Midterm Elections

Blurb:

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is leading the tightly contested Texas Democratic Party Senate primary by 12 points, according to a new poll.

The shock lead was revealed in a survey from the University of Texas/Texas Politics.

The survey of likely Democrat primary voters shows Crockett with 56 percent support.

Meanwhile, state Rep. James Talarico trails at 44 percent.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the Democrat subset.

Blurb:

If voter ID requirements truly threaten civil rights, it follows that many other civil rights are also threatened. Identification is needed throughout American society, including for transportation, accommodation, and housing — historical battlegrounds for civil rights.

The SAVE America Act would require documented proof of citizenship for voter registration and photo identification for voting in federal elections.  President Trump and Republicans support the legislation, and Americans overwhelmingly support voter ID, which is at the heart of the measure.  Democrats, on the other hand, overwhelmingly oppose the SAVE America Act and, by implication, the election integrity requirements it would implement.

Blurb:

“Anything you can do, I can do better,” the famous duet from the musical “Annie Get Your Gun,” comes to mind as Republicans in blue states watch their red congressional districts disappear because Democrats turned the tables on President Donald Trump’s plan to push mid-decade redistricting to make it easier for the GOP to hold the House majority. Once Republican states decided to employ this strategy, Democrats would have been derelict not to do the same.

House Republicans leaders are beginning to realize that their chances of midterm victory may shrink because this Pandora’s Box was opened. It’s not just that blue states might create more safe seats than red states might. The debate has energized the Democrat base and allowed their big money donors to argue to the public that this is just another “authoritarian” attempt by Trump to rig the system.

Blurb:

High Democratic turnout in Texas’s Senate primary is driving record early voting numbers, giving hope to Democrats in the reliably red state.

Though primary turnout is usually lower in nonpresidential election years, the 2026 primary has drawn unusually close attention, largely due to the race between state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). In the first seven days of primary voting, a record 1,259,356 votes were cast — 665,664 for Democrats and 593,692 for Republicans, according to unofficial data from the Texas secretary of state, obtained by the Texas Tribune.

Blurb:

 

The Supreme Court’s tariff decision left the door wide open for Democrats to hammer President Donald Trump for violating the law. This time, they’re not taking the bait.

Instead, Democratic campaigns are leaning into an argument they have been making for months: Trump’s tariffs are coming out of voters’ pockets. Some Democrats can’t help but hit the tariffs as “unlawful,” but they’re pivoting quickly back to affordability.

Blurb:

Occasional California Governor Gavin Newsom, who keeps turning up anywhere but California, has continued his highly calculated descent into vulgar and insulting behavior this week. The performance still has the awkwardness of the first week of acting school. It’s like watching a character play a character, many times removed from an identifiable real person. Whatever he’s doing, he’s definitely pretending.

If you’ve missed it, Newsom is back to doing subtext-heavy locker room kneepad jokes like the one he did in Davos, and he’s bragging to audiences that he’s stupid like them, “a 960 SAT guy.” He’s playing a towel-snapper, a mean jock, not above hard words or a fist fight. His relentlessly horrible director of communications got in on the act, responding to questions from a journalist like this:

Blurb:

Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is facing steep odds in his upcoming GOP primary as fallout continues from a sex scandal involving a former aide who died by suicide last year.

Gonzales, 45, a married father of six and Navy veteran, had an affair with his former district director, Regina Ann “Regi” Santos-Aviles, 35. Santos-Aviles self-immolated in the garden of her Texas Hill Country home in September.

A former Gonzales staffer told the San Antonio Express-News that the congressman failed to act after being warned about Santos-Aviles’ declining mental health. The report said Santos-Aviles’ husband had learned of the affair and that she became depressed.

Blurb:

A narrative of a looming “blue wave” just hit a wall — and it came from inside CNN.

During a segment breaking down the 2026 gubernatorial map, CNN data analyst Harry Enten delivered a “wake-up call for Democrats,” pointing to race ratings that currently tilt in Republicans’ favor across the country.

“I think electoral races nationwide should stand as a wake-up call for Democrats,” Enten said. “A wake-up call for Democrats.”

Blurb:

 

Independent journalists from Muckraker released footage Tuesday showing a New York City Board of Elections employee giving a registration form to someone claiming non-citizen status, noting the office accepts any submission without reporting issues. The worker acknowledged occasional non-citizen attempts but said his role is just to collect and forward forms, which later face database checks. Critics highlighted it as a vulnerability, while studies show non-citizen voting remains rare, fueling partisan divides over stricter proof-of-citizenship laws like the SAVE Act ahead of 2026 midterms.

Blurb:

In a notable shift in Nevada’s electoral landscape, the Republican Party has achieved a slim lead in active voter registrations over Democrats, marking the first lead for the party since 2007.

As of February 2026, Republicans hold 596,356 active registrations, compared to Democrats’ 593,740, giving the GOP a lead of 2,616 voters. Nonpartisan voters, however, remain the largest group, with 799,056 registrations, accounting for approximately 37.5 percent of the total 2,128,758 active voters in the state.

