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Several key German industry groups and energy analysts are warning that Germany could face severe gas supply issues, and potentially entirely deplete its storage, if an exceptionally cold winter occurs. Of course, predictions of this sort have been made off and on in recent years. Germany has never actually run out of gas before. The question is now how alarmist these warnings are and how realistic an actual gas and energy shortage is this time around.

Currently, the government argues there will be no gas shortage. However, storage operators, energy executives and some economists argue that a mild winter should be manageable and a brutally cold one could get tight enough to force industry to cut production and send prices soaring.

One of the most dire warnings comes from Markus Krebber, chief executive of RWE, Germany’s largest power producer.

“If we get a mild winter, everything will be fine,” he told Focus in an interview. “If the winter is hard, there can be significantly higher prices. And it can get tight.”

Krebber said Germany is entering the season “with the lowest gas storage levels of the past 20 years” – lower even than in 2022, when Russian pipeline flows collapsed. “That works if we have a normal winter. If we get a particularly cold winter, it can get scarce.”

He has also warned that if Germany does not add more power supply, “there will be distribution battles for electricity” among industry, data centers and the electrification of heat and transport.

The data supports Krebber’s concerns. The German gas storage association (INES) warns that Germany entered September at its lowest storage levels in 15 years, at around 53 to 56 percent. INES models show that if refills remain sluggish and if Germany experiences an extremely cold winter, similar to the weather of 2010, storage reserves could be exhausted as early as January or February, potentially leaving daily supply shortfalls of up to 25 percent.

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