Brazil Watch

MIA Monthly – Amos Election

pgnewser October 30, 2026 0

In Issue 2026.30, Amos Elections, we cover Election Predicting, Lula’s Brazil, Brexit Reduxing

Our Situation Report has been replaced in this issue by our 2026 Election Report. We cover the issues, the laws, the races, and offer a prediction on the results.

Our Bellwether Digest covers Non-Citizen Balloting, Vucic’s Fall, Activist Judge Handcuffing

Tools of Engagement include resources to be informed in the news, informed in the elections, and how to build your own search engine.

In our Final Thought, Editor Paul Gordon Collier and Publisher Bill Collier offer their final word on the upcoming election.

I. 2026 Election Report: Pt. 1 – Issues, Election Laws, Ballot Initiatives

II. Bellwether Digest – Global Outlook, Headlines Missed, People Advance

III. Tools of Engagement

IV. Bellwether Report – U.S Politics – World – Culture – Market- Sci-Tech

V. 2026 Election Report: Pt. 2 – House Races – Senate Races – Predictive Analysis

VI. Final Thought – Last Comments on the upcoming 2026 Midterm Election

MIA Monthly 26 10 30 FINAL DRAFT WORD

Non-Citizen Ballot Protection

pgnewser October 30, 2026 0

BELLWETHER DIGEST – WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 30, 2026

By STAFF

This week’s report covers political, world, culture, market, and sci-tech news from October 23-30

This report contains the Global Outlook, Headlines Missed, and People Advance Reports.

For 2026 Election News, read our report on the midterm elections on pg. 2. You can read part two of the report on pg. xx.

TOP NEWS TAGS

  1. 2026 Elections
  2. AI Watch
  3. Progressive State Press
  4. China Watch
  5. Brazil Watch
  6. France Riots
  7. Ukraine War
  8. Israel Watch
  9. Europe Riots
  10. Iran War

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

  1. APPEALS COURT PROTECTS 20,000 NON-CITIZEN CALIFORNIA BALLOTS – A Federal Appeals court ruled 2-1 to deny the Department of Justice’s request to remove 20,000 non-citizen ballots from California’s voter rolls. The court passed on a technicality, claiming it had no power to act until a lower court had ruled. They also claimed, “The United States’s claimed emergency, at least in part, is a self-constructed one.”
  2. NETANYAHU CRIES FOUL AS ELECTION LEAVES NO FINAL WINNER – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to win a majority needed to form a government after the Israeli election, but so did his opponent. Netanyahu beat his opponent 21.4% to 16.2%. Netanyahu is claiming Islamist factions have infiltrated the election process, robbing his coalition of their “rightful” victory.

Golan posted on X, “We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes. We have a responsibility. And we have an opportunity to form a government of change in partnership with Israel’s Arab citizens.” Netanyahu responded, “We must not endanger Israel and establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.”

  1. BOLSONARO LOSES IN “QUESTIONABLE” ELECTION – The Chinese won Brazil’s Presidential election when their candidate, Lula da Silva, won re-election for the third time. He defeated the American candidate, Senator Flavio Bolsanaro, the son of the former President, Jair Messias Bolsanaro. Lula lost in the first round of votes but came back in the run-off to defeat Bolsonaro by a 51-48-point margin.

The controversy with the election began when a Lula-supporting activist judge decided to extend the closing hour of the polls by 2 hours. It is believed this is where Lula “manufactured” the votes he needed to hold on to power. The win by Lula assures China will continue to have a strong presence in South America. It also means Brazilians will face draconian social media censorship laws.

  1. AFTER IRAN REJECTS PEACE TALK OFFER, U.S. THREATENS STRIKES – Vice President JD Vance’s letter to the Iranians offering another round of peace talks was summarily rejected by the Iranian regime. As a result, the U.S. is threatening to resume air strikes against the Islamic Republic. Iran has countered that it would consider peace talks, but only if brokered by Pakistan.

The U.S. has reached out to its Gulf State allies and informed them there may soon be an “intense” war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is not completely opened, and Iran has been able to score hits on tankers still. President Trump once again claimed the war will be over soon, but hinted at a last intense stage.

