Tariffs

Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say– www.cnbc.com
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President Donald Trump says that tariffs will make the U.S. “rich.” But those riches will likely be far less than the White House expects, economists said.

The ultimate sum could have big ramifications for the U.S. economy, the nation’s debt and legislative negotiations over a tax-cut package, economists said.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday estimated tariffs would raise about $600 billion a year and $6 trillion over a decade. Auto tariffs would add another $100 billion a year, he said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Navarro made the projection as the U.S. plans to announce more tariffs against U.S. trading partners on Wednesday.

Economists expect the Trump administration’s tariff policy would generate a much lower amount of revenue than Navarro claims. Some project the total revenue would be less than half.

Roughly $600 billion to $700 billion a year “is not even in the realm of possibility,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “If you get to $100 billion to $200 billion, you’ll be pretty lucky.”

Trump set to unleash ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs– www.channelnewsasia.com
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“COULDN’T CARE LESS”

Major economies including the European Union and Canada have vowed retaliation.

“We are going to be very deliberate in terms of the measures we take, to fight for Canada,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Tuesday.

The European Union, which Trump has accused of trying to “screw” the United States, said Tuesday it still hoped to negotiate a solution – but that “all instruments are on the table” to retaliate.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Trump on “productive negotiations” towards a trade deal between the US and the United Kingdom. Vietnam said on Tuesday that it would slash duties on a range of goods to appease Trump.

China ties U.S. talks to tariff removal as stalemate deepens– fortune.com
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China’s top diplomat called on the U.S. to remove tariffs it imposed on Chinese goods for Beijing’s alleged role in America’s fentanyl crisis before holding any talks on the matter, deepening a stalemate weighing on trade ties between the world’s two largest economies.

“If the U.S. side really wants to solve the fentanyl problem, then it should cancel the unjustified tariff increase and engage in equal consultation with the Chinese side,” Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said in an interview with Russian state-run news service RIA Novosti on Tuesday.

Wang’s demand came over a week after U.S. President Donald Trump’s ally Steve Daines met with top Chinese officials and asked Beijing to stop the flow of the drug’s ingredients into the US as a condition for talks. The opposing requests dim the prospect of high-level talks to ease tensions a day before the US president is set to announce his so-called reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners.

Israel Says It Will Lift All Tariffs on U.S. Goods – PJ Media– pjmedia.com
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Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced and signed a plan to eliminate any remaining tariffs targeting U.S. imports. The move came in advance of Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that a new schedule of duties would be imposed on foreign products.

Israel and the U.S. have had a free trade agreement since 1985 that excludes about 98% of American products from Israeli tariffs. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be trying to get out in front of any possible announcement on tariffs on Israel from the White House.

“Today we canceled all of the customs duties levied on products from the U.S., Israel’s largest trading partner,” Netanyahu said in a post on X. “Canceling the customs duties on American goods is an additional step in the policy that my government has led for a decade in opening up the market to competition.”

The lifting of tariffs on U.S. goods still needs approval of the Knesset, where it’s expected to pass.

New York Times:

Total U.S. trade with Israel amounted to an estimated $37 billion in 2024, and the U.S. bilateral deficit stood at $7.4 billion, an 8.6 percent increase over the previous year, according to U.S. trade data. Israeli import taxes on U.S. goods amount to $11.3 million annually, with most levied on food, according to Israel’s finance ministry.

Israel isn’t the only nation trying to forestall Trump’s action on tariffs directed against it. Previously, Mexico sent cartel leaders across the border to stand trial in the U.S. It also sent troops to the border to break up fentanyl rings. Other responses weren’t very friendly.

 

Canada, the European Union, and China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods even before Trump’s official announcement. Unless Trump withdraws or modifies his threats of high tariffs, prices of many consumer goods will rise.

Smotrich is calculating that Trump will reciprocate and lower trade barriers to Israeli goods.

Smotrich’s initiative will still have to be approved by the Israeli Knesset, where agricultural interests enjoy significant influence. There will be a rearguard action in the effort to defend the protectionist schemes from which Israeli farmers benefit. But while the Smotrich plan is not a done deal, Israel’s vital security interests depend so heavily on American support that Israeli domestic interests may have to take a back seat to its near-term foreign policy objectives.

