Election Watch

Blurb:

Alexander Vindman launched a Democratic Senate campaign in Florida on Tuesday, catapulting himself back into the limelight after emerging as a key whistleblower in President Donald Trump’s first-term impeachment.

“The last time you saw me was here, swearing an oath to tell the truth about a president who broke his,” Vindman said in a launch video, referencing clips depicting his congressional testimony during Trump’s impeachment trial. “See, my family came here as refugees to escape tyranny, and I sure as hell wasn’t going to bow down to some wannabe tyrant.”

Blurb:

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was surprised by Republican Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt’s decision to miss a critical vote Thursday while Republicans work to pass their agenda with a razor-thin majority.

Hunt, who is vying in a brutal three-way Texas Senate primary, was absent while House Republicans advanced a rule teeing up votes on four appropriations bills, including a measure funding the Department of Homeland Security. Though House Republicans did not end up needing Hunt’s vote to advance the funding bills, Republican leadership has voiced irritation about the Senate hopeful’s frequent absences while he campaigns ahead of the March 3 primary.

Blurb:

Democrats have every intention of restarting lawfare against President Donald Trump and his allies the very moment he leaves office, and Republicans need to start taking that threat seriously.

At a Thursday hearing of the House Judiciary Committee, where the sole witness was get-Trump lawfare specialist Jack Smith, the former special counsel who brought bogus charges against Trump twice, Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., said the quiet part out loud in an exchange with Smith.

“Those indictments have been dismissed. Can they be re-brought or resurrected after this, after Trump leaves office?” Johnson asked.

Blurb:

A new poll suggests that the coalition that returned President Donald Trump to the White House after a four-year hiatus may be eroding.

These numbers come as Republicans seek to defend their narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections, when replicating Trump’s 2024 support levels from low-propensity voters was always going to be a challenge.

Trump has lost ground with nonwhite and younger voters, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll released on Thursday. His gains with these voters compared to 2020 helped him win the popular vote and defeat former Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris is considering another run for president in 2028, though Trump is subject to term limits.

Blurb:

The Daily Signal’s Virginia Correspondent Joe Thomas is out with a new podcast breaking down Virginia Democrats’ effort to redistrict the commonwealth.

Now that Democrats are fully in control of the commonwealth, they are moving forward with a plan that could add four Democrat seats and ultimately determine the balance of power in Washington after the 2026 midterms.

Thomas called the move, which could change the Virginia congressional delegation from six Democrats and five Republicans to 10 Democrats and just one Republican, “reactionary.”

Blurb:

A new statewide survey of likely Georgia Republican primary voters shows U.S. Rep. Mike Collins out front in a crowded GOP field, with President Donald Trump enjoying sky-high approval among the party faithful.

The poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters, conducted by conservative-leaning Public Opinion Strategies, finds Collins benefiting from strong name recognition. Seventy-one percent of voters say they are familiar with the northeast Georgia congressman, the highest of any candidate tested.

On a hypothetical primary ballot, Collins leads with 32%, well ahead of U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter at 16% and former football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. Roughly one-third of voters remain undecided. When asked to pick a second choice, respondents were scattered, underscoring how fluid the race remains.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA)

Blurb:

 

Democrats, ever desperate for one-party control, filed a lawsuit in October claiming that New York City’s only Republican-held congressional district was unconstitutionally drawn because it allegedly “dilutes black and Latino voting strength.”

The Staten Island plaintiffs, represented by the Washington, D.C.-based Elias Law Group, demanded that the map — which was approved by the Democrat-controlled state legislature and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in 2024 — be redrawn such that it’d be virtually impossible for Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis to defend her district.

Blurb:

Rep. John James, a Michigan Republican running for governor, has launched a new ad tying the fate of Trump’s second term and the America First agenda to James’ home state of Michigan.

On Thursday, James released an ad titled “Impeached,” claiming that Michigan, with its open U.S. Senate seat and four competitive House races, is “ground zero” in the fight to keep Congress under Republican control.