  1. CHINA LOSES TRILLIONS AS FAITH IN AI FALTERS – The Chinese STAR 50 Index has lost trillions of dollars in value in recent months thanks mostly to lost faith in AI. The total value of AI stocks accounts for 40% of the market. The AI machines being built aren’t making money off their domestic market, a problem the U.S. might be facing soon as well.
  2. ARE THE SAUDIS ATTEMPTING TO BUY THE HOUTHIS OFF? – Saudi Arabia is allegedly working with Iran to broker a deal with the Houthis that would see the Houthis get $1 billion to quit the war. The allegations were released in the Israeli newspaper, Israel Hayom. The Houthis have expanded their attacks on Saudi Arabia, launching six strikes in recent days.

They are also threatening to declare war on Egypt should it aid the Saudis in the war. Their efforts to shut down the Red Sea have not quite materialized, but trade has been slowed, though not significantly.

  1. COMEY GETS NEW CHARGE RELATED TO NY TIMES LEAK – James Comey will face more charges connected to an allegation he “knowingly and willingly” passed sensitive top secret national defense information to the New York Times, a flagship of the progressive state press.

The DOJ stated it filed a “waiverless criminal information to toll the statute of limitations as it relates to allegations concerning former FBI Director Comey. Filing a criminal information to toll the statute of limitations is a widely recognized practice in federal court and has been approved by multiple Circuit Courts of Appeals.”

  1. SWALWELL INVESTIGATION LEADS TO NEW FBI RAID – A raid of a mansion in Southern California is connected to a federal investigation into the potential criminal activity of former congressman Eric Swallwell. He is suspected of having ties to the CCP. He is also suspected of committing sexual assault on women, with one accusing him of rape. It was his rape allegations that led to his resignation, not his ties to the CCP.
  2. CONFUCIUS INSTITUTES DECLARED CCP FRONTS BY U.S. – The U.S. Department of War has declared China’s “cultural outreach” centers in progressive-run U.S. universities security threats.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared, “These Chinese government-backed propaganda cultural programs had infiltrated our nation’s universities in almost every state. Now, thankfully, Congress banned them a few years ago, these Confucius Institutes. But they came back disguised in new forms, just like DEI does. Just call it a different name. Well, the Department of War has taken action to stop this as well.”

HEADLINES MISSED

  1. SERBIA FALLS TO A STUDENT REVOLUTION – Candidates in support of the “Student List” won the majority of seats in Serbia’s election, overthrowing the long-standing power of pro-Russian and Pro-Chinese Prime Minister Aleksander Vucic. The Student List won 52.7% of the vote and 140 of the 250 Parliament seats. The incumbent party, the Serbian Progressive Party, has been in power since 2012.
  2. CHINA WINS IN U.S. COURT – A Federal judge has decided the Pentagon does not have a right to block firms from having defense contracts that lobby for Alibaba. The company rewarded in the ruling is a CCP-controlled and supporting enterprise. This ruling allows the CCP to continue to infiltrate American military procurement infrastructures. They can effectively even “lobby” congress to make it happen.
  3. BREXIT TO BLAME FOR UK UNREST, BURNHAM CLAIMS – The UK’s radical progressive Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, continues to push an anti-Brexit narrative intended to set up a redo election. He hopes to bring the UK back into the EU, and he aims to use the riots and unrest in Britian to stigmatize Brexit. He is now directly accusing Brexit of being the underlying cause of the unrest in the country, not the unfettered immigration of foreigners that hate Britian, nor the criminalization of dissent against it.
  4. U.S. JAPAN MILITARY DRILLS DISRUPTED BY CHINESE AND RUSSIAN SPY PLANES – While the U.S. and Japan were engaged in military drills in the Indo Pacific, China and Russia sent spy planes to disrupt the action. Japanese fighters were scrambled to escort the spy planes out of the region. The drills involved thousands of troops, hundreds of aircraft, and dozens of naval vessels.
  5. 60 CHRISTIANS KILLED IN ETHIOPIA – Islamist assaults on Ethiopian Orthodox Churches have left 60 Christians dead. One attack claimed 14 lives, and another attack 4 days later left 46 dead. Local authorities blamed the Oromo Liberation Army for the slaughter. The terror group has failed to respond to the accusations.

