Election Watch

Blurb:

Republicans massively out-fundraised Democrats in 2025, a massive boon to the GOP heading into the midterm election cycle.

According to recent Federal Election Commission reports, the Republican Party has almost $700 million in cash on hand across six different funding groups. The Democrats have $167 million cash on hand, but the Democratic National Committee is in debt.

“The [Republican National Committee] closed out 2025 in a position of real strength, building a serious war chest as we head into the 2026 midterms focused on defending and expanding our Republican majorities,” said Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters.

Blurb:

Every so often there’s a piece of content in The New York Times or a similar publication that’s meant to create suspicion but without saying exactly why, usually for the purpose of politicizing something mundane. The story this week about National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard being on site during an FBI operation in Atlanta is one of those pieces of content, but in this case, the reason for the manufactured suspicion is obvious.

The Times on Monday wrote that it was “unusual” for Gabbard to appear at an FBI field office following the agency’s seizure of 2020 ballots from an election center in the ever-so-seedy Fulton County. You know, the place where election officials just admitted to improperly certifying hundreds of thousands of ballots in violation of the election rules. “[H]er continued presence has raised eyebrows given that her role overseeing the nation’s intelligence agencies does not include on-site involvement in criminal investigative work,” the article, reported by a grand total of three people, said.

Blurb:

The dramatic family story Maryland Gov. Wes Moore often tells on the campaign trail has helped power his rise as a national Democratic figure. But according to reporting by Andrew Kerr of the Washington Free Beacon, the tale does not hold up against historical records.

Moore, widely viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, frequently recounts how his grandfather fled South Carolina as a child in the 1920s after the Ku Klux Klan targeted the family. Moore says his great-grandfather, a Black minister, enraged the Klan with sermons condemning racism, forcing the family to escape Charleston in the dead of night to avoid a lynching before resettling in Jamaica.

It is a gripping narrative Moore has repeated for years, including during his successful 2022 run for governor. He first told the story in a 2014 memoir and has since framed it as a defining example of American injustice and perseverance.

Blurb:

I’ve got bad news for conservative readers: The Democrats have every meaningful advantage for the 2026 midterms. According to the betting markets, there’s nearly an 80% probability the Dems will win control of the House of Representatives.

And honestly? That number is too low. (I’m guessing there’s a percentage of conservative gamblers who’re betting with their hearts, not their heads.)

It’ll probably hit the mid-90s by Sept.

Which means, the GOP would be wise to expedite its legislation ASAP and then pull up the ladder well before the end of the term, because once the Dems control the House, the gig is up. That’s the end of President Donald Trump’s legislative legacy.

And his final two years as president will be spent dodging subpoenas, battling with congressional committees, and being impeached (probably more than once). Get ready for two long years of government shutdowns and grandstanding gridlock.

The Dems aren’t even being coy about what they’re planning. This NBC News story ran yesterday evening:

Facing the threat of being held in contempt of Congress, Bill and Hillary Clinton agreed Tuesday to testify before the House Oversight Committee about convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Democrats now say Republicans have established a precedent when it co

Blurb:

 

Elon Musk is once again opening his checkbook to influence American politics, pouring millions into Republican efforts to hold Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, according to new campaign finance disclosures reported by both Newsmax and Politico, despite flirting with the idea of creating a third party last year. 

Politico reported that Musk “poured $10 million into two major Republican super PACs at the end of last year,” splitting the donations evenly between the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund, “two groups that aim to help the GOP keep control of Congress this year.” The Tesla and SpaceX CEO gave $5 million to each group in December, marking his second round of contributions to both super PACs during the current election cycle.

“It was Musk’s second round of donations to both groups this cycle, having previously given in June,” Politico noted, adding that those earlier donations came “amid his feud with Trump.”

Blurb:

A Virginia judge on Tuesday ruled that a Democrat-led effort to radically redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections is invalid.

The ruling has dealt a major setback to plans that would have dramatically reshaped the state’s House delegation.

Judge Jack Hurley Jr., of the Tazewell County Circuit Court, issued a ruling declaring a proposed constitutional amendment advanced by the Virginia General Assembly to be procedurally invalid under state law.

Blurb:

The Supreme Court last week ordered California Democrats to respond within a week to a Republican-backed request seeking to block the state’s newly drawn congressional maps from being used in the 2026 elections.

The move, issued by Justice Elena Kagan, who is handling the emergency injunction request, caught many court watchers off guard. Given the court’s recent decision to allow Texas Republicans to keep their mid-decade redistricting plan, most expected the justices to let California’s Democrat-drawn map stand without intervention.

California Republicans argue the new maps violate the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution by relying on race, rather than politics, to redraw at least one congressional district.

Blurb:

Alexander Vindman launched a Democratic Senate campaign in Florida on Tuesday, catapulting himself back into the limelight after emerging as a key whistleblower in President Donald Trump’s first-term impeachment.