Recent polling indicates that James holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary and a slight edge in the general election in November.

The ad suggests that if Congress falls into the hands of the Democrats after the 2026 midterms, Trump will be “impeached” and his “Cabinet dragged before hearings led by AOC and Rashida Tlaib,” referring to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Tlaib (D-Mich.).

In the ad, James, currently a Michigan congressman who has “backed President Trump every time,” makes the pitch to MAGA Michiganders that his election to be their next governor is vital to protecting Trump and his ability to continue implementing his policies: “If you care about President Trump, you must stand up for John James.”

Blurb:

Republicans are bleeding support among independent voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to new polling.

An Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday found that congressional Democrats have a 22-point advantage over Republicans (50% to 28%) with independent voters. With roughly 90% of likely Republican and Democratic voters planning to support their party’s respective congressional candidates in 2026, according to Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball, independents are likely to have outsized influence over November’s elections.

Blurb:

Yesterday, we shared with you that Colorado Rep. Brittany Pettersen said the Democrats are already laying the groundwork to impeach President Trump if they regain control of the House in November’s midterms. She wasn’t an outlier. Rep. Jason Crow is also saying Democrats will do everything they can to remove Trump from office if they get the power to do so.

Blurb:

Democrat-controlled Maryland is set to move forward with a plan to draw out its lone Republican-controlled district, a move that will further increase the likelihood of Democrats retaking control of the U.S. House later this year.

The effort began when Democrat Governor Wes Moore established the Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission in November 2025. Chaired by U.S. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), the five-member panel of Democrat appointees claimed it heard community feedback and reviewed proposals before voting to recommend new boundaries on December 18, 2025.

Blurb:

A new poll on Florida’s gubernatorial race shows Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., ahead of his primary challengers by 30% or more.

The Mason-Dixon poll released on Wednesday showed the South-West Florida congressman counting on the support of 37% of Republican voters. Donalds’ closest opponent, current Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, polled at 7%. His other two opponents, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback, polled in at less than 4%.

“Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds is the only proven conservative fighter who can unite Republicans, deliver on the president’s ‘America First’ agenda, crush the Democrats, and make Florida more affordable,” Ryan Smith, chief strategist of the Byron Donalds for Governor campaign, told The Daily Signal. “Anyone running against Byron is an anti-Trump RINO and will be soundly defeated in the Republican primary.”

Blurb:

Democratic Virginia state Sen. L. Louise Lucas ripped into fellow party Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner over redistricting in the commonwealth, declaring Saturday she didn’t need advice from “a cuck chair in the corner.”

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, redistricting plans have surfaced in both Republican-led and Democrat-led state legislatures as a strategy to achieve a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Virginia Senate Democrats on Friday approved a state constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw the state’s congressional districts mid-decade. Touting the win online, Lucas first posted a picture of a McDonald’s worker asking, “Would you like fries with that?” on the news of the approved amendment.

Blurb:

A new poll reveals the 2026 Senate race in Michigan will likely be a fiercely contested battle, with Republican Mike Rogers holding narrow leads in hypothetical matchups against Democrat candidates.

The poll, “conducted Jan. 2-6 for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV,” matches up Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers against three leading Democrat candidates in a bid for the seat of Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich, who is not seeking another term.

The Rogers campaign declared the poll a win, as spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet wrote in a statement, “poll after poll continues to show that working families are rallying behind Mike Rogers.

 

Blurb:

House Republicans’ largest outside spending groups are leading their Democratic counterparts in fundraising ahead of November’s midterm elections.

The House GOP leadership aligned-Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) and its associated nonprofit, the American Action Network (AAN), reported a $136 million fundraising haul in 2025. Meanwhile, House Democratic groups — House Majority PAC and its sister organization House Majority Forward — raised just $121 million combined in the same time span.

The GOP lead is relatively small, but the Republican groups are touting the fundraising edge, first reported by Punchbowl News, as proof they have the resources to defend the fragile House GOP majority.

