Middle East Watch

In my column last week about the situation in Iran (“The Fog of Prewar in Iran”), I wrote:

Many commentators, noting Trump’s oft-proclaimed desire for “peace on earth,” believe he has paused to see if negotiations with Iran might end the slaughter. I doubt it. Trump’s desire for peace is perfectly genuine. But I note that the last time he said he wanted “peace on earth” was when he was asked whether he had any New Year’s resolutions just a couple of weeks ago. That was mere hours before he unleashed hell against the Venezuelan tyrant Nicolás Maduro, extracting him and his wife from their heavily fortified compound in Caracas and whisking them to New York in a stunning and perfectly executed special operations raid.

He has become so emboldened that he is shamelessly calling the massacre of tens of thousands of Iranians a “celebration.”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is speaking like a man who believes he has won. As nationwide protests subside and U.S. threats go unenforced, Iran’s supreme leader has openly branded the mass killing of protesters a “celebration,” boasting that the regime “broke the back of the rioters.” His rhetoric reflects an emboldened regime claiming victory, shifting blame for its own atrocities onto the United States, and signaling to Iranians—and the world—that terror, not restraint, remains the Islamic Republic’s chosen instrument of rule.

Khamenei today: “We broke the back of the rioters. The day of the successful crackdown will be remembered as a day of celebration for years to come.” 👇

He has become so emboldened that he is shamelessly calling the massacre of tens of thousands of Iranians a “celebration.” pic.twitter.com/gW3zDzpAps

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) January 17, 2026

After weeks of escalating tension, U.S. and Iranian officials faced each other Thursday at the U.N. Security Council, where America’s envoy renewed threats against the Islamic Republic despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to lower the temperature between the two adversaries.

The U.S. was joined by Iranian dissidents in rebuking the government’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests that activists say has killed at least 2,637 people.

“Colleagues, let me be clear: President Trump is a man of action, not endless talk like we see at the United Nations,” Mike Waltz, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said in a statement. “He has made it clear that all options are on the table to stop the slaughter. And no one should know that better than the leadership of the Iranian regime.”

Iran medics: hospitals overwhelmed with dead and injured protesters. There were “direct shots to the heads of the young people, to their hearts as well.”
“There wasn’t enough space in the morgue, so bodies were stacked one on top of another. https://t.co/qNwHtRdttJ

— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) January 11, 2026

“We are now seeing the rats fleeing the ship, because we can see millions, tens of millions of dollars being wired out of the country, snuck out of the country by the Iranian leadership,” Bessent said. “So they are abandoning ship, and we are seeing it come into banks and financial institutions all over the world.”

Not exactly a vote of confidence for the regime’s future.

While the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the mass demonstrations like those of January 8-11 may have disappeared, Iran is like a simmering pot ready to boil over. The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Critical Threat Project (CTP), partnering with ISW, reports that the horrific slaughter carried out by regime forces and foreign militias on January 8-9 has been effective in clearing the streets, but the revolutionary fervor has not been dimmed.

CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 14, but the regime is sustaining repressive measures that impose a significant cost on the regime. This suggests that the regime does not perceive that the threat from protests has subsided. The regime is maintaining security force mobilizations, which risks exhausting and burning out these forces. Security forces are patrolling streets in towns and cities across Iran to prevent Iranians from holding demonstrations.[8] Sources in Chalus, Mazandaran Province, for example, told a BBC Persian reporter on January 11 that “security forces with machine guns have been stationed in all streets.”[9] The widespread deployment of security patrols is likely contributing to the decrease in recorded protest activity because these patrols are likely deterring some Iranians from participating in protests.

The US has opened a new air and missile defense coordination cell at a key airbase in Qatar amid rising tensions with Iran and President Donald Trump’s promises to assist protesters in the Islamic Republic.

In a statement on Tuesday, US Central Command said the facility at the Al Udeid Air Base, which houses some 10,000 troops, will be comprised of American and allied personnel and seeks to “enhance integrated air and missile defense.” The new cell is also intended to tighten information-sharing, threat warning, drills and joint responses for air and missile defense, US officials said.

Reuters reported, citing three unnamed diplomats, that some personnel had been advised to leave the base by Wednesday evening for unknown reasons. The agency noted that the US took the same measures ahead of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, while the Al Udeid Air Base came under a retaliatory attack from Tehran at the time.

The move comes amid soaring US-Iran tensions, with Trump offering symbolic support for the riots, which began in late December as protests over the sharp devaluation of the Iranian rial and the sanctioned country’s cost-of-living crisis. The US president, in particular, has urged Iranians to keep protesting and said “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” while also warning of “very strong” action in case of a harsh crackdown on rioters. At the same time, Trump did not rule out talks with Iran.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran did not seek war but was prepared for it, and Iranian officials have warned neighboring states that host US forces that they could face retaliation if Washington attacks. Officials in Tehran have also insisted that the US and Israel had had a “big hand” in fostering the current protests.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have privately pressed Washington not to strike Iran, warning that a conflict could trigger severe regional instability and disrupt oil markets, the Wall Street Journal reported.

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