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Increasingly violent threats toward and harassment of public officials — from county clerks up to the president — are driving more and more of those figures out of their jobs, a particular concern among local election officials, who have struggled with attrition for years.

In the years since the 2020 election, roughly 50 percent of top local election officials across 11 western states have left their jobs since November 2020, according to a new report from Issue One, a bipartisan organization that tracks election issues and supports campaign finance reforms.

The election adminis

Blurb:

Republicans massively out-fundraised Democrats in 2025, a massive boon to the GOP heading into the midterm election cycle.

According to recent Federal Election Commission reports, the Republican Party has almost $700 million in cash on hand across six different funding groups. The Democrats have $167 million cash on hand, but the Democratic National Committee is in debt.

“The [Republican National Committee] closed out 2025 in a position of real strength, building a serious war chest as we head into the 2026 midterms focused on defending and expanding our Republican majorities,” said Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters.

Blurb:

Every so often there’s a piece of content in The New York Times or a similar publication that’s meant to create suspicion but without saying exactly why, usually for the purpose of politicizing something mundane. The story this week about National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard being on site during an FBI operation in Atlanta is one of those pieces of content, but in this case, the reason for the manufactured suspicion is obvious.

The Times on Monday wrote that it was “unusual” for Gabbard to appear at an FBI field office following the agency’s seizure of 2020 ballots from an election center in the ever-so-seedy Fulton County. You know, the place where election officials just admitted to improperly certifying hundreds of thousands of ballots in violation of the election rules. “[H]er continued presence has raised eyebrows given that her role overseeing the nation’s intelligence agencies does not include on-site involvement in criminal investigative work,” the article, reported by a grand total of three people, said.

Blurb:

The dramatic family story Maryland Gov. Wes Moore often tells on the campaign trail has helped power his rise as a national Democratic figure. But according to reporting by Andrew Kerr of the Washington Free Beacon, the tale does not hold up against historical records.

Moore, widely viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, frequently recounts how his grandfather fled South Carolina as a child in the 1920s after the Ku Klux Klan targeted the family. Moore says his great-grandfather, a Black minister, enraged the Klan with sermons condemning racism, forcing the family to escape Charleston in the dead of night to avoid a lynching before resettling in Jamaica.

It is a gripping narrative Moore has repeated for years, including during his successful 2022 run for governor. He first told the story in a 2014 memoir and has since framed it as a defining example of American injustice and perseverance.

Blurb:

I’ve got bad news for conservative readers: The Democrats have every meaningful advantage for the 2026 midterms. According to the betting markets, there’s nearly an 80% probability the Dems will win control of the House of Representatives.

And honestly? That number is too low. (I’m guessing there’s a percentage of conservative gamblers who’re betting with their hearts, not their heads.)

It’ll probably hit the mid-90s by Sept.

Which means, the GOP would be wise to expedite its legislation ASAP and then pull up the ladder well before the end of the term, because once the Dems control the House, the gig is up. That’s the end of President Donald Trump’s legislative legacy.

And his final two years as president will be spent dodging subpoenas, battling with congressional committees, and being impeached (probably more than once). Get ready for two long years of government shutdowns and grandstanding gridlock.

The Dems aren’t even being coy about what they’re planning. This NBC News story ran yesterday evening:

Facing the threat of being held in contempt of Congress, Bill and Hillary Clinton agreed Tuesday to testify before the House Oversight Committee about convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Democrats now say Republicans have established a precedent when it co

Blurb:

 

Elon Musk is once again opening his checkbook to influence American politics, pouring millions into Republican efforts to hold Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, according to new campaign finance disclosures reported by both Newsmax and Politico, despite flirting with the idea of creating a third party last year. 

Politico reported that Musk “poured $10 million into two major Republican super PACs at the end of last year,” splitting the donations evenly between the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund, “two groups that aim to help the GOP keep control of Congress this year.” The Tesla and SpaceX CEO gave $5 million to each group in December, marking his second round of contributions to both super PACs during the current election cycle.

“It was Musk’s second round of donations to both groups this cycle, having previously given in June,” Politico noted, adding that those earlier donations came “amid his feud with Trump.”

Blurb:

As the crucial mid-term elections loom, the Republican Party might break precedent and hold a party convention.

The Republican National Committee’s Rules Committee on Thursday approved the concept of calling a convention, according to Fox News.

The new rule would empower Chairman Joe Gruters “to convene a special ceremonial convention outside a presidential election cycle,” according to an RNC memo.

The memo discussed “the possibility of an America First midterm convention-style gathering aligned with President Trump’s vision for energizing the party this fall.”

Blurb:

Alexander Vindman launched a Democratic Senate campaign in Florida on Tuesday, catapulting himself back into the limelight after emerging as a key whistleblower in President Donald Trump’s first-term impeachment.

“The last time you saw me was here, swearing an oath to tell the truth about a president who broke his,” Vindman said in a launch video, referencing clips depicting his congressional testimony during Trump’s impeachment trial. “See, my family came here as refugees to escape tyranny, and I sure as hell wasn’t going to bow down to some wannabe tyrant.”