“This record-breaking haul of $136 million is a testament to the sustained commitment of our donors and their trust in Speaker Mike Johnson, this Republican leadership team, and our mission,” CLF President Chris Winkelman said in a statement. “Building this historic war chest early means we have a financial head start heading into the midterms. We will defend our majority-making incumbents and push further into Democrat territory.”

Blurb:

Democrat U.S. Senate candidates in Minnesota are facing severe blowback as the state reels from a jaw-dropping $9 billion money laundering scandal that is shaking up the political landscape as the saga continues to unfold.

This staggering Somali-led fraud scheme, uncovered by prosecutors, has siphoned off billions in public funds.

The scandal is now casting a dark shadow over the state’s Democrat leadership as the 2026 U.S. Senate race heats up.

Blurb:

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is raising alarms over President Donald Trump’s aggressive push for mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states, claiming the effort could intensify national divisions and even lead to “political violence.”

Paul’s comments came during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

The senator was pressed on the Indiana State Senate’s recent decision to reject a Trump-backed redistricting proposal.

The president endorsed the mid-cycle map overhaul.

It’s one that analysts say would have added two GOP seats ahead of next year’s midterms.

Blurb:

Heading into the midterm election season, the economy is still the No. 1 issue for voters, including among President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again coalition, a new poll shows.

The poll from NBC News Decision Desk showed that Republicans and MAGA Republicans are slightly shifting their outlook on the economy, becoming more likely to say their personal financial situation is worse off today than it was one year ago. The poll found that 64% of people think the economy is on the “wrong track,” compared to 60% at the beginning of the year.

Out of nine given categories, 27% of the 20,252 people polled between Nov. 20 and Dec. 8 listed the economy as the No. 1 issue that matters most to them, with 44% of survey respondents listing “inflation and the rising cost of living” as the most important economic matter to their family.

Blurb:

A new Emerson College Polling survey has Ohio Democrats riding unexpected momentum heading into the 2026 elections, tightening two major statewide races and signaling trouble for Republicans who once dominated the state.

The poll, released Thursday, shows both the governor’s race and U.S. Senate contest narrowing sharply since August, a shift that lines up with some surveys showing a decline in approval of the GOP among Ohio voters.

Emerson surveyed 850 voters between Dec. 6 and 8, using cellphone voter lists and an online panel. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.3%.

The biggest shake-up comes in the governor’s race. Democrat Amy Acton has surged seven points and now leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 46% to 45%. In August, Ramaswamy held a commanding 49% to 39% advantage. That lead has effectively evaporated.

Blurb:

 

 

The master messenger is at it again, this time handing the GOP the 2026 midterm talking points directly. During a rally Tuesday evening in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, President Trump reminded both Republicans and Democrats of just how savvy a messenger he can be when energizing his base. He crushed former President Joe Biden and his administration for overseeing the runaway inflation we are still battling today. He discussed his efforts to bring higher wage jobs to American workers, not illegal aliens. He dismantled Obamacare, highlighting high costs and the trillions in taxpayer dollars given to insurance companies instead of the American people. President Trump went full MAGA.

Blurb:

Utah Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, has stunned conservatives after he appeared to endorse the presidential prospects of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro,  a rising Democrat star widely expected to run for president in 2028.

Cox joined Shapiro for a joint CNN interview that aired while President Donald Trump was holding an economic rally in Pennsylvania.

Shapiro, who enjoys strong poll numbers in his battleground state, has long been viewed as a likely Democrat contender and was reportedly a finalist to become former Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate before she ultimately chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

During the interview, CNN host Dana Bash directly asked Cox whether Shapiro would make a good president.

“Yeah, I do,” Cox replied immediately.

Blurb:

 

The Indiana House of Representatives passed a controversial bill that would redistrict the state and possibly flip two seats to the Republican column in the midterm elections.

