Russia Watch

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Russia on Monday declared a unilateral ceasefire with Ukraine between May 8-9, when Moscow holds its annual World War II Victory Day commemorations, and threatened a “massive missile strike” on Kyiv if Ukraine violated it.

Ukraine responded by declaring a truce of its own between May 5-6, saying it was “not serious” to expect it to observe a ceasefire during a Russian military holiday.

The quarrelling between the two sides comes with a lull in U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to end the war, as Washington shifts its focus to conflict in the Middle East.

Russian strikes killed nine people across Ukraine on Monday, according to Ukrainian officials, while a Ukrainian drone crashed into a high-rise building in an upscale Moscow neighborhood overnight.

“In accordance with a decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin, a ceasefire has been declared from May 8–9, 2026… We hope that the Ukrainian side will follow suit,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a post on state-backed messaging service MAX.

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Russia lost more territory than it gained in Ukraine in April for the first time since a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, an AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed.

Moscow ceded control of about 120 square kilometers (46 square miles) between March and April, the ISW data revealed.

Despite the fighting at the front reaching a near stalemate, intense and deadly drone-dominated attacks have continued unabated in recent months, while U.S.-led talks on the conflict have stalled as the Middle East war grinds on.

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Vladimir Putin has threatened Kyiv with his most massive strike of the war if Ukrainian drones disrupt his major military parade in Moscow on Saturday. His defence ministry warned that civilians and diplomats should leave the city promptly if Volodymyr Zelensky attacks the Red Square showpiece, citing a rapid and massive retaliatory missile strike.

The Russian warning implies a hit by the hypersonic Oreshnik missile, which Putin boasts has the power of a full nuclear explosion even in its conventional mode. Putin said previously that using several such systems at once would be comparable in strength to a nuclear strike. His favourite newspaper, Komsomolskaya Pravda, warned today that Oreshnik also has a nuclear configuration.

Vladimir Putin has threatened Kyiv with the most massive strike of the war if Ukrainian drones disrupt his major military parade in Moscow this Saturday. His defence ministry warned that civilians and diplomats should leave the city promptly if Volodymyr Zelensky attacks the Red Square showpiece, citing a rapid and massive retaliatory missile strike.

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ŠIAULIAI AIR BASE, Lithuania — NATO intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets that flew over the Baltic Sea on Monday, a muscular display of air power on the alliance’s eastern flank away from the spotlight on the Middle East.

French Rafale fighters were deployed from a Lithuanian air base where they are stationed as part of a decades-long NATO air-policing effort. The fighters armed with air-to-air missiles joined jets from Sweden, Finland, Poland, Denmark and Romania. They all took to the skies to inspect and keep watch on the Russian flight, the French detachment said.

The Russian mission included two supersonic Tu-22M3s, as well as about 10 fighters — both SU-30s and SU-35s — that took turns escorting the larger strategic bombers, according to the statement.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the long-range bombers’ flight was scheduled and occurred in airspace over the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea. The flight took more than four hours, the ministry said Monday on Telegram.

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Sweden is bracing itself for a potential Russian operation to seize the island of Gotland, according to the country’s military chief.

Swedish Chief of Defence Michael Claesson warned that Moscow could execute a land grab “at any time” in order to put NATO’s determination to the test.

“It doesn’t have to be particularly extensive at all, but more to make a point and wait to see what might happen politically,” Claesson said.

NATO military exercises have traditionally centred on a potential Russian land assault along the alliance’s eastern flank, however focus is now turning towards the Baltic Sea.

War games have simulated possible Russian landings on strategically vital islands such as Gotland in Sweden, Bornholm in Denmark, and Hiiumaa and Saaremaa in Estonia.

Swedish military intelligence has cautioned that Russia is capable of broadening its conflict in the years ahead.

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A gunman who killed at least six people in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, before taking hostages and barricading himself inside a supermarket on Saturday has been shot and killed by police, Ukrainian officials said.

Ukraine’s special tactical police units stormed the store after attempts to contact the gunman with a negotiator failed, the head of Ukraine’s Interior Ministry, Ihor Klymenko, said in a statement on social media. The attacker was killed while resisting arrest, he said.

Speaking to reporters at the scene, Klymenko said that the gunman had killed four bystanders while on the street, before entering the supermarket and killing a fifth person.

Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that a sixth victim, a young woman, died from her injuries in the hospital.