PEOPLE ADVANCE

  1. NO HEARINGS FOR ILLEGALS – The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 10-7 to continue to allow the Federal government to detain illegal aliens without a hearing. The ruling makes it easier to deport illegal aliens, whose deportations are often delayed by lengthy hearing-delay tactics from progressive activist “lawyers.”

The Supreme Court affirmed the lower

  1. DEI DEFEATED DESPITE JUDGE’S AI “RULING” – The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down Judge Henry Wingate’s ruling that held an anti-DEI Mississippi Law was unconstitutional. The judge used AI to create plaintiffs not involved in the case.

In the ruling, the court declared, “Those included mention of plaintiffs and defendants not in the complaint, supposed ‘declarations’ from non-existent or never-present individuals, false quotations purporting to be taken from the text of H.B. 1193, and several erroneous claims that the law had already led to the demise of apparently fictitious programs.”

court. The ruling allows the Trump administration to deport illegal aliens without a hearing.

  1. ALLEGED CLASSIFIED LEAKER ARRESTED – The FBI arrested a former CIA contractor, Ian Brinksman, 42, for allegedly leaking classified information through his Substack blog. An FBI affidavit alleges he published classified information, claiming the “public deserves to know about” it.
  2. ONE MILLION BARRELS OF OIL FROM VENEZUELA – President Trump announced on Truth Social the arrival of 1 million barrels of oil coming from Venezuela at no expense to the taxpayer.

He wrote, “I am traveling to Corpus Christi, Texas to a PACKED Rally, where the United States of America will receive ONE MILLION BARRELS of VENEZUELAN OIL as a result of our Highly Successful Military Operation, followed by the Biggest Oil Deal in the History of the World. Thanks to our renewed relationship with Venezuela, which has turned out to be a truly excellent one, the Oil is being provided to the United States at NO cost to the American Taxpayer.”

Bolsonaro Loses in “Questionable” Election

pgnewser October 30, 2026 0

The Chinese won Brazil’s Presidential election when their candidate, Lula da Silva, won re-election for the third time. He defeated the American candidate, Senator Flavio Bolsanaro, the son of the former President, Jair Messias Bolsanaro. Lula lost in the first round of votes but came back in the run-off to defeat Bolsonaro by a 51-48-point margin.

Bolsonaro is disputing the election. Not wanting to end up like his father, Bolsonaro has fled to America, with the blessings of President Trump. However, the President is reportedly not going to back Bolsonaro’s claim he is the rightful President of Brazil. The U.S. press (the progressive state press) is celebrating the Chinese win because it stymies their own President, Trump.

The controversy with the election began when a Lula-supporting activist judge decided to extend the closing hour of the polls by 2 hours. It is believed this is where Lula “manufactured” the votes he needed to hold on to power. The win by Lula assures China will continue to have a strong presence in South America. It also means Brazilians will face draconian social media censorship laws.

Flavio Bolsonaro Declares Himself Rightful President Of Brazil, Denounces ‘Tyranny’ After Fleeing To US– dailycaller.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Flavio Bolsonaro proclaimed himself the rightful president of Brazil after losing Sunday’s election and fleeing to the United States to dodge a court-ordered travel ban.

Liberal Party Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro reached Miami on Tuesday, having refused to surrender his passports, according to Reuters. He first called himself Brazil’s “elected president” in a letter on X, then deleted it posted another message describing himself as the country’s rightful “leader.” He blamed his loss on an electoral coup by the Supreme Court and Workers’ Party President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Lula won the runoff with 51.79% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, a gap of about 4.43 million ballots, according to Latin Times. The federal electoral court, foreign governments, and Bolsonaro’s own party accepted the outcome, Reuters reported.

