Southeast Asia Watch

The Chinese STAR 50 Index has lost trillions of dollars in value in recent months thanks mostly to lost faith in AI. The total value of AI stocks accounts for 40% of the market. The AI machines being built aren’t making money off their domestic market, a problem the U.S. might be facing soon as well.

Chinese markets lose trillions as race for AI supremacy with US takes its toll | China– www.theguardian.com
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Trillions of dollars have been wiped from China’s stock markets in recent months amid increasing anxiety about the future of artificial intelligence, as Beijing races against the United States for dominance in the sector.

The STAR 50 Index, which tracks technology and innovation companies on the Shanghai stock exchange, has plunged 40% since June. Other indexes of major companies dropped by about 20% over the same time period.

The precipitous drop has wiped out $2.4tn from the Chinese stock market since May, according to Bloomberg.

AI stocks account for over 40% of the stock market value in China and Hong Kong, according to Goldman Sachs, meaning that any dent in value will send shockwaves across the whole domestic market.

While the U.S. and Japan were engaged in military drills in the Indo Pacific, China and Russia sent spy planes to disrupt the action. Japanese fighters were scrambled to escort the spy planes out of the region. The drills involve thousands of troops, hundreds of aircraft, and dozens of naval vessels.

China, Russia Send Spy Planes Amid Massive US-Led Military Drills; Japan Scrambles Fighter Jets
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Japan has scrambled fighter aircraft after Chinese and Russian intelligence planes conducted five flights near the country between October 20 and 23. The activity involved three Chinese Y-9 aircraft and two Russian Il-20 reconnaissance planes, according to Japan’s Joint Staff. The missions coincided with Keen Sword 2027, a major Japan-US military exercise running until October 29. With thousands of troops, hundreds of aircraft and dozens of vessels involved, the developments highlight heightened military activity across the Indo-Pacific. No Japanese airspace violations were reported.#China #Russia #Japan #SpyPlanes #MilitaryAircraft #KeenSword2027 #USJapanAlliance #IndoPacific #MilitaryNews #Geopolitics #Y9 #IL20 #JapanAirSelfDefenseForce #BreakingNewsRead Less

A Federal judge has decided the Pentagon does not have a right to block firms from having defense contracts that lobby for Alibaba. The company rewarded in the ruling is a CCP-controlled and supporting enterprise. This ruling allows the CCP to continue to infiltrate American military procurement infrastructures.

China’s Alibaba wins court ruling over Pentagon ban that made the company fire dozens of American lobby firms
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A US federal judge has ruled that the government cannot block companies from getting Pentagon contracts simply because they work with firms that lobby for Alibaba, reports Reuters. The Chinese company sued the US government in June this year after the Pentagon added the Chinese company to a list of firms accused of helping China’s military. The list also included search engine company Baidu, electric vehicle maker BYD and other Chinese technology and manufacturing firms.

What the ruling means for Alibaba

The court’s decision allows Alibaba to continue working with Washington lobbyists who also represent companies that do business with the Pentagon. As per the report, this could help the Chinese company fight its inclusion on the US military-related list.Alibaba reportedly dropped dozens of lobbyists after the Pentagon named it in June. The company has challenged the decision, arguing that there is no evidence to support the claim that it has links to China’s military.Being on the list does not bring direct sanctions, but it can affect a company’s ability to secure Pentagon contracts.

The U.S. Department of War has declared China’s “cultural outreach” centers in progressive-run U.S. universities security threats.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared, “These Chinese government-backed propaganda cultural programs had infiltrated our nation’s universities in almost every state. Now, thankfully, Congress banned them a few years ago, these Confucius Institutes. 
But they came back disguised in new forms, just like DEI does. Just call it a different name. Well, the Department of War has taken action to stop this as well.”

War Department Designates CCP-Tied Confucius Institutes As Security Threats – PJ Media– pjmedia.com
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After years of exposés on the Chinese government influence operations through the Confucius Institutes, the Department of War is finally taking action to recognize that not every type of warfare involves weapons and soldiers.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth warned on October 23 that while federal scrutiny spurred closures of Confucius Institutes in colleges and universities across the country that were acting as influence covers and intellectual property thieves for the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP didn’t give up that easily.