Fifty-seven members voted for the bill, while 41 voted against it. The bill will go to the Indiana Senate, where some Republicans have said they oppose the redistricting effort.

‘Fair maps are essential to protecting Hoosiers’ voices in Washington, and today the House voted to do just that.’

Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun urged the Senate to pass the bill.

“Fair maps are essential to protecting Hoosiers’ voices in Washington, and today the House voted to do just that, delivering a strong congressional map,” Braun said. “I commend Speaker Huston and his caucus for having the courage to protect Hoosier voters. I urge the Senate to move quickly next week and adopt this map so Indiana can move forward with confidence.”

Blurb:

CNN political commentator Scott Jennings had a stern warning for Republican lawmakers after the Republican-dominated Indiana State Senate overwhelmingly voted against a congressional map redraw that would have netted the party two seats in next year’s midterm elections, a move that significantly increases the odds of a Democrat-controlled U.S. House of Representatives in 2026.

The proposed maps would have split the Democratic Party stronghold of Indianapolis four ways, effectively eliminating the districts currently controlled by Democrats to give the GOP a 9-0 sweep when it comes to U.S. House seats. After the Indiana House advanced the motion last week, the proposed map went to the Senate, where it was soundly defeated on Thursday.

The vote was not particularly close, as 21 Republicans voted against the measure while just 19 voted in favor.  President Donald Trump and a number of key allies were furious over the move, leading organizations like Turning Point USA and the president himself to vow primary challenges.

Blurb:

One of the biggest whoppers Democrats told during the Schumer Shutdown was that they were not fighting for taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegals as part of the demands they wanted to be met to end the shutdown.

“Federal law prohibits the use of Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and the Affordable Care Act to provide health insurance in any way, shape, or form to undocumented immigrants—period, full stop. Democrats aren’t trying to change that,” Democrat House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) proclaimed at the time.

Though that is exactly what Jeffries and his fellow Democrats were trying to do, it was clear that the subject of taxpayer funding of illegal immigrant healthcare was a sore spot and for good reason, considering the likelihood that Jeffries knew the longer the shutdown dragged out, the more frustrated the American people would get with Democrats holding up funding for the military and SNAP recipients just to get some assurances on healthcare for illegals.

Blurb:

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito blocked a federal court ruling Friday that struck down Texas’ new congressional map, allowing Republicans to continue using the disputed boundaries while the high court weighs the case.

Alito ordered the League of United Latin American Citizens and other challengers to respond by Monday at 5 p.m. EST, according to the court document. The administrative stay blocks the Nov. 18 order from the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas while the Supreme Court considers the case.

The Supreme Court order states the district court’s ruling “is hereby administratively stayed pending further order of the undersigned or of the Court.” Alito signed the order personally on Nov. 21.

Blurb:

“By design or by default, Judge [Dianna] Gibson has authorized the most partisan and thus the most gerrymandered map,” Senate leader Stuart Adams said.

The Utah state legislature is set to appeal the state’s new congressional map that carves out a congressional seat that will all but certainly give a seat to the Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. The map was brought about after Judge Dianna Gibson ruled in favor of the map that was in place.

The announcement was made on Tuesday. “By design or by default, Judge [Dianna] Gibson has authorized the most partisan and thus the most gerrymandered map in the history of the state of Utah,” Senate President Stuart Adams announced at a press conference.

Blurb:

Iowa Democrat Christina Bohannan is selling herself as a humble, hard-working champion of the middle class who knows what it’s like “to struggle to put food on the table.”

But her real estate holdings and financial disclosures tell a much richer story — one featuring million-dollar homes, a Florida waterfront condo, and a stock portfolio stuffed with Big Tech giants.

“You know, I know what it’s like to work so hard and to, to still struggle to put food on the table,” Bohannan told fairgoers at the Iowa State Fair. She has repeatedly invoked her upbringing in a trailer park and memories of choosing “between putting groceries in the cart and filling prescription drugs.” She even told Iowa Public Radio that “she knows what it’s like to struggle.”