“I want to say, not only to my 60 million voters but to the Brazilian people, that I am the leader and that the criminals who stole Brazil’s election are part of a criminal organization that has established a tyranny,” Bolsonaro wrote, according to Reuters.

Brazil’s Leftist President Wins Re-Election After Controversial Last-Minute Order– trendingpoliticsnews.com

pgnewser October 30, 2026 0

Brazil’s Leftist President Wins Re-Election After Controversial Last-Minute Order– trendingpoliticsnews.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s incumbent left-wing president secured a shocking fourth term victory on Sunday, October 25, defeating Liberal Party Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. The election immediately generated controversy due to a controversial judicial order in which a single Brazilian Supreme Court Justice — who previously worked as a personal attorney for Lula — extended voting for two hours after polls were set to close.

With approximately 99.9 percent of polling sections tabulated by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Lula received about 51.77 percent of valid votes (roughly 64.17 million) to Bolsonaro’s 48.23 percent (roughly 59.79 million), a margin of about 4.38 million votes. Abstention declined from roughly 21 percent in the first round to about 19 percent in the second.

The outcome constituted a significant reversal from the opening round. In the October 4 first round, Bolsonaro led with approximately 47 percent to Lula’s 45 percent, ahead by about 2.2 million votes. No candidate since Brazil’s return to direct presidential elections in 1989 had finished second in the first round and won the runoff.

Flavio Bolsonaro’s passports cancelled: Brazil police source– www.channelnewsasia.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Flavio Bolsonaro’s passports cancelled: Brazil police source– www.channelnewsasia.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

BRASILIA: Brazil’s defeated presidential candidate, right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro, has had his passports cancelled, a police source told AFP on Tuesday (Oct 27) on condition of anonymity, amid speculation over his whereabouts.

“Flavio Bolsonaro’s passports have been cancelled,” the source said, adding that “there is no formal record of Flavio Bolsonaro leaving the country.”

Argentina’s security ministry and migration authorities on Tuesday denied local media reports that Bolsonaro had entered the neighbouring country.

Flavio Bolsonaro last spoke publicly on Monday afternoon in a video on social media saying he had been banned from leaving the country and ordered to surrender his passports.

The right-wing senator lost an election bid to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and has refused to concede defeat.

Bolsonaro is granted a visa to enter the U.S. after fleeing Brazil following election loss – The Washington Post– www.washingtonpost.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Bolsonaro is granted a visa to enter the U.S. after fleeing Brazil following election loss – The Washington Post– www.washingtonpost.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

  1. Bolsonaro is granted a visa to enter the U.S. after fleeing Brazil following election loss  The Washington Post
  2. Trump approved allowing Flávio Bolsonaro to enter US after Brazil election loss, source says  CNN
  3. Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil after presidential election loss, reports say  The Guardian
  4. Flavio Bolsonaro flees Brazil after election loss, US says will grant visa  Al Jazeera
  5. Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil for the U.S. After Election Defeat  The New York Times

 

Flávio Bolsonaro heading to Ecuador, Argentina says, after losing Brazil’s presidential election– www.cbsnews.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Flávio Bolsonaro heading to Ecuador, Argentina says, after losing Brazil’s presidential election– www.cbsnews.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and his family were en route to Ecuador after leaving Brazil and stopping off in Argentina, the Argentine National Directorate of Migration said on social media. Bolsonaro lost Brazil’s hotly contested presidential election over the weekend.

Bolsonaro, his wife and two daughters arrived in Argentina Tuesday night through the Tancredo Neves International Bridge border crossing, the directorate said, then boarded a private plane for a flight to Guayaquil, Ecuador.

There was no word on whether they would remain in Ecuador.

Earlier, a senior State Department official told CBS News Bolsonaro and his family would receive U.S. visas.

Bolsonaro, an ally of President Trump, and his family will be allowed entry into the U.S., the official said.

Bolsonaro departed Brazil for the U.S. after being defeated by incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s election, according to multiple Brazilian media reports.

A spokesperson for Bolsonaro did not respond to a request for comment. His campaign manager Rogério Marinho also refused to comment.