Hegseth explained that just as domestic race- and sex-obsessed ideology is difficult to kill, so foreign propaganda operations are difficult to crush permanently. “When I took office, one thing we knew was that the cancer of DEI, it was gonna be difficult to kill here in the Department of War. You see, instead of complying, promoters of this ideology just tried to rebrand it and thought they would be safe. Now, we were onto it, not gonna let that happen on our watch,” he said.

The secretary proudly declared, “We ripped it out of the Department of War, root and branch. We are gender-neutral, color-blind, and merit-based. Now, today, in a similar example, I want to tell you about Confucius Institutes.”

Pentagon designates Chinese cultural centers national security threat — RT World News– rt-english.com
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Rebranded Confucius Institute chapters were trying to “infiltrate the minds of American students,” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has claimed

The Pentagon has designated cultural programs linked to China’s Confucius Institute as a national security threat, according to US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. He claims that the centers, which largely offer Chinese language courses on American college and university campuses, serve as a front for Beijing’s “propaganda” campaign – an allegation Chinese officials have previously denied.

In a video posted on Facebook on Friday, Hegseth said that while the US Congress had previously “banned” the Confucius Institutes from American educational institutions, they “came back disguised in new forms” and under new names.

Hegseth was apparently referring to several measures passed by Congress in recent years that stripped universities that hosted Confucius Institutes of federal funding. The pressure from the lawmakers has led to the closure of multiple centers on US soil.

Why China’s AI triumphs aren’t saving its flagging stock market– asiatimes.com
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TOKYO – When Chinese stocks lose a South Korea-sized sum in five months, Beijing has a problem.

The US$2.4 trillion plunge in market value since May sits between Korea’s $2.25 trillion GDP and Canada’s $2.49 trillion. Many factors could explain Chinese shares entering bear market territory, but a major one is a protracted slump in consumption and property. External pressure is also mounting as the AI trade wobbles.

The irony is that China keeps winning the AI innovation race while its stock market gets nothing from it. The CSI 300 index is down 11% this year, while the Taipei and Seoul bourses are up 59% and 31%, respectively.

Since the “DeepSeek shock” of January 2025, Chinese labs have repeatedly impressed. July’s launch of Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 proved DeepSeek was no aberration, and Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered AI recently concluded that China is rapidly eroding America’s lead.

Samm Sacks of Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) calls the gap between US and Chinese models “narrow and fragile.”

This week, DeepSeek raised roughly $15 billion, setting the stage for one of China’s most anticipated IPOs in years. Yet shares in AI developers MiniMax and Z.AI (Zhipu) are being hammered daily, just as more listings enter the pipeline.

China’s Temu may have funneled your data to the CCP– www.americanthinker.com
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If you’re like me, you constantly see ads for Temu products. They promise things that are stylish, clever, useful, cute, or whatever it is you’re looking for, and they’re all so very cheap. But while you’re buying their product, it turns out that this Chinese company may well be harvesting your information and laundering it to the CCP. Now, though, at least in Texas, Temu can’t do that anymore.

Temu was unknown a few years ago, so it’s worth looking at its history to understand how it suddenly became so ubiquitous. It all started in 2015, when Colin Huang, a Chinese- and American-educated tech guy who also worked at Google, founded Pinduoduo, an e-commerce business he later rebranded as PDD Holdings. It is now one of China’s largest online shopping businesses.

While PDD is a publicly traded company, and Huang (no longer in leadership but still holding significant equity) is not a member of the Chinese government, that doesn’t mean PDD has no government ties. PDD has significant ties to the CCP because several former CCP officials are (or have been) among PDD’s top executives. Moreover, like all China-based companies, it must comply with CCP intelligence agencies when directed under the National Intelligence Law.

In September 2022, PDD launched Temu, a global version of the Chinese company. Its purpose is to connect consumers directly with inexpensive, usually Chinese-made merchandise. It grew at a near-exponential rate thanks to low prices, a huge advertising budget, cute games that drove bargains, cheap international shipping via a loophole Trump finally closed, and piggybacking on PDD’s supply chains.

The Chinese have sent ships to shadow U.S. ships on patrol in the Taiwan Strait. While the Chinese have done this before, these shadowing operations have recently increased, along with their presence in the Philippine Sea. The U.S. and Taiwan have met this increased activity with their own increased activity in response.

China Sends Navy After US Warship As Separate Maritime Standoff Erupts Near Taiwan– dailycaller.com
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Things are continuing to heat up in the Taiwan Strait as naval confrontations become more frequent and aggressive, though the first shot has not yet been fired.

