Europe Watch

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to London on Thursday, a day before a critical U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska.

“Yesterday, together with all partners, today in a bilateral format, we discussed expectations from the meeting in Alaska and possible prospects,” Zelenskyy said in a social media post after the meeting. “We also discussed in detail security guarantees that can make peace truly sustainable if the United States still manages to pressure Russia to stop the killings and engage in real meaningful diplomacy. It is important that we can all work together within a coalition of those willing to achieve effective formats for security work.”

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised President Donald Trump during a gathering of European leaders ahead of the U.S.-Russia meeting in Alaska.

Starmer, who has maintained a tense but friendly relationship with the White House, championed Trump for arranging the meeting in Anchorage on Friday.

“For three and a bit years this conflict has been going, we haven’t got anywhere near … a viable way of bringing it to a ceasefire,” Starmer said. “Now we do have that chance, because of the work that the president has put in.”

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Months of protests in Serbia reached a new intensity Wednesday night as riot police intervened to separate rival demonstrations of anti-government protesters and supporters of President Aleksandar Vucic. The president once again accused unnamed foreign powers of orchestrating the protests, which first began after the deadly collapse of a subway station sparked accusations of widespread government corruption.

Supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) threw flares and firecrackers at anti-government protesters in Novi Sad on Wednesday evening, prompting police to intervene to end the standoff, a major escalation of nine-month-long protests in Serbia.

The student-led protests in Serbia first started in November after a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad, killing 16 people and triggering accusations of corruption in state infrastructure projects.

Protests have since drawn hundreds of thousands of people, shaking President Aleksandar Vucic’s firm grip on power. His supporters have recently started organising counter-demonstrations, fuelling fears of possible violence.

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The bloc’s economy is weakening due to reduced cooperation with Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko has said

The EU’s decision to reduce energy and trade cooperation with Moscow over the Ukraine conflict has cost the bloc more than €1 trillion ($1.15 trillion), Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko has said.

In an interview with Izvestia on Monday, Grushko said the figure is based on various expert estimates of the economic consequences of the EU’s decision to impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia, adding that it accounts for lost profits from energy and trade cooperation.

According to Grushko, trade between the EU and Russia dropped from €417 billion ($482 billion) in 2013 to €60 billion ($69 billion) in 2023 and is now “approaching zero.” He added that Europe’s economy has subsequently taken a hit and is losing competitiveness.

“Natural gas in Europe is four to five times more expensive than in the US, and electricity is two to three times higher,” he said. “That is the price Europe has to pay for ending all economic contacts with Russia.”


 

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that refusing Russian gas supplies had cost EU countries around €200 billion ($231 billion). In late 2024, Russian officials also estimated that total EU losses tied to sanctions against Russia had reached $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, Moscow has said it has acquired a “certain immunity” to Western sanctions.

Grushko’s comments come after the EU agreed a trade deal with the US, which commits the bloc to purchasing large volumes of American energy – which Moscow says will come at a much steeper cost than that provided by Russia – and imposes 15% tariffs on key EU exports. Numerous EU politicians have described the agreement as lopsided and damaging to the bloc’s interests.

Commenting on the US-EU deal, Putin claimed that the EU had essentially lost its political sovereignty, and that this directly leads to losing economic independence.

The EU began imposing sanctions on Russia in 2014, following the start of the Ukraine crisis, and expanded them drastically in 2022. Measures have targeted banking, energy exports, and other industries. Moscow considers the sanctions illegal, saying they violate international trade rules and harm global economic stability.

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The Kremlin has warned that everyone should be careful about nuclear rhetoric, after Donald Trump ordered a repositioning of US nuclear submarines.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov played down the significance of Mr Trump’s announcement last Friday that he had ordered two submarines to be moved to “the appropriate regions”.

The move came after former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev made remarks about the risk of war between the nuclear-armed adversaries.