Silva said Tuesday it was “shameful” that Bolsonaro had fled Brazil.

Lula secures victory in Brazil, but faces challenge as Bolsonaro contests victory– abcnews.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Lula secures victory in Brazil, but faces challenge as Bolsonaro contests victory– abcnews.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

BRASILIA — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ‘s comeback to win Brazil’s presidential runoff Sunday is already facing its first hurdle as his competitor, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, challenges the results, setting the stage for a possible showdown between the country’s two polarizing political forces.

Lula, who convinced an extra 10.4 million voters to support him in the runoff, is expected to take office on Jan. 5, 2027, for his fourth non-consecutive term. He will serve as a counterweight in a region where leaders are shifting to the right and aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, promised to cozy up to the Trump administration.

At a news conference Sunday, Bolsonaro said he planned to request an annulment of the election following a chaotic extension of voting at the request of both candidates. However, it’s unclear what legal avenue he would have to do that. His father also contested his loss to Lula four years ago and now serves a 27-year prison sentence for a coup attempt.

Early signs from Brazil’s institutions and from leaders across the region, including conservative presidents who oppose Lula, suggest the results will be respected nationally and internationally. Trump has yet to weigh in.

Even with the vote extension, Lula’s win was decisive. The soon-to-be 81-year-old incumbent won more than 64 million votes compared to just under 60 million for Bolsonaro, a margin of nearly 4%.

Flávio Bolsonaro Flees to America After Judge Orders Seizure of His Passports Following Election Defeat › American Greatness– amgreatness.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Flávio Bolsonaro Flees to America After Judge Orders Seizure of His Passports Following Election Defeat › American Greatness– amgreatness.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has reportedly fled to the United States after losing to Socialist President Lula da Silva in the country’s presidential election by 4.4 million votes (51.8 percent to 48.2 percent).

“The plane is in flight, and the final destination would be Florida,” Brazilian online newspaper Metropolis reported Tuesday morning. “The information was confirmed by people close to the parliamentarian’s family.”

Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, initially called for the election to be annulled due to a last-minute two-hour extension of voting hours in a district favorable to Lula. The extension was ordered by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin just three minutes before the scheduled 5 p.m. close purportedly because of transportation issues.

But the challenge was considered unlikely to succeed because only 35,000 votes were cast during the extended hours, and the margin of defeat was substantial, the Guardian reported. Bolsonaro effectively conceded defeat on Monday,  after President Donald Trump indicated he would not intervene, despite calling the vote “rigged.”

When asked for his thoughts on the election, Trump told reporters the vote “looked terrible” and “like another rigged election.”

“I didn’t take sides,” Trump said. “Elections have to be indisputable, and it looked very bad to me.”

Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro Says Court Banned Him From Leaving Country– www.ndtv.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro Says Court Banned Him From Leaving Country– www.ndtv.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Flavio Bolsonaro on Monday said a Supreme Court justice had banned him from leaving Brazil, one day after he lost presidential elections and refused to concede defeat.

“I was served with an order to hand over my passports and I am also banned from leaving the country,” the right-wing senator said, denouncing “a clear attempt to intimidate me.”

Brazil election: How ‘Lula’s Army’ WhatsApp chat helped turn race around– www.bbc.co.uk

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Brazil election: How ‘Lula’s Army’ WhatsApp chat helped turn race around– www.bbc.co.uk
News Source
EXCERPT:

Measuring the electoral impact of online mobilisation, however, is notoriously difficult.

While Lula’s allies credit Lula’s Army with helping fuel the comeback, political scientists caution that it is impossible to determine how many votes, if any, were directly influenced by the WhatsApp operation.

Political scientist Denilde Holzhacker argues that a shift in Lula’s campaign strategy was key to his comeback.

Rather than relying solely on online engagement, she says the Workers’ Party candidate succeeded in connecting digital campaigning with grassroots mobilisation on the ground.

According to Holzhacker, the campaign intensified local efforts and adapted its messaging – linking a Bolsonaro victory with concerns about potential changes to social programmes and the loss of rights.