China dispatched naval forces to shadow an American warship near a disputed South China Sea shoal Tuesday as Taiwan confronted a Chinese Coast Guard vessel accused of entering restricted waters with its tracking system disabled, according to the Chinese military and Taiwan Coast Guard. The incidents underscore the growing risk of military confrontations in the region, where Chinese forces are increasingly challenging American and allied vessels.

The USS Charleston, an Independence-class littoral combat ship, entered waters near Sabina Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands early Tuesday, prompting Chinese naval forces to track and monitor the vessel, according to the PLA Southern Theater Command Navy.

“Taiwan has been getting its act together on defense at last, fielding capabilities designed to deny an invasion fleet (or a blockade fleet) access to the island across the Taiwan Strait,” James R. Holmes, the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “No access, no Chinese victory, and Taiwan stands. Beijing has been so domineering that it has united the countries along the first island chain against it, including ourselves since we are a resident power in the Western Pacific.”

New Call for China to Free U.S. Scholar Min Zin, Detained Since June– chinadigitaltimes.net
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A statement from the Forum 2000 Foundation and International Coalition for Democratic Renewal (ICDR)—of which CDT founder and editor-in-chief Xiao Qiang is a member—adds to widespread calls for the release of Burmese democracy advocate Min Zin, a U.S. citizen. Min Zin was detained in Kunming on June 3 after traveling to China for a conference; soon after, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that he was being held on suspicion of “engaging in espionage activities that endanger China’s national security.” The U.S. State Department formally designated Min Zin’s case as one of wrongful detention in late August, and President Donald Trump told reporters he had raised it during Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington the following month.

From the Forum 2000 Foundation and ICDR:

The International Coalition for Democratic Renewal (ICDR) and Forum 2000 Foundation are deeply concerned by the wrongful detention of Min Zin, a prominent democracy advocate and independent scholar, in China.

On June 3, 2026, Min Zin, a United States citizen, was detained upon arrival at the airport in Yunnan province after traveling there on invitation of a Chinese university for an academic workshop. He has since spent over one hundred days in criminal detention at an undisclosed location investigated on spurious allegations of espionage and endangering China’s national security. Since his wrongful detention, there has been little information regarding Min Zin’s condition, access to legal counsel, or any evidence supporting the allegations against him. On August 20th, the United States government formally designated Min Zin as wrongfully detained.

China’s detention of Min Zin is an affront to international norms and standards and sends a chilling message to those in our community who uphold the principles of intellectual freedom and the open exchange of ideas.

China looks like it’s dumping Treasury debt but may actually be stashing it in Canada and Belgium– fortune.com
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China was once the top holder of U.S. Treasuries but has been shedding its massive stockpile for years, fueling fears of de-dollarization, but official data may not fully capture Beijing’s actual portfolio.

The decline began in earnest around 2021, but as recently as April 2022, China still held $1 trillion in Treasury securities. U.S. data on Friday show that’s been whittled down to just $591 billion as of August, the lowest in 18 years and down from $700 billion a year earlier.

But the data is collected primarily from U.S.-based custodians and broker-dealers, according to the Treasury Department, which adds that U.S. securities held in overseas custody accounts may not be attributed to the actual owners.

As a result, China watchers have long been skeptical of a wholesale dumping of U.S. assets, pointing to suspicious jumps in Treasury holdings elsewhere that coincide with the steep Chinese drop.

Vietnam signs free trade deal with four European nations– www.channelnewsasia.com
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HANOI: Vietnam and four European nations outside the European Union (EU) signed a free trade agreement in Hanoi on Sunday (Oct 18), seeking to diversify their markets as United States tariffs disrupt global commerce.

The deal, between Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, eliminates or reduces customs duties, including on imports of industrial, fish and agricultural products.

The deal was signed in the capital in the presence of Vietnam’s top leader To Lam and representatives of EFTA governments.

Vietnam said the agreement showed the parties’ resolve to “reinforce the rules-based trading system amid continued volatility in the global economy”, according to a government statement.

It was also expected to help Vietnam “diversify its import and export markets” and “integrate more deeply into global value chains”, the government said.

Vietnam and EFTA concluded negotiations in July, more than a decade after the free trade talks officially began in 2012.

The parties relaunched negotiations in September last year, after they had stalled since 2018.