“The last time you saw me was here, swearing an oath to tell the truth about a president who broke his,” Vindman said in a launch video, referencing clips depicting his congressional testimony during Trump’s impeachment trial. “See, my family came here as refugees to escape tyranny, and I sure as hell wasn’t going to bow down to some wannabe tyrant.”

Blurb:

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was surprised by Republican Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt’s decision to miss a critical vote Thursday while Republicans work to pass their agenda with a razor-thin majority.

Hunt, who is vying in a brutal three-way Texas Senate primary, was absent while House Republicans advanced a rule teeing up votes on four appropriations bills, including a measure funding the Department of Homeland Security. Though House Republicans did not end up needing Hunt’s vote to advance the funding bills, Republican leadership has voiced irritation about the Senate hopeful’s frequent absences while he campaigns ahead of the March 3 primary.

Blurb:

Democrats have every intention of restarting lawfare against President Donald Trump and his allies the very moment he leaves office, and Republicans need to start taking that threat seriously.

At a Thursday hearing of the House Judiciary Committee, where the sole witness was get-Trump lawfare specialist Jack Smith, the former special counsel who brought bogus charges against Trump twice, Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., said the quiet part out loud in an exchange with Smith.

“Those indictments have been dismissed. Can they be re-brought or resurrected after this, after Trump leaves office?” Johnson asked.

Blurb:

A new poll suggests that the coalition that returned President Donald Trump to the White House after a four-year hiatus may be eroding.

These numbers come as Republicans seek to defend their narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections, when replicating Trump’s 2024 support levels from low-propensity voters was always going to be a challenge.

Trump has lost ground with nonwhite and younger voters, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll released on Thursday. His gains with these voters compared to 2020 helped him win the popular vote and defeat former Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris is considering another run for president in 2028, though Trump is subject to term limits.

Blurb:

The Daily Signal’s Virginia Correspondent Joe Thomas is out with a new podcast breaking down Virginia Democrats’ effort to redistrict the commonwealth.

Now that Democrats are fully in control of the commonwealth, they are moving forward with a plan that could add four Democrat seats and ultimately determine the balance of power in Washington after the 2026 midterms.

Thomas called the move, which could change the Virginia congressional delegation from six Democrats and five Republicans to 10 Democrats and just one Republican, “reactionary.”

Blurb:

A new statewide survey of likely Georgia Republican primary voters shows U.S. Rep. Mike Collins out front in a crowded GOP field, with President Donald Trump enjoying sky-high approval among the party faithful.

The poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters, conducted by conservative-leaning Public Opinion Strategies, finds Collins benefiting from strong name recognition. Seventy-one percent of voters say they are familiar with the northeast Georgia congressman, the highest of any candidate tested.

On a hypothetical primary ballot, Collins leads with 32%, well ahead of U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter at 16% and former football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. Roughly one-third of voters remain undecided. When asked to pick a second choice, respondents were scattered, underscoring how fluid the race remains.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA)

Blurb:

 

Democrats, ever desperate for one-party control, filed a lawsuit in October claiming that New York City’s only Republican-held congressional district was unconstitutionally drawn because it allegedly “dilutes black and Latino voting strength.”

The Staten Island plaintiffs, represented by the Washington, D.C.-based Elias Law Group, demanded that the map — which was approved by the Democrat-controlled state legislature and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in 2024 — be redrawn such that it’d be virtually impossible for Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis to defend her district.

Blurb:

Rep. John James, a Michigan Republican running for governor, has launched a new ad tying the fate of Trump’s second term and the America First agenda to James’ home state of Michigan.

On Thursday, James released an ad titled “Impeached,” claiming that Michigan, with its open U.S. Senate seat and four competitive House races, is “ground zero” in the fight to keep Congress under Republican control.

Recent polling indicates that James holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary and a slight edge in the general election in November.

The ad suggests that if Congress falls into the hands of the Democrats after the 2026 midterms, Trump will be “impeached” and his “Cabinet dragged before hearings led by AOC and Rashida Tlaib,” referring to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Tlaib (D-Mich.).

In the ad, James, currently a Michigan congressman who has “backed President Trump every time,” makes the pitch to MAGA Michiganders that his election to be their next governor is vital to protecting Trump and his ability to continue implementing his policies: “If you care about President Trump, you must stand up for John James.”

Blurb:

Republicans are bleeding support among independent voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to new polling.

An Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday found that congressional Democrats have a 22-point advantage over Republicans (50% to 28%) with independent voters. With roughly 90% of likely Republican and Democratic voters planning to support their party’s respective congressional candidates in 2026, according to Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball, independents are likely to have outsized influence over November’s elections.

Blurb:

Yesterday, we shared with you that Colorado Rep. Brittany Pettersen said the Democrats are already laying the groundwork to impeach President Trump if they regain control of the House in November’s midterms. She wasn’t an outlier. Rep. Jason Crow is also saying Democrats will do everything they can to remove Trump from office if they get the power to do so.

Blurb:

Democrat-controlled Maryland is set to move forward with a plan to draw out its lone Republican-controlled district, a move that will further increase the likelihood of Democrats retaking control of the U.S. House later this year.