If Trump’s true objective is to compel America’s trading partners to drop their tariffs, to which he would respond by lowering America’s trade barriers, Israel’s maneuver should compel the administration to make some concessions. The American trade balance with Israel isn’t enormous, but it’s not nothing, either. The U.S. imports Israeli commodities like stone, metals, and glass, but it also takes in finished Israeli products like industrial machinery, chemicals, plastics, and rubber.

 

The tariffs are a calculated gamble by Trump, hoping to jump-start U.S. exports in a less restrictive, more competitive international trade atmosphere. If it works, it will revolutionize the American economy. If it doesn’t, we may be paying a lot more for everything we buy from overseas.

 

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President Trump GOES OFF as Four Senate Republicans Reportedly Plan to Defy Him and Vote for Democrat Measure to Sabotage His Canadian Tariff Policy | The Gateway Pundit– www.thegatewaypundit.com
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President Trump is livid after learning that four Senate Republicans are reportedly prepared to vote to sabotage his tariff policy on Canada.

As Fox News reported, leftist Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) has sponsored a resolution joint resolution that would terminate the national emergency Trump declared regarding illicit drugs and Canada. Trump has argued tariffs are necessary not just to curb the drug flow but also to rebalance an unfair trading relationship between the two countries.

The Senate is scheduled to vote on Kaine’s resolution this afternoon. While passage would not mean the tariffs evaporate, considering the House is unlikely to ever vote on the measure, voting against Canadian tariffs would hand the Democrats a powerful talking point and humiliate Trump in the process.

To add insult to injury, the vote is taking place on what Trump has declared “Liberation Day,” where he is set to unleash new reciprocal tariffs to bring back American jobs.

Karoline Leavitt Brings The Receipts, Exposes Allies’ Sky-High Tariffs On U.S. Goods– trendingpoliticsnews.com
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On the eve of President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated “Liberation Day,” the date when he is expected to launch a flurry of new tariffs intended to level the trade U.S. deficit with foreign nations, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back aggressively on media claims that they will only lead to consumer pain and higher prices.

Waving the receipts, Leavitt spoke in depth about some of the most egregious examples of U.S. goods being taxed at a higher rate by other countries. She cited a 700% markup on rice being imported to Japan and a 300% tariff in Canada on American butter and cheese.

“This makes it virtually impossible for American products to be imported into these markets, and it has put a lot of Americans out of business and out of work over the past several decades,” she declared.

One Washington Post headline on Tuesday — “Trump aides draft tariff plans as some experts warn of economic damage” — summed up the narrative that outlets are spinning ahead of President Trump’s economic upheaval. Most goods being imported into the U.S. will face a 20% tariff, according to details about the plans shared by sources.

The outlet writes that the tariffs, if enacted, “would almost immediately” cause Trump’s economy to “tumble into a recession that would last for more than a year,” citing an economist at Moody’s who called the outcome a worst-case scenario.

White House considering roughly 20% tariff on most imports, report says– www.cnbc.com
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US President Donald Trump, alongside Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent (L) and Secretary of Commerce nominee Howard Lutnick (R), signs an executive order to create a US sovereign wealth fund, in the Oval Office of the White House on February 3, 2025, in Washington, DC.

Jim Watson | Afp | Getty Images

White House aides have drafted a proposal that would levy tariffs of roughly 20% on most imports, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.

The report cited three people familiar with the matter. It also said White House advisors cautioned that several options are still on the table, meaning the 20% tariffs may not come to pass. Another plan being considered is the country-by-country “reciprocal” approach, according to the Post.

The report comes a day before April 2, when President Donald Trump is set to announce his larger plans for global trade. The date has loomed over Wall Street, where stocks have been struggling in part due to uncertainty around rapidly changing global trade policy.

Starmer dismisses claims he’s been ‘played’ by Trump, and says future trade deal could lessen impact of tariffs – UK politics live | Politics– www.theguardian.com
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Keir Starmer has dismissed claims that he has been “played” by President Trump over tariffs.

In an interview with Sky News this morning, echoing what Jonathan Reynolds said in his morning interview round (see 8.58am), Starmer said that a future trade deal with the US might lead to the UK getting some exemptions from the tariffs coming tomorrow. He said:

We are of course negotiating an economic deal which will, I hope … mitigate the tariffs.

Asked if he had been “played” by US President Donald Trump, Starmer replied:

The US is our closest ally. Our defence, our security, our intelligence are bound up in a way that no two other countries are.

So it’s obviously in our national interest to have a close working relationship with the US, which we’ve had for decades, and I want to ensure we have for decades to come.

