Southeast Asia Watch

Thousands evacuated in Hong Kong after 1,000-pound WWII bomb discovered– www.foxnews.com
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Thousands of people were forced to evacuate a bustling neighborhood of Hong Kong overnight while experts sweated through the delicate work of defusing an undetonated nearly 5-foot, 1,000-pound bomb left over from World War II.

The U.S.-made bomb was found at a construction site in Quarry Bay on Hong Kong’s west side overnight Friday, and it isn’t the first bomb from the war to be found on the island.

“We have confirmed this object to be a bomb dating back to World War II,” Andy Chan Tin-Chu, a police official, told reporters. He said because of “the exceptionally high risks associated with its disposal,” approximately 1,900 households involving 6,000 individuals were “urged to evacuate swiftly.”

TikTok’s Algorithm Will Soon Be “Controlled By America” – Mother Jones– www.motherjones.com
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After years of bipartisan warnings about TikTok’s potential national security risks, users may soon confront a different kind of threat, perhaps even worse: an algorithm “controlled by America.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the detail on Saturday, a key aspect of the emerging agreement announced by the Trump administration last week between the United States and China. The deal could finally settle TikTok’s fate in the US following months of uncertainty with a brief ban, reversal by the Trump administration, and shifting, self-imposed deadlines for an agreement.

“There will be seven seats on the board that controls the app in the US, and six of those seats will be Americans,” Leavitt told Fox News. “The data and privacy will be led by one of America’s greatest tech companies, Oracle, and the algorithm will also be controlled by America.”

It’s unclear what exactly a US-controlled algorithm will involve. Right-wing conspiracy theories? Charlie Kirk memorials? Coupons for MAGA swag? Nor did Leavitt specify which American individuals would be involved in determining an algorithm. We also have little details on how Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, a Trump loyalist, intends to approach the responsibility for managing TikTok’s data and security while the Trump administration weaponizes everything from voting data to confidential Social Security records.

China’s Gap Between Rhetoric and Action Perpetuates Status Quo in Gaza– chinadigitaltimes.net
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On Monday, Reuters reported on the story of a man who tried to flee Gaza by crossing the border into Egypt and then flying to China in order to seek asylum, only to be denied and sent back. As his case illustrates, China’s well-known rhetorical support for Gaza has in many ways not translated into concrete action. In fact, China has appeared to soften its stance towards Israel over the past year. Its criticism over what a U.N. Commission of Inquiry described this week as genocide is directed more at the U.S. and other Western states that undergird Israel’s campaign, rather than at Israel itself. This selectivity serves to undermine the U.S.’ standing relative to China in the eyes of some other countries, while preserving China’s interests in Israel. However, Israel’s increasingly aggressive actions—including recently bombing Qatar’s capital—risk finally pushing Beijing to adopt a more confrontational stance backed by material consequences.

As Youth Unemployment Hits New High, China Waxes Nostalgic for the “Boom Years”– chinadigitaltimes.net
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China’s National Bureau of Statistics published new data on Wednesday showing that urban youth unemployment rose to a two-year high last month. According to the data, the rate of unemployed youth aged 16 to 24 (excluding students) rose from 17.8 percent in June to 18.9 percent in August, nearing the historical peak of 21.3 percent in June 2023. This development underscores how even in a country that censors and “optimizes” negative data, a harsh economic landscape continues to frustrate millions of Chinese youth.

After the peak in 2023, government officials suspended the publication of youth unemployment data for several months and revised their methodology to yield lower figures. Articles discussing the state of the Chinese economy have also been censored online, including one on WeChat from March titled “Ten Questions About the Chinese Economy in 2025,” and a similar list of ten economic questions in 2023. A meme comparing masses of youth at a job fair to the Terracotta Warriors was likewise taken down from the internet in May. Upon hearing about the latest youth unemployment figures, Chinese netizens on Weibo and X joked about the sensitivity and unreliability of such statistics, as documented by CDT Chinese editors:

Stream2024: Great news! Another record high!

