Tuesday’s election results struck fear into Republicans’ hearts about what they might mean for the party’s fragile congressional majorities a year from now.
Democrats felt similarly lost a year ago, when Republicans won unified control of the federal government. Now, for the first time in President Donald Trump’s second term, the roles are reversed.
The predictive power of off-year elections is mixed, and next year’s races will play out in a much wider swathe of the country. Some things should concern Republicans about the 2026 midterm elections, while other worries are overblown.
No guarantee of 2026 blue wave
Democrats won nearly every important election this year, a near-clean sweep. The outcomes weren’t surprising since Democrats consistently led in most polls and were at least within the margin of error in the Virginia attorney general’s race, but the size of some of these wins was greater than expected.
For example, Democrats led in the New Jersey governor’s race, a state that has consistently teased and then disappointed Republicans in recent years. The GOP’s hopes for an upset rested on gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli overperforming his poll numbers like he did in a close 2021 loss. This time, the Democrats’ lead was much smaller, but Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) outperformed her poll numbers and won the governor’s race by more than 13 points.
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