He said talks on an economic deal would normally take “months or years” but “in a matter of weeks we have got well advanced in those discussions”.

Starmer also confirmed that it was likely the UK would be affected by the tariffs being announced tomorrow.

We are obviously working with the sectors most impacted at pace on that.

Nobody wants to see a trade war but I have to act in the national interests.

Trump says reciprocal tariffs will target all countries– www.channelnewsasia.com
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ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE: US President Donald Trump said on Sunday (Mar 30) reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce this week will include all nations, not just a smaller group of 10 to 15 countries with the biggest trade imbalances.

Trump has promised to unveil a massive tariff plan on Wednesday, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day”. He has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, along with increased tariffs on all goods from China.

“You’d start with all countries,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One. “Essentially all of the countries that we’re talking about.”

White House economics adviser Kevin Hassett recently told Fox Business that the administration’s tariffs focus would be on 10 to 15 countries with the worst trade imbalances, though he did not list them.

Trump Fuels Blue Wave By Planning To Hit Americans With Biggest Peacetime Tax Increase In History– www.politicususa.com
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Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro said, according to an X post from Jeff Stein of The Washington Post that Trump is planning on imposing $600 billion worth of tariffs per year for ten years:

White House aide Peter Navarro today: Trump’s tariffs will raise $600 billion per year, or $6 trillion over a 10 year period Seems to reflect our reporting that Trump wants to go absolutely enormous on the tariffs, regardless of short-term economic consequences

Video of Navarro:

To put this into context, Trump’s proposed tariffs would be 2.2% of GDP.

Here is a chart from The Tax Foundation of the largest tax increases as a percentage of GDP in US history:

 

Trump’s Tariffs Leave Automakers With Tough, Expensive Choices– www.nytimes.com
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Automakers can respond to President Trump’s new 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and parts in several ways. But all of them cost money and will lead to higher car prices, analysts say.

Manufacturers can try to move production from countries like Mexico to the United States. They can try to increase the number of cars they already make here. They can stop selling imported models, especially ones that are less profitable.

But whatever carmakers decide, car buyers can expect to pay more for new and used vehicles. Estimates vary widely and depend on the model, but the increase could range from around $3,000 for a car made in the United States to well over $10,000 for imported models.

Those figures do not take into account additional tariffs that Mr. Trump said he would announce next week to punish countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. He has also said he would increase tariffs further if trading partners like Canada and the European Union raise tariffs in response to his auto tariffs, leading to an escalating tit-for-tat trade war.

“It’s going to be disruptive and expensive for American consumers for several years,” said Michael Cusumano, professor of management at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

Trump’s Auto Tariffs Just Got a Huge Endorsement – PJ Media– pjmedia.com
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United Auto Workers (UAW) President Shawn Fain, who backed Kamala Harris in last year’s election, just delivered the most significant endorsement yet of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign-made automobiles. Defying the left’s narrative, Fain called the tariffs a necessary tool to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

Speaking on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Fain agreed with Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro’s assessment that American auto plants are operating at only 60% capacity, which leaves plenty of room to ramp up production domestically.

“He’s spot on,” Fain said, citing the example of Stellantis, which recently laid off 2,000 workers in Warren, Mich., after shifting Ram truck production to Mexico. “They could shift that work back in very short order and be producing Ram trucks right back there and put those people back to work.”

China Deserves the Trump Tariffs– www.dailysignal.com
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This January, when President Joe Biden was serving his last weeks in office and turning over the presidency to Donald Trump, the United States ran a $31.7 billion trade deficit with China.

That was the largest trade deficit the United States ran that month with any nation—and it continued a long-standing pattern.

In 2024, according to data published by the Census Bureau, America’s annual trade deficit with China was $295.402 billion. That was not only the largest trade deficit the United States ran with any country, it was also larger than the trade deficit the United States ran with the entire European Union ($235.571 billion).

In 2023, the United States ran a $279.107 billion trade deficit with China. In 2022, it was $382.133 billion; in 2021, it was $352.806 billion; in 2020, it was $310.263 billion; and in 2019, it was $344.312 billion.

US says ready to confer with China, Canada on WTO disputes – MSN
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 The U.S. mission told China and Canada it was ready to confer with its officials in Geneva after those two countries filed trade disputes in response to new tariffs, World Trade Organization documents showed on Tuesday.

Canada requested consultations – the first step in a WTO trade dispute – earlier this month in response to “unjustified tariffs” imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month.