Signposts Toward the Future of Indian-Chinese Relations– warontherocks.com
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On Aug. 31, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual summit in Tianjin — Modi’s first trip to China in seven years. The meeting highlighted improving relations between the two countries, following a period of intensified tensions during border clashes in 2020. This renewed engagement occurs at a time of unusually high U.S.–Indian tensions, raising concerns in Washington that New Delhi might be leaning more toward China. We asked three experts to identify key indicators that might signify the direction of Indian–Chinese relations over the next few

China accuses Philippines of ship collision near disputed shoal in South China Sea– www.cbsnews.com
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China’s coast guard accused a Philippine ship of deliberately ramming one of its vessels on Tuesday near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines denied it, saying China’s forces used powerful water cannons that damaged its ship and injured a crew member.

A Chinese coast guard statement said more than 10 Philippine government ships coming from various directions entered the waters around the shoal, which is called Huangyan Island in Chinese. It said it deployed water cannons against the vessels.

The encounter came six days after China announced it was designating part of Scarborough Shoal as a national nature reserve. The Philippine government, which calls the shoal Bajo de Masinloc, filed a diplomatic protest.

China and the Philippines have clashed repeatedly around outcroppings in the South China Sea, which China claims almost in its entirety. The two countries are among several that have competing claims to territory in the waters, which are of strategic importance and home to valuable fishing grounds.

The Philippine coast guard said two Chinese coast guard ships hit a Filipino fisheries vessel, the BRP Datu Gumbay Piang, with powerful water cannons for nearly 30 minutes “resulting in significant damage,” including in the captain’s cabin and the bridge. A glass window was shattered and injured a personnel while the deluge of water caused a short circuit that affected electrical outlets and five outdoor air-conditioning units, it said.

Censorship Smothers Criticism of Military Parade– chinadigitaltimes.net
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A host of measures intended to stifle dissent allowed Beijing’s military parade last week to take place without any major disruptions. The following is a summary of some of these examples of censorship and control.

Some of these measures were implemented before the parade began. A recent censorship directive, leaked online and later translated by CDT, advised cyber-regulators to remain vigilant against a long list of “ideological risks” related to the upcoming military parade and other events during the third quarter of the year. Last week, Laura Bicker at the BBC detailed how Beijing tightened control in the lead-up to the parade:

Airport security scanners have been installed in some office entrances. All drones are banned and international journalists have been visited at home, some on multiple occasions, to ensure they get the message.

Guards have been stationed 24 hours a day at the entrances to overpasses and bridges to prevent any protests, some of them in army uniforms.

[…] People living near Chang’an Avenue, which leads to Tiananmen square, were told to stay off their balconies to ensure the rehearsals could be held in secrecy. [Source]

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Recent reports are urging President Trump to recognize Somaliland as an independent country. During his press conference with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, where he discussed brokering their peace, a reporter also asked him about Somaliland. President Trump, positioning himself as a true dealmaker who brokers peace among longtime warring factions, has a significant opportunity to strengthen these fledgling nations.

East Turkistan is another country yearning for freedom, located to the east of Kazakhstan in Central Asia. Currently occupied by the People’s Republic of China and labeled the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, most of the world has never heard of this country because of the Chinese government’s ethnic cleansing and propaganda war of suppression and secrecy.

However, most people have heard of the Uyghurs.

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Months of protests in Serbia reached a new intensity Wednesday night as riot police intervened to separate rival demonstrations of anti-government protesters and supporters of President Aleksandar Vucic. The president once again accused unnamed foreign powers of orchestrating the protests, which first began after the deadly collapse of a subway station sparked accusations of widespread government corruption.

Supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) threw flares and firecrackers at anti-government protesters in Novi Sad on Wednesday evening, prompting police to intervene to end the standoff, a major escalation of nine-month-long protests in Serbia.