An Associated Press reporter on the scene saw the bodies of the victims in the street covered by emergency blankets before they were taken away.

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The Kremlin said Monday that a new U.S. sanctions waiver on Russian oil exports proves that the commodity is too vital to the global economy to be sidelined.

“Russia remains a responsible and very important player in global energy markets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “The market is going through tough times and, of course, Russian volumes are difficult not to take into account and ignore.”

The U.S. Treasury Department issued the extension on Friday, allowing for the purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto ships between April 17 and May 16. The move is part of an ongoing effort to stabilize global energy prices, which have surged following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

Several Asian countries had lobbied Washington for an extension as they looked for alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Indonesia announced a new agreement to receive Russian crude, while Malaysia said its state energy firm, Petronas, is negotiating its own purchases.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday condemned the easing of sanctions on Russian oil after the United States extended a waiver meant to soften surging energy prices driven by the Middle East war.

“Every dollar paid for Russian oil is money for the war” and is used for devastating strikes on Ukraine, Zelensky said in a post on X.

Zelensky did not mention the United States, but President Donald Trump’s administration on Friday issued a month-long sanctions waiver allowing the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products that are at sea.

The action was intended to bring down soaring energy prices. But the U.S. Treasury Department extension came two days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington would not renew the waiver.

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Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hailed the opposition win in Hungary as “the victory of light over darkness,” as he called for “pragmatic, friendly” relations with the new administration.

Speaking alongside the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, Zelenskyy said that he hoped for “pragmatic” and “friendly” relations with the new Magyar government – in sharp contrast with hostile Orbán administration.

“I am sure we will cooperate with Hungary,” he said, expressing hope Ukraine will be able to “build our relations” with the new government based on “cooperation” and “respect for each other.”

He said that the damaged Druzhba pipeline which has been at the heart of tensions between Ukraine and Hungary in recent months will be repaired by the end of April. “Not completely, but enough to function,” he said.

Zelenskyy also briefly commented on the outcome in the Hungarian election, saying:

“The elections when the Hungarian people made their choice were on Sunday, 12 April. In

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Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Iran has an “inalienable” right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes during a state visit to China on Wednesday, according to the Times of Israel.

“The right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes is an inalienable right of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Lavrov said during a Tuesday press conference following a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to the Times of Israel.

Magyar’s remarks on energy supplies from Russia cause tensions in Kiev — media – World tass.com
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MOSCOW, April 14. /TASS/. The stance of Peter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party – victorious in Hungary’s recent elections – regarding oil and gas supplies from Russia is poised to influence Hungary’s relations with Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian media outlet Strana.

The publication suggests that Magyar’s apparent intention to preserve Russian energy imports could be a significant source of tension between the two nations.

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Russia and China on Tuesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz that had been repeatedly watered down in hopes those two countries would abstain.

The vote — 11-2, with two abstentions from Pakistan and Colombia— took place just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump issued an unprecedented threat that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not open the strategic waterway and make a deal before his 8 p.m. Eastern deadline. One-fifth of the world’s oil typically passes through the strait, and Iran’s stranglehold during the war has sent energy prices soaring.

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Chinese Workers Protest Unpaid Wages in Russia’s Far East – www.themoscowtimes.com
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Chinese workers building a fuel-making unit at a Rosneft refinery in Far East Russia’s Khabarovsk region took to the streets on Sunday to protest unpaid wages, regional authorities said Monday.

At least 200 employees of the Russian-Chinese contractor Petro-Hehua marched through the city of Komsomolsk-na-Amure demanding back payments and help from both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin.

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Russian troops continue special military operation after Easter truce ends — top brass – Russian Politics & Diplomacy – tass.com

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MOSCOW, April 13. /TASS/. Russian troops continued their special military operation in Ukraine after the Orthodox Easter truce ended, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

“With the end of the truce, the Russian Armed Forces continued the special military operation,” the ministry said in a statement.

All the Russian battlegroups strictly observed the ceasefire and stayed in their previously held positions, the ministry reported.

“In compliance with an order by the supreme commander-in-chief of the Russian Armed Forces, all the battlegroups in the special military operation area strictly observed the ceasefire from 4:00 p.m. on April 11 to the end of April 12 and stayed in their previously held positions,” the ministry said.