The agreement followed a global trade-disrupting tariff blitz by the US under President Donald Trump which has left Vietnam with a hefty tax on its US exports amid ongoing negotiations with Washington.

Experts say the new deal reflected a shared initiative to diversify commercial ties and reduce reliance on major trading partners.

“As the US increasingly exerts trade pressure on European countries, the agreement is a joint effort to turn economic integration into greater strategic autonomy and to develop alternative commercial relationships rather than relying exclusively on their largest partners,” history and politics scholar Do Dinh Lam Khang told AFP.

China’s Military Expansion in Southeast Asia Masks a More Complicated Reality– warontherocks.com
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The Chinese Ministry of Defense’s announcement of a “joint support and training center” at an airport in Ban Keun, Laos, on Sept. 29 drew attention to the People’s Liberation Army’s growing footprint in Southeast Asia. Although China does not call it a “base” and said it’s “not targeted at any third party,” it is China’s first publicly acknowledged overseas military facility centered on airpower. Ban Keun joins Djibouti and Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base as nodes in a burgeoning network of overseas Chinese security infrastructure.

Concern is understandable. While smaller than China’s base in Djibouti, satellite imagery reveals eight light attack aircraft and support vehicles on a 2,000-meter runway that is currently under construction. Although insufficient to support long-range bombers, the facility likely benefits China’s logistics and intelligence capabilities, diversifies Southeast Asian base access beyond Cambodia, and ties Laos into its arms sales network. The joint center could eventually enhance the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s power projection across mainland Southeast Asia, potentially affecting U.S. forces operating in the eastern Indian Ocean. For Vietnam, this development deepens its sense of siege.

The reflex among many policymakers in Washington after each rumored or announced Chinese military facility overseas is to interpret it through the lens of U.S.-Chinese competition. In Cambodia’s case with Ream, Washington imposed sanctions as punishment. Yet, this reflex misunderstands the nuanced interests driving regional partners to work with China — and how to counter it.

China says rare earth exports to Europe will continue past U.S. trade deadline– www.cnbc.com
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European Union flags flutter outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Feb. 1, 2023

Yves Herman | Reuters

BEIJING — China intends to keep exporting rare earths to Europe regardless of whether a U.S. trade deal with Beijing gets extended past January.

The world’s second-largest economy is willing to continue approving rare earth licenses to Europe, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong told CNBC when asked on Thursday about the impact of the upcoming U.S. deadline.

Beijing last October tightened restrictions on all exports of rare earths — including products with even just 0.1% of China-sourced rare earths. The move followed a new U.S. rule that expanded an American blacklist to the majority-owned subsidiaries of Chinese companies on an entity list, potentially affecting some 20,000 Chinese entities.

China has extended its presence in Laos following reports it had set up a training camp inside the country. Now, China appears to have built an air base within Laos as well. Satellite imagery showed Chinese military aircraft leaving from and landing in the region identified as the new air base. Beijing has now claimed the base is to train Laotian pilots to fly Chinese fighters.

Are Chinese military aircraft already using a new joint air facility in Laos? – South China Morning Post
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Chinese military aircraft may already be using a new joint aviation facility in Laos, with satellite imagery showing twice as many K-8/JL-8-family trainer aircraft there as the Laotian air force is assessed to possess.

Eight of the two-seat trainer and light-attack aircraft were visible at Ban Keun Airport in commercial satellite imagery taken on September 30, according to Reuters, which first reported the images. More than two dozen military and support vehicles were also visible.

The image was taken a day after the China-Laos Joint Support and Training Centre and the China-Laos Friendship Aviation Academy formally began operations at the airport, with a People’s Liberation Army delegation attending the inauguration.

Beijing says the jointly maintained and operated centre is intended to strengthen training for Laotian air force pilots.

China Issues Plague Alerts After Russia Declares Siberian Lab Death Scare Over– slaynews.com
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Chinese authorities are introducing plague precautions and expanding health surveillance after the unexplained death of a Russian anti-plague researcher, even as Moscow declares its monitoring complete and threatens to jail anyone who reports what the government describes as “fake news” about the outbreak.

Officials in Hulunbuir, a city in Inner Mongolia bordering Russia, announced plague prevention protocols in response to the death of 28-year-old Daria Shipilova, Chinese state media reported Monday.

Warnings have also emerged in Hunan province, nearly 900 miles farther south.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong authorities announced increased health surveillance.