The student-led protests in Serbia first started in November after a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad, killing 16 people and triggering accusations of corruption in state infrastructure projects.

Protests have since drawn hundreds of thousands of people, shaking President Aleksandar Vucic’s firm grip on power. His supporters have recently started organising counter-demonstrations, fuelling fears of possible violence.

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Over the past two decades, the posture of the United States towards China has evolved from economic cooperation to outright antagonism. US media outlets and politicians have engaged in persistent anti-China rhetoric, while the US government has imposed trade restrictions and sanctions on China and pursued military build-up close to Chinese territory. Washington wants people to believe that China poses a threat.

China’s rise indeed threatens US interests, but not in the way the US political elite seeks to frame it.

The US relationship with China needs to be understood in the context of the capitalist world system. Capital accumulation in the core states, often glossed as the “Global North”, depends on cheap labour and cheap resources from the periphery and semi-periphery, the so-called “Global South”.

This arrangement is crucial to ensuring high profits for the multinational firms that dominate global supply chains. The systematic price disparity between the core and periphery also enables the core to achieve a large net-appropriation of value from the periphery through unequal exchange in international trade.

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 In a significant development in the Indo-Pacific and and a matter of concern for India, US and East Asian Countries, China has intensified its maritime military capabilities by deploying its largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, Fujian, into the sea. As per media reports, the Fujian aircraft carrier is not only China’s most advanced but also its first fully domestically designed flat-deck supercarrier equipped with electromagnetic catapults. Here are all the details you need to know about the Fujian advanced aircraft carrier.

China’s Fujian aircraft carrier: Why India should be cautious?

Reportedly similar to the US Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class, the deployment of the aircraft carrier marks a significant step in Beijing’s naval modernization and signals its growing strategic ambitions from the Taiwan Strait to the Indian Ocean.

Why China’s Fujian aircraft carrier is dangerous?

As per media reports, the Fujian aircraft carrier was first deployed for sea trials in May 2024 and is expected to join service by the end of 2025. More importantly, the aircraft carrier has been equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system (EMALS), making China the only country in the world after US to use an electromagnetic catapult system (EMALS) to land fighter jets on a carrier.

 

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During a June 17 speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Steve Koehler declared that despite an ongoing campaign of intimidation against its smaller neighbors in the South China Sea, “China’s pressure is not working well. It has failed to intimidate Southeast Asian claimants and make them surrender their sovereign rights.”

Koehler detailed examples of Chinese harassment and violence over the last year against Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and especially the Philippines, but noted that in each case, the Southeast Asian states have refused to back down. The admiral echoed this assessment the following month in a speech in Manila on the anniversary of the Philippines’ 2016 arbitral victory in The Hague, which ruled most of Beijing’s maritime claims in the South China Sea illegal.

That China is faltering might surprise casual observers of the South China Sea disputes, but it matches the available evidence. China’s efforts to establish control over the sea have plateaued over the last four years. That came after nearly a decade of steady gains. The strategy that won Beijing control over much of the body of water, despite the illegality of its claims, was centered on a campaign of intimidation and non-lethal force, often dubbed “gray zone” coercion. That campaign is no longer working but the Xi Jinping regime is unwilling, and likely unable, to accept that reality and seek compromise with its Southeast Asian neighbors. The result is a dangerous cycle of brinksmanship, but one that is not delivering results for Beijing. To help Southeast Asian partners, especially the Philippines, remain resilient and deter Beijing from military escalation, the United States should follow through with plans to strengthen force posture and support the military modernization of partners in the region.

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As Taiwan concluded its largest-ever Han Kuang military exercise, annual war games designed to test the island’s ability to repel a Chinese invasion, China simultaneously launched a series of back-to-back drills, overtly simulating an attack and applying strategic pressure. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command issued daily updates detailing synchronized maneuvers designed to mirror and counter Taiwan’s activities.