“It was to Lula’s credit that he recognised his own weakness and completely changed his style,” she says. “And Janones managed to do something that had seemed unthinkable for Brazil’s left – dominate social media.”

Brazil handed Washington a setback it won’t forgive — RT World News– rt-english.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Brazil handed Washington a setback it won’t forgive — RT World News– rt-english.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Lula’s victory will stave off US meddling for now, but Bolsonaro’s camp and foreign pressure remain powerful forces in the struggle ahead

In Brazil, the incumbent left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – known simply as Lula – has decisively won a dramatic run-off election against his challenger from the right – and US favorite – Flavio Bolsonaro. As his de facto sponsor, US President Donald Trump, has signaled that he won’t openly intervene, Bolsonaro, after initially refusing to concede, had to effectively accept the result.

A result that we can call historic even now. In terms of the domestic politics of Brazil, it confirms Lula as a master politician and major statesman. Heading into his fourth term, he has defied his age as well as vicious American attempts to undermine him by economic warfare, sanctions, and social-media foul play.

Lula has also broken the traditional patterns of Brazilian presidential elections. Before he won the second round, he lost the first one; a comeback victory had never happened before and seemed improbable. Now, thanks to a rapid revamping of his campaign, including a belated discovery of social media, and a surge in voter mobilization across the whole country, Lula is the first one to pull it off.

For Brazil, this was a fateful election that could have turned fatal. If Bolsonaro had won, the country would certainly have lost its sovereignty to a policy of enthusiastic subordination to America’s Donroe Doctrine. What has been imposed by violence and treason on Venezuela would have been achieved by elections under pressure in Brazil. It would have joined the recent Latin American shift to the right and deeper submission to Washington.

Trump loses ‘biggest prize’ as far-right leaders topple around the world: expert– www.rawstory.com

pgnewser October 28, 2026 0

Trump loses ‘biggest prize’ as far-right leaders topple around the world: expert– www.rawstory.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

A stunning electoral upset just lost President Donald Trump the “biggest prize” — as his allies abroad topple, a political expert told Raw Story on Monday.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff victory Sunday against Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right son of a former president imprisoned for staging a coup, delivered a stinging blow to Trump’s plans, Berea College Professor Carlos G. Poggio told Raw Story.

“Lula’s victory represents a significant defeat for Donald Trump and [Secretary of State] Marco Rubio,” Poggio, a Brazilian political scientist, said in an email. “Brazil was the biggest prize in the conservative tide sweeping Latin America.”

The defeats for Trump are numerous and multifaceted — they span from the U.S. to Latin America and China and hit his power, and his wallet, Poggio argued.

Bolsonaro, 45, had aligned himself with Trump by pledging to mine the Amazon rainforest for critical mineral deposits, which would ease U.S. dependence on Chinese rare earth exports, limited in 2025 in response to Trump’s tariffs.

Brazil’s Lula wins presidential election, bucking regional shift towards right – National– globalnews.ca

pgnewser October 26, 2026 0

Brazil’s Lula wins presidential election, bucking regional shift towards right – National– globalnews.ca
News Source
EXCERPT:

Brazilian voters have denied Latin America’s resurgent right its ultimate prize, snapping a streak of seven straight conservative presidential victories in 18 months.

The stunning triumph of leftist incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva over Flavio Bolsonaro on Sunday, with 51.8 per cent of the vote to 48.2 per cent, limits U.S. President Donald Trump’s drive to tighten his grip on the Western Hemisphere and cements Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy as a counterweight to Washington. A Bolsonaro victory would have left Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum as the only progressive president among the region’s powerhouses.

For the Trump administration, which has wielded punishing tariffs, severe sanctions and military force to reassert its dominance in the region, Lula’s victory complicates its campaign to enlist Brazil in its military coalition against cartels and to gain preferential access to the country’s critical minerals, analysts say.

Yet both sides see reasons to cooperate. Washington wants access to Brazil’s vast trove of rare earths to reduce its defense industry’s reliance on China. Lula wants foreign investment and tariff relief for Brazilian exporters.

