Iran Watch

Blurb:

The exiled son of Iran’s last shah, who has emerged as a prominent voice in the fragmented opposition, made his strongest call yet for the protests to broaden into a revolt to topple the clerical rulers.

State media said a municipal building was set on fire in Karaj, west of Tehran, and blamed “rioters”. State TV broadcast footage of funerals of members of the security forces it said were killed in protests in the cities of Shiraz, Qom and Hamedan.

Footage posted on Friday on social media showed large crowds gathered in Tehran and fires lit in the street. In one video verified by Reuters showing a nighttime protest in Tehran’s Saadatabad district, a man is heard saying the crowd had taken over the area.

“The crowd is coming. ‘Death to the dictator’, ‘Death to Khamenei’,” he said, referring to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Protests have spread across Iran since Dec 28, beginning in response to soaring inflation, and quickly turning political with protesters demanding an end to clerical rule. Authorities accuse the US and Israel of fomenting unrest.

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U.S. forces conducted strikes against ISIS targets in Syria on January 10 in what appears to be payback for the January 6 attack that killed two Iowa National Guard soldiers and a U.S. civilian interpreter, according to reporting by Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson.

Tomlinson reported the strikes live, describing them as a measured U.S. response following the deadly Palmyra-area incident that targeted U.S. personnel. As of this writing, U.S. Central Command has not issued a formal statement confirming the operation, a common delay while assessments are ongoing.

The reported strikes follow a familiar pattern. After the January 6 attack, the U.S. launched Operation Hawkeye Strike on December 19, hitting more than 70 ISIS targets across central Syria with over 100 precision munitions, according to CENTCOM. Today’s reported action appears more limited, suggesting a focused effort against high-value ISIS targets rather than a broad campaign.

While details remain unconfirmed, defense analysts expect the operation involved precision airstrikes designed to limit collateral damage while reinforcing deterrence. Platforms commonly used in similar operations include F-15E strike aircraft, A-10s, or remotely piloted aircraft operating from U.S. positions in the region.

Blurb:

President Trump was briefed on new options for military strikes in Iran, a senior U.S. official confirmed Sunday.

Mr. Trump appeared to lay out his red line for action on Friday when he warned that if the Iranian government began “killing people like they have in the past, we would get involved.”

“We’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts,” he said at the White House. “And that doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.”

On social media, Mr. Trump offered his support for the protesters, saying that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”

Mr. Trump’s warnings come as nationwide unrest challenging Iran’s theocracy crossed the two-week mark. At least 538 people have died in violence surrounding the demonstrations, U.S.-based activists said, with fears the death toll is far higher. More than 10,600 people have been arrested, the Human Rights Activists News Agency said.

Blurb:

 

A reporter asked President Donald Trump about the protests in Iran:

REPORTER: There’s been protesters killed in Iran. You said we were locked and loaded, ready to go. What is the line there for when the US is going to get involved in those protests?

TRUMP: We’ll take a look. We’re watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.

Blurb:

A member of Iran’s security forces was killed during a fourth day of protests in the country, which have been sparked by a currency collapse, the semi-official Fars news agency has reported.

Citing regional official Said Pourali, Fars said the incident happened in the city of Kouhdasht, in the western Lorestan province, adding that a number of members of the security forces were also injured.

Footage verified by BBC Persian appears to show security forces firing at protesters in the city on the same day.

Blurb:

President Donald Trump warned Friday that the United States would step in if Iran’s regime turns its guns on peaceful protesters, as economic demonstrations across the Islamic Republic spiral into deadly unrest.

If Iran “kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” Trump wrote in an overnight post on Truth Social.

Iranian leaders quickly fired back, threatening retaliation and warning that any U.S. involvement would put American forces in the Middle East in the crosshairs.

Blurb:

Two people are reported to have been killed during growing unrest in Iran on the fifth day of protests over the soaring cost of living.

Both the semi-official Fars news agency and human rights group, Hengaw, said people had died during clashes between protesters and security forces in the city of Lordegan, in south-western Iran.

On Thursday videos posted on social media showed cars set on fire during running battles between protesters and security forces.

Many protesters have called for ending the rule of the country’s supreme leader. Some have also called for a return to the monarchy.

Blurb:

 

Dubai:

Widening demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy spread Thursday into the Islamic Republic’s rural provinces, with at least six people being killed in the first fatalities reported among security forces and protesters, authorities said.

The deaths may mark the start of a heavier-handed response by Iran’s theocracy over the demonstrations, which have slowed in the capital, Tehran, but expanded elsewhere. The fatalities, one on Wednesday and five on Thursday, occurred in three cities predominantly home to Iran’s Lur ethnic group.

Iran executes man for alleged spying for Israel, activists say he was tortured into false confession– abcnews.go.com
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Excerpt:

Iran says it executed a man accused of spying for Israel, but activists dispute the claim, saying he was tortured into a false confession

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran said Wednesday it executed a man it alleges spied for Israel, something disputed by activists who say he was tortured into a false confession.

The judiciary’s Mizan news agency identified the executed man as Babak Shahbazi, who it claimed had gathered and sold sensitive information about Iranian data centers and security installations to Israeli handlers.