The 2025 Han Kuang exercise, held from July 9 to 18, was the longest and most comprehensive iteration since its inception in 1984. It marked a significant shift toward whole-of-society defense, emphasizing joint combat operations and responses to “grey zone” threats. The drills featured over 22,000 reservists and incorporated both domestically developed and U.S.-supplied weapons, including Sky Sword II missiles, Abrams M1A2T tanks, and HIMARS rocket systems. For the first time, Han Kuang was paired with the Urban Resilience Exercises, a multi-month campaign held from April through July to test Taiwan’s ability to withstand a prolonged conflict through full societal participation.

The computer-aided phase of the drill was extended from 8 to 14 days, while the live-fire segment doubled from 5 to 10. Key focus areas included electronic warfare, rapid mobilization, integrated air and missile defense, maritime security, and ground operations. The traditionally scripted exercises were replaced with 24/7 unscripted scenarios simulating combat in urban areas, civil-military coordination, and mass evacuation drills in real-world locations such as hypermarkets.

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Last month, the Department of Justice charged two Chinese nationals for smuggling a scientifically classified potential agroterrorism fungus into the United States. They were allegedly receiving funding from China to research the pathogen for potential future attacks, highlighting the dangers China could pose to the U.S. food supply in the future at a time it has already effectively infiltrated American agriculture through land acquisition.

China’s acquisition of U.S. land is a well-documented national security threat, especially as it continues to purchase land in suspicious proximity to U.S. military bases. This strategic investment by China has rapidly developed, with China only owning approximately 13,720 acres in 2010 growing to the 277,336 acres it owned as of Dec. 2023.

Despite the number of acres reported in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act Dec. 2023 report, this data “should be interpreted as a minimum.” The data disclosed to the USDA is collected through voluntary reporting. This creates gaps in the database, with 3.1 million acres unaccounted for. Additionally, there is a caveat in the reporting, as entities can list “no predominant country” in their filing. Roughly 2.3 million acres account for no foreign investor and no predominant country listed. The number of Chinese-controlled acreage is highly likely to be far larger than reported.

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In another welcome sign of the Trump Administration’s focused prioritization of American interests in foreign policy, the State Department’s Senior Bureau Official for African Affairs recently rolled out a clear-eyed approach to U.S. engagement in Africa. As part of a long-overdue restructuring of the State Department, the Trump Administration articulated a directive to U.S. diplomats that puts enhanced trade and commercial diplomacy at the forefront of advancing U.S. interests, with the American private sector squarely in the lead as the engine of mutual prosperity and expansive growth. As highlighted throughout a hearing by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently, threats from Chinese activities across Africa, especially commercial activities, directly undermine U.S. interests across the continent.

Subcommittee Chairman Ted Cruz (R-TX) laid out the challenge directly, calling China “the most significant long-term strategic threat to the United States” and highlighting that throughout Africa, “China is exercising its military, economic, and political power and advancing its authoritarian agenda, all while undermining the sovereignty of African nations and the strategic interests of the United States.” To help confront this harmful influence directly, the Trump Administration’s updated strategy prioritizes the need to reduce barriers to entry for U.S. companies and level the playing field for American businesses. Fair, clear, and equal rules of doing business, coupled with strengthened institutions and the rule of law to uphold those standards, are the opportunity the private sector seeks as it evaluates prospective markets. Coupled with broader Trump Administration reforms at trade promotion and enhanced prioritization ensuring American competitiveness in Africa, this strategic focus on “trade, not aid” is what both our African partners and the American people want.

The success of this strategy goes beyond the ongoing reorganization and strategic restructuring of the state. As Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (R-ID) noted during another recent hearing focused on issues in East Africa, “There are countries where meaningful engagement is possible—but only with sober judgment and clear-eyed realism. We must stop building U.S. policy in Africa around individual leaders and instead focus on strengthening institutions, expanding private sector ties, and empowering the region’s young and dynamic populations.” That clear focus requires careful analysis of the various ways China’s coercive activities have been successful in the past to help inform what is needed to expand commercial relationships in Africa.