Sanchez said. “We are called upon to understand one another and to cooperate.”
“Europe will also have to redouble its efforts, especially now that the United States has decided to withdraw from many of these fronts,” he added.
Poll Shows Massive Support for Trump’s Goals in Iran, but Concern About How Conflict Is Going – RedState– redstate.com
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As the U.S. blocking of the Strait of Hormuz begins Monday morning, a new CBS -YouGov poll showed Sunday that the American public overwhelmingly backs President Trump’s goals in the Iran conflict and his vow to never let the Islamic Republic obtain nuclear weapons.
Oil Tankers Rush to The US For American Oil As Negotiations Fail to Open the Strait of Hormuz– townhall.com
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As the remnants of the Iranian regime continue to block the Strait of Hormuz, countries around the world are reportedly turning to the United States for oil, as tankers flood the Gulf of America to purchase American oil.
This is the Gulf of America, packed with supertankers racing to load up on US oil.
Record exports.
Global energy demand is shifting directly to 🇺🇸
Economic boom incoming.
Paying attention… pic.twitter.com/yjCwoJI8Wd
— Dan Gambardello (@dangambardello) April 12, 2026
🚨 DONALD TRUMP JUST STUNNED THE WORLD
Suddenly, oil and gas tankers want to RUSH to the US to fill up on energy. Look at the Gulf of America!
It’s almost like 47 had a plan this entire time 🔥
“Boats are sailing up, heading to OUR country, big, beautiful tankers — we’re… pic.twitter.com/xRFt22LuOi
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 12, 2026
🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump just stunned everybody, saying the world is USING AMERICA to fill up on oil because of what Iran did to the Strait
“At 10 o’clock tomorrow we have a blockade going into effect…other nations are working so that Iran will not be able to sell oil and… pic.twitter.com/O7DEvBqPSt
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 13, 2026
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth drew some parallels between the timing of the Easter weekend rescue mission of a downed U.S. Air Force officer behind enemy lines and the resurrection of Jesus Christ nearly two thousand years ago.
Speaking at a Monday briefing at the White House, Hegseth could not help noting that the timeline of the rescue operation suggested God may have had a hand in its positive outcome.
When the downed weapons systems officer activated his transponder after hiding himself on a remote mountainside in southwest Iran, his first message was “God is good,” Hegseth recounted.
The secretary of war pointed out the officer was “Shot down on a Friday — Good Friday — hidden in a cave, a crevice, all of Saturday, and rescued on Sunday. Flown out of Iran as the sun was rising on Easter Sunday.”
“A pilot reborn, all home and accounted for, a nation rejoicing: God is good.”
.@SecWar: “Shot down on a Friday — Good Friday — hidden in a cave, a crevice, all of Saturday, and rescued on Sunday. Flown out of Iran as the sun was rising on Easter.” pic.twitter.com/1GWtaiYoyj
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 6, 2026
Russia and China on Tuesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz that had been repeatedly watered down in hopes those two countries would abstain.
The vote — 11-2, with two abstentions from Pakistan and Colombia— took place just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump issued an unprecedented threat that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not open the strategic waterway and make a deal before his 8 p.m. Eastern deadline. One-fifth of the world’s oil typically passes through the strait, and Iran’s stranglehold during the war has sent energy prices soaring.
President Donald Trump warned China on Sunday it would face a tariff among other “staggering” consequences if it provided weapons to Iran.
Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in a Sunday morning Truth Social post, saying ships that paid an Iranian toll in either Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency would be intercepted by the United States Navy.
“Sunday Morning Futures” host Maria Bartiromo asked Trump about reports China had provided missiles to Iran.
The U.K. is “not supporting” the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday, insisting that the country would not get “dragged in” to the Iran war.
It came as President Emmanuel Macron confirmed France and the U.K. would, in the coming days, co-host a conference aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessels avoiding damage from the Iran war are turning to a small island nation in Africa Business Insider Africa
from news.google.com
Oil prices may soon be coming down after this move by U.S. Forces.
U.S. CENTCOM on Saturday announced the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy will patrol the Strait of Hormuz to clear it from mines that were placed by the Iranian regime.
The move by U.S. CENTCOM come as JD Vance and top Iranian officials are in Pakistan discussing a peace agreement that would bring an end to U.S. military operations in Iran.
U.S.-born Pope Leo XIV pushed back Monday on President Donald Trump’s broadside against him over the U.S.-Israel war in Iran, telling reporters that the Vatican’s appeals for peace and reconciliation are rooted in the Gospel, and that he doesn’t fear the Trump administration.
“To put my message on the same plane as what the president has attempted to do here, I think is not understanding what the message of the Gospel is,” Leo told The Associated Press aboard the papal plane en route to Algeria. “And I’m sorry to hear that but I will continue on what I believe is the mission of the church in the world today.”
Pope Leo has responded to President Trump’s attack on him by saying he has “no intention to debate” Mr. Trump on Iran.
On Sunday, Mr. Trump lashed out at the pontiff on social media, calling him “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy.”
“I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” he added.
Leo had called Mr. Trump’s threat to wipe out Iranian civilization “truly unacceptable” and encouraged people to contact “political leaders … to ask them, tell them to work for peace.”