Blurb:

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was surprised by Republican Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt’s decision to miss a critical vote Thursday while Republicans work to pass their agenda with a razor-thin majority.

Hunt, who is vying in a brutal three-way Texas Senate primary, was absent while House Republicans advanced a rule teeing up votes on four appropriations bills, including a measure funding the Department of Homeland Security. Though House Republicans did not end up needing Hunt’s vote to advance the funding bills, Republican leadership has voiced irritation about the Senate hopeful’s frequent absences while he campaigns ahead of the March 3 primary.

Blurb:

Democrats have every intention of restarting lawfare against President Donald Trump and his allies the very moment he leaves office, and Republicans need to start taking that threat seriously.

At a Thursday hearing of the House Judiciary Committee, where the sole witness was get-Trump lawfare specialist Jack Smith, the former special counsel who brought bogus charges against Trump twice, Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., said the quiet part out loud in an exchange with Smith.

“Those indictments have been dismissed. Can they be re-brought or resurrected after this, after Trump leaves office?” Johnson asked.

Blurb:

A new poll suggests that the coalition that returned President Donald Trump to the White House after a four-year hiatus may be eroding.

These numbers come as Republicans seek to defend their narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections, when replicating Trump’s 2024 support levels from low-propensity voters was always going to be a challenge.

Trump has lost ground with nonwhite and younger voters, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll released on Thursday. His gains with these voters compared to 2020 helped him win the popular vote and defeat former Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris is considering another run for president in 2028, though Trump is subject to term limits.

Blurb:

The Daily Signal’s Virginia Correspondent Joe Thomas is out with a new podcast breaking down Virginia Democrats’ effort to redistrict the commonwealth.

Now that Democrats are fully in control of the commonwealth, they are moving forward with a plan that could add four Democrat seats and ultimately determine the balance of power in Washington after the 2026 midterms.

Thomas called the move, which could change the Virginia congressional delegation from six Democrats and five Republicans to 10 Democrats and just one Republican, “reactionary.”

Blurb:

A new statewide survey of likely Georgia Republican primary voters shows U.S. Rep. Mike Collins out front in a crowded GOP field, with President Donald Trump enjoying sky-high approval among the party faithful.

The poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters, conducted by conservative-leaning Public Opinion Strategies, finds Collins benefiting from strong name recognition. Seventy-one percent of voters say they are familiar with the northeast Georgia congressman, the highest of any candidate tested.

On a hypothetical primary ballot, Collins leads with 32%, well ahead of U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter at 16% and former football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. Roughly one-third of voters remain undecided. When asked to pick a second choice, respondents were scattered, underscoring how fluid the race remains.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA)

Blurb:

Rep. John James, a Michigan Republican running for governor, has launched a new ad tying the fate of Trump’s second term and the America First agenda to James’ home state of Michigan.

On Thursday, James released an ad titled “Impeached,” claiming that Michigan, with its open U.S. Senate seat and four competitive House races, is “ground zero” in the fight to keep Congress under Republican control.

Recent polling indicates that James holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary and a slight edge in the general election in November.

The ad suggests that if Congress falls into the hands of the Democrats after the 2026 midterms, Trump will be “impeached” and his “Cabinet dragged before hearings led by AOC and Rashida Tlaib,” referring to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Tlaib (D-Mich.).

In the ad, James, currently a Michigan congressman who has “backed President Trump every time,” makes the pitch to MAGA Michiganders that his election to be their next governor is vital to protecting Trump and his ability to continue implementing his policies: “If you care about President Trump, you must stand up for John James.”

Blurb:

Republicans are bleeding support among independent voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to new polling.

An Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday found that congressional Democrats have a 22-point advantage over Republicans (50% to 28%) with independent voters. With roughly 90% of likely Republican and Democratic voters planning to support their party’s respective congressional candidates in 2026, according to Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball, independents are likely to have outsized influence over November’s elections.

Blurb:

Yesterday, we shared with you that Colorado Rep. Brittany Pettersen said the Democrats are already laying the groundwork to impeach President Trump if they regain control of the House in November’s midterms. She wasn’t an outlier. Rep. Jason Crow is also saying Democrats will do everything they can to remove Trump from office if they get the power to do so.

Blurb:

A new poll on Florida’s gubernatorial race shows Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., ahead of his primary challengers by 30% or more.

The Mason-Dixon poll released on Wednesday showed the South-West Florida congressman counting on the support of 37% of Republican voters. Donalds’ closest opponent, current Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, polled at 7%. His other two opponents, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback, polled in at less than 4%.

“Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds is the only proven conservative fighter who can unite Republicans, deliver on the president’s ‘America First’ agenda, crush the Democrats, and make Florida more affordable,” Ryan Smith, chief strategist of the Byron Donalds for Governor campaign, told The Daily Signal. “Anyone running against Byron is an anti-Trump RINO and will be soundly defeated in the Republican primary.”