The effort began when Democrat Governor Wes Moore established the Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission in November 2025. Chaired by U.S. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), the five-member panel of Democrat appointees claimed it heard community feedback and reviewed proposals before voting to recommend new boundaries on December 18, 2025.

Blurb:

A new poll on Florida’s gubernatorial race shows Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., ahead of his primary challengers by 30% or more.

The Mason-Dixon poll released on Wednesday showed the South-West Florida congressman counting on the support of 37% of Republican voters. Donalds’ closest opponent, current Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, polled at 7%. His other two opponents, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback, polled in at less than 4%.

“Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds is the only proven conservative fighter who can unite Republicans, deliver on the president’s ‘America First’ agenda, crush the Democrats, and make Florida more affordable,” Ryan Smith, chief strategist of the Byron Donalds for Governor campaign, told The Daily Signal. “Anyone running against Byron is an anti-Trump RINO and will be soundly defeated in the Republican primary.”

Blurb:

Democratic Virginia state Sen. L. Louise Lucas ripped into fellow party Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner over redistricting in the commonwealth, declaring Saturday she didn’t need advice from “a cuck chair in the corner.”

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, redistricting plans have surfaced in both Republican-led and Democrat-led state legislatures as a strategy to achieve a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Virginia Senate Democrats on Friday approved a state constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw the state’s congressional districts mid-decade. Touting the win online, Lucas first posted a picture of a McDonald’s worker asking, “Would you like fries with that?” on the news of the approved amendment.

Blurb:

A new poll reveals the 2026 Senate race in Michigan will likely be a fiercely contested battle, with Republican Mike Rogers holding narrow leads in hypothetical matchups against Democrat candidates.

The poll, “conducted Jan. 2-6 for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV,” matches up Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers against three leading Democrat candidates in a bid for the seat of Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich, who is not seeking another term.

The Rogers campaign declared the poll a win, as spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet wrote in a statement, “poll after poll continues to show that working families are rallying behind Mike Rogers.

 

Blurb:

House Republicans’ largest outside spending groups are leading their Democratic counterparts in fundraising ahead of November’s midterm elections.

The House GOP leadership aligned-Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) and its associated nonprofit, the American Action Network (AAN), reported a $136 million fundraising haul in 2025. Meanwhile, House Democratic groups — House Majority PAC and its sister organization House Majority Forward — raised just $121 million combined in the same time span.

The GOP lead is relatively small, but the Republican groups are touting the fundraising edge, first reported by Punchbowl News, as proof they have the resources to defend the fragile House GOP majority.

“This record-breaking haul of $136 million is a testament to the sustained commitment of our donors and their trust in Speaker Mike Johnson, this Republican leadership team, and our mission,” CLF President Chris Winkelman said in a statement. “Building this historic war chest early means we have a financial head start heading into the midterms. We will defend our majority-making incumbents and push further into Democrat territory.”

Blurb:

Democrat U.S. Senate candidates in Minnesota are facing severe blowback as the state reels from a jaw-dropping $9 billion money laundering scandal that is shaking up the political landscape as the saga continues to unfold.

This staggering Somali-led fraud scheme, uncovered by prosecutors, has siphoned off billions in public funds.

The scandal is now casting a dark shadow over the state’s Democrat leadership as the 2026 U.S. Senate race heats up.

Blurb:

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is raising alarms over President Donald Trump’s aggressive push for mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states, claiming the effort could intensify national divisions and even lead to “political violence.”

Paul’s comments came during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

The senator was pressed on the Indiana State Senate’s recent decision to reject a Trump-backed redistricting proposal.

The president endorsed the mid-cycle map overhaul.

It’s one that analysts say would have added two GOP seats ahead of next year’s midterms.

Blurb:

Heading into the midterm election season, the economy is still the No. 1 issue for voters, including among President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again coalition, a new poll shows.

The poll from NBC News Decision Desk showed that Republicans and MAGA Republicans are slightly shifting their outlook on the economy, becoming more likely to say their personal financial situation is worse off today than it was one year ago. The poll found that 64% of people think the economy is on the “wrong track,” compared to 60% at the beginning of the year.

Out of nine given categories, 27% of the 20,252 people polled between Nov. 20 and Dec. 8 listed the economy as the No. 1 issue that matters most to them, with 44% of survey respondents listing “inflation and the rising cost of living” as the most important economic matter to their family.

Blurb:

A new Emerson College Polling survey has Ohio Democrats riding unexpected momentum heading into the 2026 elections, tightening two major statewide races and signaling trouble for Republicans who once dominated the state.

The poll, released Thursday, shows both the governor’s race and U.S. Senate contest narrowing sharply since August, a shift that lines up with some surveys showing a decline in approval of the GOP among Ohio voters.

Emerson surveyed 850 voters between Dec. 6 and 8, using cellphone voter lists and an online panel. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.3%.

The biggest shake-up comes in the governor’s race. Democrat Amy Acton has surged seven points and now leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 46% to 45%. In August, Ramaswamy held a commanding 49% to 39% advantage. That lead has effectively evaporated.