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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both expressed a need for China to leverage its tight relations with Tehran to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz for “their own interests”.
03a China
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The war with Iran has once again raised questions about Washington’s ability to prioritize its interests in East Asia and particularly to manage intensifying competition with Beijing. Furthermore, the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have presented American and Chinese leaders with new challenges and potential opportunities, as they respond to the war’s global impacts. We asked five experts to address how the war is shaping competition between Washington and Beijing.
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Authorities are still investigating the reasons of the explosion, with negligence being suspected as a likely cause. Officials warned that the death toll is likely to climb as search and rescue operations continue.
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As May 2026 unfolds, the world’s attention is fixed on a high-stakes diplomatic theater. By mid-May, President Donald Trump is slated for a pivotal two-day state visit to Beijing. This visit comes at a time when the Middle East is on a knife-edge.
The geopolitical landscape is defined by a grueling stalemate: the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed by Iran in retaliation initially for the U.S.-Israeli air strikes, and now a persistent U.S. naval blockade that has strangled the Iranian economy for weeks.
While indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue via Pakistani and Omani mediators, the “ground truth” remains volatile. Despite a shaky ceasefire, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to broadcast defiance, signaling no intention of dismantling its nuclear enrichment facilities or its sophisticated ballistic missile program. At this critical juncture, the question isn’t just whether Trump can negotiate with Iran, but whether he can leverage China to force Tehran’s hand.
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So far, America has remained ahead in the new space race. But its biggest rival is making continual steps to catch up. China announced another step in that direction with the unveiling of its first ever reusable five-meter-wide composite propulsion module, announced in a press release on April 11th.
The module was designed by the China Aerospace and Technology Corporation (CASC), the primary state contractor for the Chinese space program. Specifically, it was developed at the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), which is also known as the First Academy of the CASC. It marks the largest integrated composite structure ever manufactured domestically for China’s aerospace sector. The first prototype was completed in just seven months, from initial design to delivery, underscoring the rapid development timeline.
Composites are becoming a critical feature of modern launch systems. Traditional metal components simply weigh too much. The more structural weight a launch vehicle has to carry into orbit, the less cargo or fuel it is able to carry due to the tyranny of the rocket equation. Composites are significantly lighter while still having the physical properties of metal, allowing for more payloads, or, crucially, more fuel for reentry burns.
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As major artificial intelligence breakthroughs arrive on what seems to be a near-weekly basis, the race between the US and China continues to intensify. In this post and the next, we will examine the good and bad news for the prospects of American triumph in the battle for AI superiority, a skirmish that could well determine the future of global innovation.
Let’s start with the bad news.
Last week, I attended a hearing of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party entitled “China’s Campaign to Steal America’s AI Edge.” Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) opened the proceedings by asserting that “China’s smuggling of advanced AI chips is a pervasive threat facing law enforcement” and observing that “just last month, the Department of Justice announced a $2.5 billion chip smuggling case, which would be the largest export control violation in US history.”
Moolenaar then asked, “Why is China so desperate to acquire US-designed chips? The reason is obvious. AI is a truly transformative technology. It’s already changing how we fight wars, run our government, and operate companies.” Critically, the chairman contended, “it is essential for the United States to maintain a decisive lead in the AI race. We cannot afford a future where Beijing dominates this technology.”
At the hearing, Dmitri Alperovitch, the founder and chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, echoed Moolenaar, arguing that “we are in a race, and the stakes could not be higher. Artificial intelligence will transform every industry, every battlefield, and every government.” Critically, Alperovitch asserted, “whoever fields the best models running on the best infrastructure will likely win not just the AI race itself but the 21st century. The single most important input to winning is compute—the processing power used to train and run AI models.”
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The Trump administration is rehauling its approach to wrestling influence in sub-Saharan Africa from China, an uphill battle against decades of Chinese momentum.
While the end of the Cold War saw the United States assert its unipolar moment over much of the world, this didn’t extend to sub-Saharan Africa, which ranked low on the list of U.S. priorities. The lack of U.S. interest helped facilitate China’s rise in the region, which has exploded since 2000. China’s dominance in sub-Saharan Africa has now exceeded anything ever achieved by the U.S. in the region.
The Trump administration is looking to buck this trend by drastically reworking its approach from previous administrations, switching from an aid-focused model to one of trade, a focus on critical mineral acquisition, and transactional economic cooperation.
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AI tool Claude, developed by Anthropic, suddenly announced the rollout of a new identity verification system requiring users to complete a real-time selfie check while holding a government-issued ID.
The move has drawn global attention, but for Chinese users in particular, it feels like a heavy blow that erects a difficult-to-cross “wall” in AI access.
This verification is not being applied universally to all users at once. Instead, it is being introduced gradually in specific scenarios. When users attempt to access certain advanced features, or as part of routine platform integrity checks and other safety and compliance measures, a verification prompt may appear.
The process itself appears simple and typically takes no more than five minutes. However, users must prepare a government-issued photo ID—such as a passport, driver’s license, or national ID card—and use a camera-enabled device to capture a real-time selfie.
For Chinese users, the impact of this mechanism is both broad and profound. The barrier to entry has been significantly raised: individuals without passports are excluded from using Claude.
Even for those who do have passports, older accounts may become valuable assets, while new users face hurdles due to real-name verification requirements, making normal access increasingly difficult.