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I didn’t expect myself to suggest emulating Elon Musk this week, but X has a possible solution for age verification that Xbox should copy. One of the ways X verifies age is checking the age of an account. If an account was created before 2012, the site assumes you’re an adult now.

It’s not a perfect solution, since someone could have lied about their age back in 2012 and still be under 18 today. But I doubt any reasonable verification method will be perfect.

X has run into some issues with age verification, which Musk says are being addressed. “We are working on this,” said Musk in a post replying to a UK user who cannot verify their age on X. The Xbox team may want to copy Musk’s general idea but execute it better.

Where Microsoft and the Xbox team draw their line could be different than what X decided. Since a five-year-old is more likely to have played Xbox in the past, it’s probably worth having different rules.

But any account old enough to legally drink in the UK should be verified automatically.

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Since Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left coalition collapsed over budget squabbles and a lost confidence vote on 16 December 2024, Germany has entered an unusually tense campaign ahead of snap elections on 23 February 2025.1 The country’s political arena has moved away from long-standing centrism toward heightened polarization — a shift that is also felt in the streets. Just weeks before the elections, hundreds of thousands protested nationwide after the center-right Christian Democratic Union party’s Friedrich Merz — the likely next chancellor according to polls — relied on support from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to push a parliamentary motion for tougher migration laws.2 Although the bill was ultimately rejected and Merz ruled out any coalition with the far right, it nonetheless breached a post-war norm observed by Germany’s mainstream parties referred to as the ‘firewall,’ whereby collaboration with far-right forces was consistently avoided.3

Long seen as Europe’s engine of stability and growth, Germany is grappling with mounting challenges. A sluggish post-pandemic recovery, rising populism, and entrenched urban-rural and East-West divides have fueled discontent and polarization. Meanwhile, infighting among members of the ruling coalition and reignited debates over energy, immigration, and foreign policy have sparked street activism and bolstered the opposition.4 The AfD, in particular, is gaining ground, with polls projecting it as the second-strongest parliamentary force in the upcoming elections.5

Amid such polarization, national vote season appears to be an increasingly perilous time for German politicians. The 2024 European Parliament election campaign offered a worrying preview, as it was marred by a spate of aggressions against local centrist party officials, candidates, and campaign volunteers, while revealing a larger pattern of violence targeting politicians across the spectrum.6 Looking at both last year’s European vote and the high-stakes federal election on 23 February, this piece explores how rising polarization has intensified street activism in the form of demonstrations, both against far-right parties and government policies; it also considers whether polarization is contributing to an uptick in political violence, particularly amid the mounting tensions surrounding national elections.

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Fresh from his latest research trip to Ukraine’s battlefields, Michael Kofman joins Ryan for an insightful discussion on the shifting dynamics at the front, the role of drones in Ukraine’s defensive strategy, and the adaptation of Ukrainian military command structures in real time. They explore the political turmoil gripping Ukraine, including contentious reforms targeting anti-corruption agencies, and delve into evolving Western efforts for supplying arms to Ukraine. Their conversation also tackles the implications of President Trump’s growing frustration with Putin and provides a clear-eyed assessment of Senator Graham’s proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, and what it might mean (or, not mean) for the future of the conflict. Kofman goes into many of these issues further in his show, “The Russia Contingency,” so don’t miss out on becoming a member. Join at warontherocks.com/membership.

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President Donald Trump has set a new deadline of “ten or twelve” days for Russia to make a deal and end the war with Ukraine.

Trump has been pressuring Russia to cease hostilities or face economic repercussions, including tariffs on their key trading partners.

The deadline Trump set on July 14 was 50 days, but he said he has been “very disappointed” in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lack of effort.

“I’m going to make a new deadline, of about 10, 10 or 12 days from today,” Trump said while speaking to reporters in Scotland alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. “There’s no reason for waiting. It was 50 days. I wanted to be generous, but we just don’t see any progress being made.”