The measures come as the World Health Organization (WHO) says Russia has failed to provide enough information for a complete risk assessment.

Chinese Alert Cites Russian Researcher’s Death

Shipilova worked at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute in Siberia.

Russian authorities said she died of pneumonia of unknown cause but have not provided a fuller explanation.

Local reports suggested she had broken a vial or test tube containing a live pathogen before her death.

Russian officials denied those accounts.

Hulunbuir’s disease control center explicitly identified the case as the reason for its warning.

“Reports of the death of a staff member at Russia’s Irkutsk Plague Control and Research Institute from unexplained pneumonia have drawn widespread international attention,” the center said in an alert published on WeChat.

“The exact cause of the incident has not yet received final official confirmation.

“Nevertheless, given the nature of the institution involved and the area’s unique natural plague background, the event has sparked discussions over potential public health risks.”

According to the Global Times, Hulunbuir has not recorded a human plague case since 1927.

The newspaper reported that officials introduced “disinfection” protocols and advised residents to comply with “epidemic prevention rules in affected areas.”

Officials said the possibility of a local outbreak was low and noted that standard pneumonic plague cases can be treated with antibiotics.

Warnings Extend Beyond Border Region

Hunan public health authorities issued a separate alert Friday, according to China Daily.

The warning urged residents “not to panic or spread rumors” and advised travelers visiting natural plague areas to avoid potentially infected animals and take precautions against fleas and rodents.

It also urged prompt medical attention for symptoms including fever, swollen lymph nodes, coughing up blood, and breathing difficulties.

Hong Kong authorities said they would “step up health surveillance measures,” according to the South China Morning Post.

The report did not specify the measures involved.

Russia Warns Against ‘Fake News’ While Questions Remain

Russia’s media regulator, Roskomnadzor, issued an October 8 warning against “spreading fake news,” an offense that can carry jail time, and directed questions to the public health agency Rospotrebnadzor.

Rospotrebnadzor effectively declared the matter concluded Thursday.

Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev separately announced that contact tracing had ended without detecting plague transmission.

“Comprehensive preventive and anti-epidemic measures have been implemented,” Rospotrebnadzor said.

“There are no epidemic risks to the population of the city of Irkutsk and the Irkutsk region.”

But WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Moscow’s information remained insufficient.

“As we don’t yet have the full picture of this event, we are not able to conduct a full risk assessment,” Tedros stated.

“Timely, complete, and transparent information sharing under the International Health Regulations is essential to clarify conflicting reports and enable an accurate assessment of potential public health risks.”

China’s new precautions underscore the unresolved issue: Russia has declared the monitoring over without fully explaining the death that triggered international concern.

READ MORE – Dead Russian Scientist’s Mother Says Deadly Plague Didn’t ‘Accidentally’ Leak from Lab: ‘I Know the Truth’

 

Tencent moves to raise $5 billion in bonds to fund its AI buildout– startupfortune.com
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Tencent is going back to the debt market for the second time this year, this time looking for up to $5 billion, barely four months after its last bond sale and weeks after it agreed to lease 100,000 AI chips it can’t buy at home.

Tencent is planning an offshore bond sale of roughly $5 billion, split across US dollar and offshore yuan tranches, according to Bloomberg, while Reuters reported that the company was seeking at least $4.5 billion. It would be the company’s second major debt raise of 2026, coming after a $4.66 billion dual-currency offering in June that was already its largest since 2020. Two bond sales inside five months is not routine treasury management. It’s a company that has decided borrowing is cheaper, or at least faster, than waiting on cash flow to catch up with its ambitions.

Those ambitions got a lot more expensive in the second quarter. Tencent’s capital expenditure hit RMB 52.8 billion, about $7.8 billion, up 176% year over year and 65% from the prior quarter, largely on AI compute and data centers tied to its Hunyuan model family. Free cash flow went negative, down RMB 13.8 billion. Management told investors to expect spending to climb further in the second half, as more China-made AI chips become available to supplement what Tencent can get from abroad. That last part matters. Tencent has told fixed-income investors the new bond will mainly support AI-related capital expenditure, putting the fundraising directly behind its compute buildout.

Both China and the US are racing for chips, energy, talent, data centers, and global AI influence. The AI race isn’t just about who builds the smartest model. It’s about who writes the rules. Can the rest of the world trust one system more than the other? #dwbusiness #dwdip– www.facebook.com
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