Trump doubles down on tariffs as stocks sink: ‘not going to bend’– www.cnbc.com
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President Donald Trump on Thursday doubled down on his escalating tariff plans, even as his economic agenda continued to rattle investors and contribute to a weekslong stock market sell-off.

“I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said when asked about his tariff plans during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Trump specifically said he would not change his mind about enacting sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on other countries that put up trade barriers to U.S. goods. The White House has said those tariffs are set to take effect April 2.

Trump’s comments came as major stock indexes continued to tumble Thursday, with the S&P 500 falling 10% from its recent highs and entering correction territory.

Canada Launches WTO Complaint On US Steel, Aluminium Tariffs– www.ndtv.com
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Canada launched a complaint with the World Trade Organization on Thursday over US President Donald Trump’s across-the-board imposition of 25-percent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

The steep levies, which came into force on Wednesday, contained no exemptions despite countries’ efforts to avert them.

“Canada has requested WTO dispute consultations with the United States regarding the imposition by the United States of import duties on certain steel and aluminium products from Canada,” the WTO said.

“Canada claims that the measures, which terminate Canada’s exemption from additional duties on certain steel and aluminium products and increase duties on aluminium articles, and which took effect on March 12, are inconsistent with US obligations,” the global trade body said.

‘Wave of nationalism’: Trump tariffs are good politics in Canada and Mexico – USA TODAY
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Approval ratings for Canadian and Mexican leaders are skyrocketing amid popular outrage in those countries over President Donald Trump’s tariff threats − as his own approval ratings have slipped among Americans.

As Trump is poised to slap steep tariffs on America’s northern and southern neighbors − and has floated swallowing up Canada as the “51st state” − leaders in Mexico and Canada are defiant.

On Tuesday, Trump said he would double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% after Ontario announced a 25% surcharge on the Canadian province’s electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. Ontario backed down.

Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on French Champagne and other EU spirits– www.cnbc.com
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U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to put a 200% tariff on alcohol from France and other European nations in the latest escalation of global trade tensions.

The U.S. tariff comes after the European Union moved to reinstate an import tax on American whiskey.

“The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Donald Trump’s tariffs hurting US business, Republican lawmakers warn – US politics live | Donald Trump– www.theguardian.com
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US president Donald Trump has not treated Greenlanders with respect since expressing his renewed interest in acquiring the vast, mineral-rich Arctic island, Greenland’s prime minister was quoted on Monday as saying.

Trump reiterated his interest in acquiring the island during his address to Congress last Tuesday, painting a picture of prosperity and safety for the “incredible people” of Greenland, an autonomous territory of the kingdom of Denmark, Reuters reported.

Trump reaffirmed that message in a Truth Social post early on Monday, writing: “We will continue to keep you safe, as we have since World War II. We are ready to invest billions of dollars to create new jobs and make you rich.”

Greenland’s prime minister Mute Egede told Danish public broadcaster DR in an interview aired on Monday: “We deserve to be treated with respect, and I don’t think the US president has done that recently since he took office.”

“I think that the recent things the American president has been doing means that people don’t want to get as close to (the US) as they might have wanted in the past,” he added.

“We need to draw a line in the sand and put more effort into (cultivating relations with) the countries that show us respect for the future we want to build,” said Egede, in comments aired a day before Greenland holds a general election.

Trump dodges recession talk as global markets plunge– www.dailykos.com
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 President Donald Trump has refused to rule out that his economic policies could trigger a recession and pushed for a “period of transition” that global markets have already responded to negatively.

In an interview that aired on Sunday, with Fox Business conspiracy theorist Maria Bartiromo, Trump was asked if he expected a recession.

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America,” Trump said.

Trump’s statement is false. He has repeatedly throughout his political career predicted economic calamity, usually in the context of attacks against his Democratic rivals like former President Joe Biden and Sec. Hillary Clinton.

Ecuador announces 27% tariffs on Mexican goods – WTHITV.com
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Ecuador will apply a 27% tariff on Mexican goods to “ensure fair treatment” of Ecuadorian producers, President Daniel Noboa said on Monday.

In a post on X, Noboa said he is open to signing a free trade deal with Mexico, but “not when there is abuse,” though did not elaborate. The president said that until a free trade deal is struck, a 27% tariff will apply to goods imported from Mexico.

Ecuador imported $541 million worth of goods from Mexico in 2023, Mexican government data shows. The biggest single import was medication, representing 12.6% of the goods sold from Mexico to Ecuador that year.