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In a charged and sobering conversation on Monday’s War Room, Nigel Farage joined Steve Bannon to issue a stark warning about the United Kingdom’s deteriorating state, highlighting societal decay, unchecked immigration, and a political class he described as “completely and utterly rotten.” Against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s second-term success—sealing the U.S. border and restructuring global trade—Farage positioned himself and the Reform UK movement as the last line of defense for Britain’s sovereignty, values, and safety.

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President Donald Trump on Friday dismissed French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state — a notably gentler response than the sharp condemnation from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other top Republicans, who blasted the move a day earlier.

“What he says doesn’t matter,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “He’s a very good guy. I like him, but that statement doesn’t carry weight.”

Macron took to X on Thursday to announce his intention for France to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly next September.

Macron took to X on Thursday to announce France’s formal recognition of the Palestinian State at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

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France will officially recognise a Palestinian state in September, President Emmanuel Macron has said, which will make it the first G7 nation to do so.

In a post on X, Macron said the formal announcement would be made at a session of the UN General Assembly in New York.

“The urgent need today is for the war in Gaza to end and for the civilian population to be rescued. Peace is possible. We need an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and massive humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza,” he wrote.

Palestinian officials welcomed Macron’s decision, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the move “rewards terror” following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack in Israel.

The US “strongly rejects” Macron’s announcement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, calling the decision “reckless”.

The G7 is a group of major industrialised nations, which alongside France includes the US, the UK, Italy, Germany, Canada and Japan.

In his Thursday post on X, Macron wrote: “True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognise the State of Palestine.

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Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky undertook the largest shakeup of top government officials since the NATO-backed proxy war between Ukraine and Russia began in February 2022. Zelensky has officially appointed a new prime minister along with reshuffling several other top cabinet positions. The primary aim of the government shakeup is to solidify Kiev’s ties with the US administration of Donald Trump. US imperialism is still Ukraine’s most important military backer.

Yulia Svyrydenko, 39, was confirmed as the country’s new prime minister on Thursday and will replace former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, who has served as prime minister since 2020. Shmyhal will remain part of the Zelensky government as the newly appointed defense minister.

Svyrydenko previously served as first deputy prime minister and minister of economic development and trade. She played the leading role in negotiating the “critical minerals deal” this past spring between Ukraine and the Trump administration that saw Ukraine hand over vast sections of its economy to US imperialism in exchange for continued military aid in the war against Russia.

“She was the key and the only person leading these negotiations. She managed to prevent them from unraveling,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former economy minister who previously worked with Svyrydenko.

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Ukraine’s SBU state security service launched a series of raids on the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) as part of an investigation into allegations that officials within the agency have been cooperating with Russia.

The SBU said on Monday that it had arrested two officials working for NABU, one a suspected Russian spy and the other over alleged business ties to Russia.

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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a cabinet reshuffle on Wednesday in a bid to regain momentum amid falling approval ratings and potential clashes with the new, opposition-backed nationalist president.
Since Karol Nawrocki’s victory over Tusk’s liberal ally Rafal Trzaskowski in June’s presidential election, dissension within the ruling pro-European coalition has grown, raising doubt about its future under a veto-wielding head of state.

German court acquits satirist over social media post following Trump assassination attempt – MSN
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A German court on Wednesday acquitted a satirist who was charged with having approved of an assassination attempt against Donald Trump during last year’s U.S. election campaign in a social media post and disturbed the public peace.

In a quickly deleted post under his alias “El Hotzo” on X in July last year, Sebastian Hotz drew a parallel between Trump and “the last bus” and wrote “unfortunately just missed.” In a follow-up post, he wrote: “I find it absolutely fantastic when fascists die.”

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Russian soldiers needing medical care returned by Ukraine

Two Russian soldiers in need of medical care were handed over by Ukrainian authorities yesterday to be returned home, the Russian defence ministry said.

A ministry statement on Telegram said the two servicemen were handed over and taken to Belarus, one of Moscow’s closest allies, on Russia’s western border. They were receiving treatment in Belarus and would soon return to Russia, it said.

The statement said the action was undertaken on the basis of agreements reached at the second of two direct meetings aimed at ending the conflict last month between Russian and Ukrainian representatives.

The two meetings in Istanbul resulted in agreements to return prisoners of war and remains of fallen soldiers, but made little progress towards an end to the more than three-year-old conflict.

Protests in Ukraine as Zelensky signs bill targeting anti-corruption bodies– www.bbc.com
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President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a bill that critics say weakens the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies, sparking protests in several cities and drawing international criticism.

Critics say the new law undermines the authority of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (Nabu) and Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (Sapo) – placing them under the control of the prosecutor general.

In an address on Wednesday, Zelensky said both agencies would still “work” but needed to be cleared of “Russian influence”.

After the bill passed, hundreds of people gathered in Kyiv for the biggest anti-government protest since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Demonstrations were also seen in the cities of Lviv, Dnipro and Odesa.

“We chose Europe, not autocracy,” said a poster held by one demonstrator. “My father did not die for this,” said another.

Ukraine’s chief prosecutor, Zelensky loyalist Ruslan Kravchenko, will now be able to reassign corruption probes to potentially more pliant investigators, and even to close them.

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Britain on Monday slapped sanctions on 135 oil tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet in a bid to disrupt the flow of money helping Moscow fund the war in Ukraine.

A shipping services company and an oil trading firm were also sanctioned as part of the crackdown on a fleet “responsible for illicitly carrying $24 billion worth of cargo since the start of 2024,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

Security analysts say the fleet of aging vessels is used by Russia to circumvent international sanctions that ban it from selling oil.

Hundreds of vessels have now been sanctioned by the European Union and the U.K. since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“New sanctions will further dismantle Putin’s shadow fleet and drain Russia’s war chest of its critical oil revenues,” Foreign Minister David Lammy said Monday.

The action came just days after “the U.K. and EU lowered the crude oil price cap further disrupting the flow of oil money into Putin’s war chest,” the ministry statement added.

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The EU on Tuesday said Ukrainian lawmakers were responsible for “a serious step back” as they voted to remove the independence of two anti-corruption agencies. Opponents say the new rules neuter the agencies ability to investigate those close to the upper echelons of politics by placing them under the command of a Prosecutor General, directly appointed by the president.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday renewed his offer to meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, but hopes of progress were low as delegations prepared to hold another round of talks.

Russian forces, meanwhile, pounded four Ukrainian cities in nighttime attacks that officials said killed a child.

Putin has spurned Zelenskyy’s previous offers of a face-to-face meeting to end Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. But the Ukrainian leader insists that lower-level delegations like the ones expected for talks in Istanbul on Wednesday don’t have the political heft to stop the fighting. The sides remain far apart on how to end the war begun by Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.

“Ukraine never wanted this war, and it is Russia that must end the war that it itself started,” Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post.

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The best way to fight back against an imperial president who is determined to rewrite history through bullying threats and intimidation is not to yield.

Former CIA Director John Brennan is one of four former intelligence officials who have been referred to the DOJ for prosecution because they wrote reports and signed letters about Russia interfering in the 2016 election to help Donald Trump.

On MSNBC’s Deadline: White House, Brennan defended the intelligence:

 Anybody who looks at the intelligence assessment and the work that was done will see that it was very carefully worded, meticulously done, and it stands up to scrutiny and to the test of time. As you pointed out, there have been numerous reviews about it, and it didn’t say any of the things that tools Gabbard alleges it said or didn’t say.

And I, I really do encourage people to read it because it was very clear in terms of what it said that the Russians were using at President Putin’s direction influenced operations to try to denigrate Hillary Clinton, try to increase the prospects for Donald Trump’s selection, and also just to undermine the integrity of our election system.

And again, those were the primary judgements. Again, they are ones that certainly I and others who were involved continue to stand behind.