Germany Watch

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In a historic first, conservative leader Friedrich Merz ’s bid to become Germany’s 10th chancellor since World War II failed by six votes in parliament on Tuesday, a stunning defeat as he had been widely expected to win smoothly.

A candidate for chancellor has never failed to win on the first ballot since the end of the war. The loss triggered a stock market slide: the DAX, the index of major German companies, was down 1.8 per cent following the vote.

Merz needed a majority of 316 out of 630 votes. He only received 310 votes — well short of the 328 seats held by his coalition, which is also one of the slimmest postwar majorities. Because the vote was held by secret ballot, it was not immediately clear — and might never be known — who had defected from Merz’s camp.

Merz’s coalition is led by his center-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. They are joined by the center-left Social Democrats, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party. The parties were now to regroup to discuss the next step but it was also unclear how long the process could take.

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The influential mayor of Tübingen, Boris Palmer, is harshly criticizing the Office of the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the powerful German domestic spy agency, after it labeled the Alternative for Germany (AfD) a confirmed “right-wing extremist” party. The former Green Party politician, who won Tübingen despite switching to run as an independent, said the secret, 1,000-page report used to justify the AfD’s designation basically just listed public incidents already known to the media.

“Unless Der Spiegel is simply poorly informed, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution has compiled primarily what is publicly known,” wrote Palmer.

Take your seats, please: Germany’s parliament chamber is rearranged to reflect voters’ verdict – The Independent
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German voters have had their say. Now their verdict is being turned into reality underneath the glass dome of Berlin‘s landmark Reichstag building.

Workers on Wednesday rearranged the blue seats in the chamber of the lower house of parliament, or Bundestag.

After each election, the chairs and desks are unscrewed and put back into place to reflect the results, with aisles demarcating the seats held by different parties.

A coalition government is forming in Germany that saw the alliance of the far left Green Party with the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to prevent the rising Alliance for Deutschland party (AfD) from gaining any power despite finishing a close second to the CDU. That coalition is in peril already, thanks to a new budget proposal.

The German government on its way out, in a lame duck session, is preparing to pass a budget, one that the presumed next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is not only approving, but introducing. It includes billions of euros more in increases targeting infrastructure improvement and military expansion, all under the guise of responding to the Donald Trump threat. The stumbling block for the bill passing is the same leftist party expected to work in partnership with the CDU in the next party, the Green Party, who is threatening to vote the proposed Merz amendments down.

Germany’s Green Party rejects Merz’s spending proposals | Politics News– www.aljazeera.com
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Germany’s Green Party has threatened to torpedo plans put forward by likely incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz to invest hundreds of billions of euros in defence and infrastructure.

Merz, whose conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged the biggest in February’s legislative elections, wants in particular to relax the strict limits imposed by the “debt brake” in Germany to invest more in defence and security. His proposal comes as the country’s economy experiences prolonged stagnation and United States President Donald Trump’s direct overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin have left Europe feeling vulnerable on security.

The proposed constitutional changes to ease strict borrowing limits in the area of defence and establish a 500-billion euro ($542bn) fund for infrastructure had been described as historic when they were presented last week.

Why did Germany’s SPD party do so badly in the election? – DW (English)
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The day after Hamburg’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, March 2, cautious optimism was in the air at the Social Democratic Party (SPD) headquarters in Berlin. “The result made us smile,” said party co-chair Saskia Esken.

The SPD won 33.5% of the vote in Hamburg, more than double its February 23rd federal election result of only 16.4%. That was the SPD’s worst federal election result since 1887 ­— back when it was still called the Socialist Workers’ Party of Germany. The Bundestag election reflects a depressing, decades-long downward trend for the party.

The SPD’s 25.7% share in Germany’s last federal election in 2021, now seems to have been an anomaly. Back then, opinion polls had  put the party at 15% for months. Its surprising comeback was due to crucial mistakes by its main rival, the center-right Christian Democratic Party (CDU). Those within SPD ranks later described it like this: “We thought we had won — but it was only that the others had lost.”

German election survey: 1 in 5 voters still undecided – POLITICO Europe
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Ahead of Germany’s general election on Sunday, a significant number of potential voters remain on the fence, raising the prospect of last-minute swings that could shape the final outcome.

Twenty percent of potential voters will decide who they will vote for in the final days before the election, according to a YouGov poll conducted for the German Press Agency. That includes 7 percent who said they will decide on the day of the election.

Traditional news sources remain the primary source of election information, according to the survey; 63 percent of voters said they get their information from television, newspapers, radio, and online news portals. Conversations with family, friends, and colleagues also play an important role, with 42 percent of respondents relying on personal discussions to shape their decision.

Germany rushes to be war ready as it warns: ‘We are no longer living in peacetime’ | World | News– www.express.co.uk
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While British Army numbers have been cut, Germany is going the other way with a large expansion of troops to defend the homeland in the event of a Russian invasion.

The so-called Heimatschutz will consist of six regiments, each containing around 6,000 to 8,000 personnel by 2026. Their training is robust, ranging from shooting and survival skills to a raft of scenarios involving conflict and natural disasters.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a pledge by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to transform Germany’s Bundeswehr, or armed forces, which had been reduced by 40% after the Cold War.

According to German Chief of Defence General Carsten Breuer, Germany has “five to eight years” to prepare for a situation where “an attack against Nato territory might be possible”.

According to current figures, Germany has just over 179,000 troops in uniform. This gives Germany the sixth-largest armed forces in NATO, after the US, Turkey, Poland, France and the UK. But Germany is the EU’s most populous nation, boasting a population of 84.5 million. German chiefs know they can do better and plan to expand this to 203,000 by 2031.

AfD remain on course for record result in YouGov’s second MRP model of the 2025 German election – YouGov
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Germany’s parliamentary election is now just two-and-a-half weeks away, and YouGov’s second MRP of the campaign shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remain on course for the best result in post-war Germany for a party to the right of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU).

Our model’s central estimate projects the AfD will finish in second place, with 142 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag, as well as winning 20% of the vote. This would be roughly double the 10% they won in 2021 and matches the 20% estimated by our first MRP three weeks ago.

Nonetheless, the conservative CDU/CSU retain a clear lead on 29% of the vote (-1 compared to the first MRP) and are projected to win 207 seats.

There’s been no improvement from our first projection for the two centre-left governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, with YouGov’s second MRP model placing them on 15% and 13% of the vote respectively.

German election poll: Merz’s far-right gambit costs conservatives – POLITICO Europe
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Early signs suggest Germany’s conservatives may have lost their big bet.

Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz’s high-stakes gamble to align with the far right on tough immigration measures appears to have dealt a swift blow to his center-right alliance, with a key poll showing his conservatives sliding by two points from last week ― to 28 percent.

The German pollster Forsa, which released its most recent survey on Tuesday, marks the first snapshot of voter sentiment since Merz’s controversial maneuver last week to attempt to push through a series of tough immigration measures with the help of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, weakening Germany’s quarantine of the far right, in place since the end of World War II.