Brazil: Leftist Incumbent Lula Narrowly Defeats Bolsonaro in Presidential Runoff– legalinsurrection.com

pgnewser October 26, 2026 0

Brazil: Leftist Incumbent Lula Narrowly Defeats Bolsonaro in Presidential Runoff– legalinsurrection.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

In Brazil, incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva barely defeated Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in the presidential runoff.

This is Lula’s fourth nonconsecutive term.

This is all weird to me. From Fox News:

Bolsonaro narrowly won the first round on Oct. 4, with 47% of the vote, to Lula’s 45%, but fell short of the 50% majority required to win the election outright.

The victory marks an unprecedented fourth presidential term for Lula, and a remarkable comeback victory. The result is even more surprising given that Bolsonaro had led, albeit by tight margins, in recent polling, and Brazil had recently elected a conservative congress aligned with the Bolsonaro agenda.

Earlier I saw The New York Times gush over Brazil’s secure election system.

Then we learned that Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, who spent a decade as Lula’s defense lawyer, ordered polls to stay open two hours after closing due to “transportation delays and bad weather.”

Lula’s Suprise Win Blocks Trump’s Push for a Far-Right Brazil – Mother Jones– www.motherjones.com

pgnewser October 26, 2026 0

Lula’s Suprise Win Blocks Trump’s Push for a Far-Right Brazil – Mother Jones– www.motherjones.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Two weeks before the second and decisive round of the Brazilian presidential elections in October, US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in Rio de Janeiro for the multi-day celebration of his son Conor’s wedding. The Kennedy scion married singer Giulia Be, a pop star born into a Brazilian right-wing clan, the Marinho family, who are close allies of the disgraced former President Jair Bolsonaro. The nuptials took place at the Our Lady of Mount Carmel Church in historic downtown Rio, which once served the Portuguese royalty that colonized Brazil for more than 300 years.

A week later, supporters of then-presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro carried an inflatable missile with the words “Trump nuke Brazil” in English at a rally in the city of São Paulo. The symbolic image—apparently welcoming a US intervention in the country—may have shocked supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Brazilians who value the country’s sovereignty. But family ties between right-wing clans, inflatable missiles, and requests for American military action against a perceived communist threat only begin to scratch the surface of the far-right’s increasing strength in Brazilian politics and its yearning for a closer connection with the Trump administration.

Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro clash in bitter debate ahead of election runoff– www.france24.com

pgnewser October 19, 2026 0

Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro clash in bitter debate ahead of election runoff– www.france24.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Firing off personal attacks, Brazil‘s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro held an acrimonious first debate Sunday, a week before a tight presidential election runoff.

A chaotic exchange between the two men, who called each other liars on multiple occasions, accusing each other of corruption and dragging up various scandals, encapsulated the tone of a bitter election campaign in the deeply polarised nation.

Bolsonaro, 45, son of the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, secured a shock first-round lead over Lula earlier this month and polls predict a close battle for the runoff on October 25.

The two men sparred over the economy, public security, healthcare, corruption, and Brazil’s ties to the United States.

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Son of Bolsonaro Wins Brazil’s Presidential First Round

pgnewser October 13, 2026 0

While his father sits in prison, Flavio Bolsonaro is beating the man who imprisoned him, Lula da Silver, in the first round of Brazil’s Presidential elections. He will face Lula in the final round. Bolsonaro was not the only member of his family to win that night, as four more family members won public office. Two of Flavio’s sons won seats in Brazil’s lower house.

Bolsonaro clan sweeps Brazil elections as son Flavio heads into presidential runoff – DD News
News Source

EXCERPT:

Banned from public office and under house arrest, former President Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence for a coup plot following his 2022 election defeat. Yet, from confinement, the 71-year-old watched a stunning political resurrection unfold.

His eldest son, 45-year-old lawmaker Flavio Bolsonaro, has scored a massive, upset victory over leftist President Lula da Silva in the first round of the presidential race.