Activists however said Shahbazi was detained over writing a letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offering his help.

Iran has supplied Russia with drones that Moscow has used to attack Ukraine.

The group Iran Human Rights had warned Shahbazi could be executed.

“Babak’s message to President Zelenskyy offering to help in the war against Russia was used as an example of espionage for Israel who they claim taught Babak to use Microsoft Word,” the group said. Iran did not acknowledge that claim.

Europeans say Iran has yet to take necessary actions to stop the ‘snapback’ of UN sanctions– abcnews.go.com
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Excerpt:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — European officials warned Iran on Wednesday it had yet to take the actions needed to stop the return of United Nations sanctions over its nuclear program.

The comments from the German Foreign Ministry and the European Union came after a call Iran had Wednesday with representatives of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas.

“The window for finding a diplomatic solution on Iran’s nuclear issue is closing really fast,” Kallas warned in a statement. “Iran must show credible steps towards addressing the demands of France, (the) U.K. and Germany, and this means demonstrating full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and allowing inspections of all nuclear sites without delay.”

The German Foreign Ministry separately wrote on the social platform X that “Iran has yet to take the reasonable and precise actions necessary to” stop the reimposition of U.N. sanctions.

Iran had no immediate comment on the call, though it had acknowledged earlier that the call would take place. Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency earlier reached a deal mediated by Egypt to grant the U.N. watchdog access to all Iranian nuclear sites and for Tehran to report on the whereabouts of all its nuclear material. It remained unclear when Iran will make that report.

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BERLIN — The top diplomats of Britain, France, and Germany threatened to reimpose sanctions on Iran as an end-of-the-month deadline nears for the country to resume negotiations with the West over its nuclear program and cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog.

The three countries, known as the E3, wrote in a letter to the United Nations dated Friday that they were willing to trigger a process known as the “snapback” mechanism, which allows one of the Western parties to reimpose U.N. sanctions, if Tehran doesn’t comply with its requirements.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Nöel Barrot posted the letter Wednesday to X. He co-signed it along with top diplomats from Germany and the United Kingdom.

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After the recent Israeli war against the Iranian regime and the American attack on the Fordo nuclear site, the mullahs in Tehran are feeling the heat. This is the most fragile the regime has been over the past 46 years, and talk of regime change is spreading. For the past year and a half, some in the regime have been preparing for a plan B, in case they need to flee urgently. While that does not mean that the regime is about to fall, it is still a valid indicator of the nervousness of the leadership.

After Hamas, one of Iran’s proxies, attacked Israel by surprise on October 7, 2023, the Iranian regime and its allies have sustained major military and strategic losses at the hands of Israel. For instance, Hezbollah, from far its most powerful proxy, is just a shadow of itself after the elimination of most of its leadership, including its long-time ruthless chief Hassan Nasrallah. Therefore, apparatchiks of the regime started panicking, deciding that it was time to either turn against the regime by defecting and/or working for the Israelis or the Americans to build a life abroad.

Iran vows to press on with nuke enrichment despite Trump’s threats and ‘serious damage’ done by stealth bombings– www.thesun.co.uk
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Excerpt:

IRAN has vowed to push on with nuclear enrichment – in a stark warning to the west following Donald Trump’s stealth blitz on Tehran’s nuke plants.

The pariah state pledged to enrich uranium, despite the 12-day war which started over fears the mullahs were dangerously close to getting a nuclear warhead.

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Israel successfully assassinated 19 senior Iranian nuclear scientists during the 12-Day War, depriving Tehran’s atomic “weapons program of its most capable and experienced personnel,” according to a new intelligence assessment by a leading nonproliferation organization.

The military campaign evaporated decades of nuclear know-how, striking at the heart of Tehran’s weapons program in a way kinetic attacks could not, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.

“This act weakened Iran’s base for building nuclear weapons, eliminating needed expertise and hard-to-get management experience,” the organization determined. “This time the Israeli effort is different, and recovering may be far more difficult and take far longer.”

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The BRICS bloc of developing nations at their summit in Brazil on Sunday condemned the increase of tariffs and attacks on Iran, but refrained from naming US President Donald Trump.

The group’s declaration, which also took aim at Israeli military actions in the Middle East, spared its founding member Russia from criticism and mentioned war-torn Ukraine only once.

The bloc issued a declaration in which they raised “serious concerns” about the rise of tariffs which it said were “inconsistent with WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules.” In an indirect swipe at the US, they said those restrictions ”threaten to reduce global trade, disrupt global supply chains and introduce uncertainty.”

Lula also criticised NATO’s decision to hike defence spending up to 5% of member states’ GDP. He said it was “always easier to invest in war than peace.”

The declaration also criticised the attacks on Iran without mentioning the US or Israel, the two nations who conducted them.

BRICS leaders expressed “grave concern” for the humanitarian situation in Gaza, called for the release of all hostages, a return to the negotiating table and reaffirmed their commitment to the two-state solution.

The group’s 31-page declaration mentions Ukraine just once, while condemning “in the strongest terms” recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia.