Russia Watch

Blurb:

Iran’s regime is publicly rejecting a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, escalating tensions even as President Donald Trump signals a willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict.

State-run outlets in Tehran reported Wednesday that Iran “will not accept a ceasefire offer from the United States.”

The rejection underscores the regime’s refusal to de-escalate despite mounting international pressure.

Blurb:

Last May, NATO invited 10 Ukrainians to act as an opposing force during Hedgehog 2025, one of NATO’s largest exercises in the Baltics. The Ukrainians successfully simulated the destruction of 17 armored vehicles and conducted 30 strikes in half a day, effectively neutralizing two NATO battalions before dinner. One observing commander summed up the broader implication in three words: “We are finished.” Ominously, the exercise occurred without American forces.

The Western debate on Ukraine is sometimes framed as an act of generosity, with NATO propping up a beleaguered partner. This perspective is wrong and dangerously blind to a strategic asset for the alliance hiding in plain sight. Ukraine’s expertise has already proven vital, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announcing that Ukrainian experts are deploying to the Middle East to assist in countering Iranian Shahed drones, offering the United States concrete solutions to an otherwise expensive problem. Four years ago, the West answered Ukraine’s call for military aid. Now, Ukraine is ready to answer back.

Blurb:

The Russian public is pushing back against the planned ban of a popular app created by two Russians, with even pro-Kremlin voices fearing it could backfire. In a rare public opposition to blocking Telegram, the country’s most popular messaging channel, Vladimir Putin has been warned that the proposed ban could have negative consequences at home and on the battlefield.

But authorities have increasingly portrayed Telegram as contributing to terrorism and criminal activity, restricting the app and targeting its founder. Similar grounds have already been used to restrict other messaging apps, including the February block on WhatsApp.

From April 1, Telegram should be blocked completely too. Instead, the Kremlin is steering users towards its new state-backed messaging app, MAX, which is feared to be used for surveillance. The “national messenger” is similar in functionality to Telegram, but it’s also integrated with Russia‘s government services portal and can serve as a digital ID.

Blurb:

Russia said Wednesday it was “deeply outraged” by a reported strike on the grounds of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, which it partially constructed and helps operate.

“We are extremely outraged by this reckless, irresponsible manifestation of a disastrous course,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its website.

A projectile landed inside the plant’s compound late Tuesday but caused no damage, Iran’s atomic energy organization said, accusing the United States and Israel of attacking the facility.

Blurb:

Nearly half a ⁠million people were left without electricity in Russia’s Belgorod region, while 150,000 consumers ‌in the city of Chernihiv and surrounding areas were without power on Wednesday.

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The European Union on Tuesday postponed the unveiling of a law that would permanently ban Russian oil imports, coming amid supply disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East.

The April 15 unveiling date has reportedly been removed from the European Commission’s REPowerEU roadmap calendar.

EU Commission energy spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said a new date has not yet been determined, but stressed that Brussels remains “committed to making this proposal.”

Blurb:

After a few rounds of trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia, the diplomatic process aimed at putting an end to Moscow’s full-scale invasion has largely stalled with no clear progress in sight.

Kyiv’s delegation returned from two days of meetings in Miami with few tangible results, following what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as a discussion over “the key points, opportunities and challenges”.

“The most important thing is to work out security guarantees in such a way that they bring us closer to ending the war. Security is the key to peace.”

Blurb:

Russia has dispatched two tankers carrying oil and gas to Cuba as the island grapples with a deepening energy crisis exacerbated by a U.S. oil blockade, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.

The ships would be providing the Caribbean island nation with its first energy shipments in three months. Fuel shortages have pushed Cuba into one of its most severe economic crises in decades, with widespread blackouts and disruptions to basic services.

The Hong Kong-flagged tanker Sea Horse, which is believed to be loaded with around 27,000 tons of gas, is expected to arrive in Cuba in the coming days after diverting its course last month, Samir Madani, co-founder of maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers, told the FT.

A second vessel, the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, is carrying between 725,000 and 728,000 barrels of oil and is due to reach Cuba in early April, he said.

Blurb:

British Defence Minister Al Carns has warned “we live in very dangerous times” with soaring threats from Russia and the Middle East stretching from the “high north” to Iran. The alarm follows more than two weeks of the US-Israeli war on Iran, during which British troops have fought off drone and missile threats from Iran and its proxies.

Senior western officials have confirmed European militaries are increasingly concerned about the Strait and demands by America for countries such as the UK to become involved. A UK refusal to send ships to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz has caused huge tension from US President Donald Trump towards UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Blurb:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London on Tuesday for talks on peace and sanctions on Russia.

The meeting comes at a time when the Iran war has revived Russia’s ailing economy through increased oil revenue, robbed US-brokered talks to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine of momentum and could soon limit Kyiv’s access to vital Western air defence systems that are needed in the Middle East.

“We can’t lose focus on what’s going on in Ukraine and the need for our support,” Starmer said alongside Zelenskyy for talks at 10 Downing Street, which NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also attended.

“Putin can’t be the one who benefits from the conflict in Iran, whether that’s oil prices or the dropping of sanctions,” Starmer said. “It is really important we keep our resolve in relation to supporting Ukraine, doing everything we can to weaken the hand of Putin.”

Blurb:

Vladimir Putin’s “hidden hand” is likely helping Iran respond to Donald Trump’s war, the UK defence secretary has said, as it emerged that Iranian-linked drones hit a base in Iraq where some British troops are located.

They were not hurt.