International reactions were immediate. In the U.S., President Donald Trump hailed the result as an “amazing, very, very big victory.” In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted his congratulations on X, saying that he looks forward to “restoring the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil.”

The result instantly makes Flavio Bolsonaro the favourite heading into the decisive runoff on 25th October. For Bolsonaro Senior though, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for a coup plot, the celebrations are just beginning. Four more members of the Bolsonaro family swept into public office. The former President’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and his second son, Carlos, secured seats in the upper House of Brazil’s parliament. His youngest son, Jair Renan, and his brother, Renato, took seats in the lower House. Analysts say that in Brazilian history, no political clan has ever managed to elect so many members all at once.

That’s not all. Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party completely redrew the map of Brazil’s parliament, emerging as the largest single-party representation in both Houses. In the 81-seat Senate, the party nearly doubled its footprint — surging from 15 to 28 seats. This marks the strongest performance by any single party since Brazil returned to democracy and enacted its Constitution in the late 1980s. In the lower House, they climbed to 121 seats. Combined with allied centre-to-right blocs, Conservatives now hold a crushing working majority of nearly 250 seats in the lower House and over 30 in the upper House.

Most importantly for Bolsonaro Senior, this legislative fortress could secure him much-needed amnesty. An allied Parliament gives Flavio Bolsonaro the power to erase his father’s legal woes. Flavio’s ultimate campaign promise has been to walk up the ramp of the Presidential compound next year shoulder-to-shoulder with his father. And an amnesty for Bolsonaro Senior could become a reality even sooner if the current Parliament decides to curry favour with the incoming Government. The Senate’s pro-Bolsonaro bloc is even creeping close to the 54-vote threshold required to impeach the very Supreme Court justices who convicted the far-right patriarch.

Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro wins third-place candidate’s support against Lula– www.france24.com

pgnewser October 12, 2026 0

Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro wins third-place candidate’s support against Lula– www.france24.com
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EXCERPT:

Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro on Thursday gained the support of Augusto Cury, the third-place candidate in Brazil‘s presidential election, bolstering his chances against incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

“My support is not a blank check,” Cury said in a statement, after winning nearly three percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round of voting, compared to Bolsonaro’s 47 percent and Lula’s 45 percent.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest for plotting a coup after losing Brazil’s last election in 2022.

Prior to the announcement, the younger Bolsonaro was leading in polls on Thursday, which gave the senator 52 percent compared to Lula’s 48 percent, according to the Datafolha institute.

Read moreThousands protest Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, fearing far-right return

Lula, 81, downplayed the polls as he sought to secure a fourth term.

“I don’t assess polls, I don’t work like that. I work knowing that I need to have more votes than Flavio to win the election. I have 17 days to do that,” he said at a press conference Thursday.

While Bolsonaro is hoping to bank on his allegiances in the final stretch of the campaign, Lula has been strengthening his presence on social media, where the right has an upper hand.

Thousands of people demonstrated on Thursday in Sao Paulo and other cities against the return of the far right to power in Brazil, a day after a similar march in Rio de Janeiro.

Renan Santos, the fourth most popular candidate with 2.6 million votes, has refused to support either leading candidate.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

 

A crisis is shaking Brazil’s Supreme Court. Here’s what to know– abcnews.com

pgnewser September 15, 2026 0

A crisis is shaking Brazil’s Supreme Court. Here’s what to know– abcnews.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s Supreme Court is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis. Sessions are being canceled. Justices are overruling one another’s decisions. And suspicions of graft, political bias and police interference loom over several of its members ahead of the country’s presidential election in October.

The justices at the heart of the crisis are perceived as being at opposing ends of Brazil’s polarized political spectrum. Next month, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to face off with Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in what is likely to be a close election, as it was four years ago.

The court is set to meet Tuesday to discuss whether one of the justices should be investigated for corruption.

Here’s what to know.

The chaos gripping the court stems from the collapse of Banco Master, a mid-sized bank worth up to $16 billion in assets, which was shut down last November after a sprawling investigation into a fraud scheme involving billions of reais. Several top politicians and members of the judiciary were linked to it.