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In case you were still wondering why the Democrats were so militant about funding Ukraine and why Democrats and RINOs are now targeting Orban.

Watch Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, lay out explosive charges that Ukrainian funds were funneled through Europe to influence U.S. elections and benefit Democrats.This major scandal has serious legal and national security implications, raising urgent questions about foreign money, campaign integrity, and the handling of U.S. taxpayer funds tied to the Ukraine war.

WATCH:

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According to Zelenskyy, Kyiv has information that Moscow shared data on “some 50–53 facilities in total,” adding that these are civilian infrastructure sites with no military significance.

“It resembles the lives of Ukrainians under Russian attacks, when they target our energy grid or water supply systems,” Zelenskyy said.

“Of course, all the experience Russia has obtained during the war against Ukraine is being shared with Iran. This was the case with Shaheds, the same drones the Russians have, only used under a different name and upgraded to newer generations.”

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CAIRO — Ukrainian forces are operating in western Libya under a covert deal endorsed by the West, and they used the Northern African country’s territory to strike a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean last month, two Libyan officials said Tuesday.

The Russian-flagged Arctic Metagaz, carrying 61,000 tons of liquefied natural gas, was badly damaged in a suspected sea drone attack near Maltese waters early in March. It has since drifted off Libya. All 30 crew members were rescued and put on another vessel heading to the Libyan city of Benghazi, the Libyan Maritime Authority said.

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BANGKOK — Asian nations are increasingly competing for Russian crude oil as an energy crisis mounts amid the month-old war by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, which has choked off roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Much of the oil from the mostly shut Strait of Hormuz was headed for Asia, hit hardest by recent energy shocks. Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the conflict, further threatening shipping.

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Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev confirmed Wednesday that Russia is sending “humanitarian” shipments of oil to Cuba after ship-tracking data earlier appeared to show that at least one tanker had unloaded Russian crude in Havana.

Cuba, which imports around 60% of its energy supply, previously relied on oil sold by Venezuela. Those shipments ended after then-President Nicolás Maduro was captured in a U.S. military raid.

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Iran’s regime is publicly rejecting a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, escalating tensions even as President Donald Trump signals a willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict.

State-run outlets in Tehran reported Wednesday that Iran “will not accept a ceasefire offer from the United States.”

The rejection underscores the regime’s refusal to de-escalate despite mounting international pressure.

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Last May, NATO invited 10 Ukrainians to act as an opposing force during Hedgehog 2025, one of NATO’s largest exercises in the Baltics. The Ukrainians successfully simulated the destruction of 17 armored vehicles and conducted 30 strikes in half a day, effectively neutralizing two NATO battalions before dinner. One observing commander summed up the broader implication in three words: “We are finished.” Ominously, the exercise occurred without American forces.

The Western debate on Ukraine is sometimes framed as an act of generosity, with NATO propping up a beleaguered partner. This perspective is wrong and dangerously blind to a strategic asset for the alliance hiding in plain sight. Ukraine’s expertise has already proven vital, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announcing that Ukrainian experts are deploying to the Middle East to assist in countering Iranian Shahed drones, offering the United States concrete solutions to an otherwise expensive problem. Four years ago, the West answered Ukraine’s call for military aid. Now, Ukraine is ready to answer back.

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The Russian public is pushing back against the planned ban of a popular app created by two Russians, with even pro-Kremlin voices fearing it could backfire. In a rare public opposition to blocking Telegram, the country’s most popular messaging channel, Vladimir Putin has been warned that the proposed ban could have negative consequences at home and on the battlefield.

But authorities have increasingly portrayed Telegram as contributing to terrorism and criminal activity, restricting the app and targeting its founder. Similar grounds have already been used to restrict other messaging apps, including the February block on WhatsApp.

From April 1, Telegram should be blocked completely too. Instead, the Kremlin is steering users towards its new state-backed messaging app, MAX, which is feared to be used for surveillance. The “national messenger” is similar in functionality to Telegram, but it’s also integrated with Russia‘s government services portal and can serve as a digital ID.

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Russia said Wednesday it was “deeply outraged” by a reported strike on the grounds of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, which it partially constructed and helps operate.

“We are extremely outraged by this reckless, irresponsible manifestation of a disastrous course,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its website.

A projectile landed inside the plant’s compound late Tuesday but caused no damage, Iran’s atomic energy organization said, accusing the United States and Israel of attacking the facility.