John Healey said attacks by Iranian forces against targets across the Middle East “have the hallmarks” of how Russian troops operate in their war against Ukraine.

Blurb:

The United States has proposed another round of Russia-Ukraine talks next week, mediated by Washington, on ending four years of war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday.

Two rounds of trilateral talks failed to reach a breakthrough to end Europe’s worst conflict since World War II, launched by Moscow in 2022.

Zelensky said in an audio message sent to reporters, including AFP, that talks — initially planned for last week in the United Arab Emirates — had been postponed until next week by the U.S.

Blurb:

Russia has reportedly provided Iran with information that could help the regime target U.S. military assets across the Middle East, a development that adds a dangerous new layer to a war that is already widening by the day.

U.S. intelligence officials believe Moscow passed along information that could be used against American warships, aircraft and other military positions in the region. The officials told The Associated Press there is no indication Russia is directly ordering Tehran how to use the information, but the disclosure still marks the clearest sign yet that Moscow may be trying to assist Iran as the conflict intensifies.

The report lands as U.S. and Israeli forces continue pounding Iranian targets and as Tehran keeps launching retaliatory attacks against American positions and U.S. partners in the Gulf.

The White House believes the United States is “well on its way” toward controlling Iranian airspace and expects its core military objectives could be completed within four to six weeks. President Donald Trump has also taken a harder public line, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” as the campaign moves deeper into its second week.

Blurb:

VLADIMIR Putin is reportedly willing to accept a deal on Ukraine, according to a senior aide to President Zelenskyy.

Ukrainian Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov made the surprise claim during an interview on Ukrainian television.

Ukraine’s Chief of Staff has claimed Vladimir Putin may finally be willing to accept a peace dealCredit: AFP
Zelensky has maintained his demand for security guarantees throughout negotiationsCredit: AFP
Both countries have continued to exchange missile blows, targeting key infrastructureCredit: Getty

“At the last talks, the Russian side said, for example, that they would accept the security guarantees offered to Ukraine by the United States,” he said.

The Kremlin has not confirmed the remarks.

If accurate, they would represent the most significant shift in negotiations since the conflict began four years ago.

It remains unclear what form those US security guarantees would take.

Blurb:

The crude oil shipment destined for MOL Group is already being loaded at the state-owned Janaf’s Omišalj terminal, the Croatian oil company announced on Wednesday, per a report from HVG. According to the statement, this will not be the only shipment, as seven more tankers will arrive by the beginning of April.

Janaf emphasized in its statement that it is not Russian crude oil that is being supplied to Hungarians, and yet, the company is ready to meet the entire annual demand of refineries in both Slovakia and Hungary.

Blurb:

TRUMP AND ZELENSKY SPEAK: A day after President Donald Trump publicly ignored the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and barely mentioned the war in his State of the Union address, the president resumed his pressure campaign to convince Volodymyr Zelensky he has little choice but to make a quick deal to end the war before things get worse.

“I just spoke with @POTUS Donald Trump,” Zelensky posted on X yesterday after a phone call with Trump, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. “I thanked them for all their work and for their active involvement in the negotiations and the efforts to end the war.”

In the 30-minute call, Trump told Zelensky he wants to see an end to the war “as soon as possible,” Axios reported, citing “a Ukrainian official and two other sources with knowledge of the call.”

Blurb:

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a ruthless attack order in the face of peace efforts(Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Russia launched a mass overnight onslaught of almost 500 bombs on Ukraine injuring at least 26 people – as the Kremlin dampened peace talk hopes.

At least 420 deadly drones and dozens of missiles were used in the attack, plus anti-ship , ballistic and cruise weapons , many of which were aimed at Kyiv and seven other regions.

Blurb:

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has announced he will ask the Slovak Electricity Transmission System (SEPS) to stop emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine in retaliation for Kyiv’s refusal to resume Russian crude oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline.

In a video message posted on social media on Sunday, Fico said he would visit SEPS on Monday to request the suspension of electricity deliveries, further increasing tensions between so-called “dissenting” member states like Slovakia and Hungary, and the European Commission.

“If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells us to buy gas and oil elsewhere than in Russia — even though it is more difficult and expensive, which costs us a lot of money — then we have the right to respond,” Fico told followers.

Blurb:

 

After reports of Iranian missile fire in the most strategically important shipping lane in the Persian Gulf, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to all maritime traffic for several hours due to a “Smart Control” exercise conducted by the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps…. At the same time, Russia, China and Iran deployed naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz for joint maneuvers, Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev said Tuesday. It was not immediately clear whether the Russian and Chinese ships had already joined the ongoing Iranian drill or were expected to participate in the coming days (Israel Hayom).

Blurb:

EU confirms hopes to adopt new sanctions against Russia by 24 February

The European Commission is just giving its daily midday press briefing, and it has confirmed plans to adopt the new, 20th, round of sanctions against Russia by 24 February, the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion on Ukraine.

Foreign affairs spokesperson Anouar El Anouni said:

We keep on working on measures to deprive Russia of the funds, goods and technologies sustaining its war against Ukraine.

This indeed includes the 20th package that you have mentioned, and indeed we aim to adopt it … by 24 February, as the High Representative [Kaja Kallas] mentioned at the last foreign affairs council. Member states are discussing it.”

Blurb:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that he met with Democrat senators to discuss plans for ramping up “pressure” on Russia.

Zelensky confirmed that he met with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI).

The meeting highlights the continued efforts from Democrats to influence Ukrainian leadership as the war with Russia drags on.

In a video included in a post on X, Blumenthal can be heard greeting Zelensky and expressing interest in further cooperation.